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Knowshon Moreno got a small dose of the NFL last year as Denver limited his carries with five games of ten or fewer carries. They wanted to make sure they didn’t overwork the rookie. Despite getting a little over 15 carries per game on the year, Moreno had 1160 yards (947) rushing and 9 TDs (7 rushing).

In the games he topped 15 carries he averaged 89.8 total yards (74.8 rushing) with 4 TDs in nine games. True, he never topped 100 rushing yards in any game on the year, but clearly the potential is there.

I expected him to have a more prominent role in the offense this year as he is their top weapon now that Brandon Marshall is gone, but his hamstring injury has me worried. Depending on how he responds to the injury, his numbers could be dramatically lowered. However, it happened at the right time and maybe he doesn’t miss much time. Not only could he eventually see more 15+ carry games once he’s back to full strength, but he could also see an increase in the 28 catches he had last year.

When all is said Moreno has the chance to be a top 15 RB (click to see my 2010 RB rankings) with 1450 total yards (1150 rushing), close to 40 catches, and 8 TDs.

People are going to be scared off because of his injury. I don’t blame them. His ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 32, but that number is going to drop. I will still take a chance on  him though. I just like his upside. He is a powerful runner that can score TDs and catch passes. He’s young, athletic, and didn’t get overworked last year. Without Marshall the Broncos should be a more run-oriented offense, which could lead to a monster season for the second year back.

What do you expect from Knowshon Moreno?

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Things looked rather grim for Broncos fans earlier today when both Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno went down with injuries. Things look a little better now though when Buckhalter’s injury was rule and upper back pull rather than a leg injury. Moreno’s injury was feared a hamstring tear, but it has been called a bad strain. He has six weeks to recover, which should mean he’ll be ready to go in the early part of the season. The injury could actually be a blessing in disguise as he could be fresh at the end of the year when fantasy owners are counting on him the most. Stay tuned to see the severity of the injury.

To say Josh McDaniels has taken an unconventional approach with the Broncos would be an understatement. In successive years he has shipped out one of the most physically gifted QBs (Jay Cutler) and WRs (Brandon Marshall). He has also staked his reputation on Tim Tebow, who has varying opinions as to how well his game will translate to the next level. There are some fantasy options, but it’s a far cry from the glory days with Shanahan. At least at this point.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:   Moderately Difficult
The Broncos take on the Cardinals, who have consistency issues on defense, in Arizona, the Raiders in Oakland, and the Texans at home. In years past, this may have been a breeze, but Oakland’s defense is improved and the Texans could have one of the better units in the league with all of their young talent.

Five Star Fantasy Options
None

Four Star Fantasy Options
Knowshon Moreno – Knowshon failed to top 100 yards in any game last year, but he did manage two multiple TD games. He also added 28 catches for 213 yards and a pair of scores. It wasn’t an overwhelming rookie season, but he did manage 1160 total yards and 9 total TDs. He should have a more prominent role in the offense this year.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Broncos Defense/Special Teams – The Broncos have some nice match-ups starting with a pair of games against the Chiefs and Raiders. They also take on the Jags, Seahawks, and Rams. Plus, one of their tilts with the Chargers is in Week 17, which renders it meaningless in most fantasy circles.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Kyle Orton – I have him as a two star, but that’s really give or take a star. First he has to hold off Brady Quinn. Then he has to play well enough to pick up some wins. If the team struggles I don’t see a long leash for Orton. They will want to see what they have in Quinn. I don’t think Tebow will take too many snaps as the primary QB. He’ll likely get some time running the Wildcat offense.

Correll Buckhalter – Buckhalter will take on more of a secondary role with the Broncos given his age and injury history. He still has something to offer, but Moreno is clearly the more explosive back.

Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal, and Jabar Gaffney – I can see all of these guys havin 50-60 catches, but nobody will stand out from the crowd consistently. Their aggregate numbers will be OK, but will be hard to rely on week-to-week.

One Star Fantasy Options
Brady Quinn – Quinn should see the playing field at some point. Depending on how he plays, he can shoot up the ranks. Orton is steady with limited upside. Quinn offers more physically. It just a matter of whether he gets the opportunity and if he’s mentally prepared.

Brandon Stokley and Eric Decker – I’m not as high on this pair of WRs, but they could factor in the mix at times as well.

Daniel Graham – He’s more or a blocking TE than anything else, but could see some looks in the red zone now that Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler are gone.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

By Marc Mancuso

These are the guys who will be fantasy relevant in 2009.  They are must drafts for keeper leagues.   Opportunity is the key to rookie value and all of these players will see significant PT this year.

QB   Mark Sanchez,  NYJ  — All indications are that Sanchez will start for the Jets.  He will definitely face ups and downs in his first season, but if the Jets can establish a strong running game, and he gets help from his talented WR’s and emerging star TE Dustin Keller, Sanchez may begin to pay dividends for Rex Ryan in Year 1.

RB:   Knowshown Moreno – The RB situation is getting clearer in Denver, with the release of JJ Arrington and Ryan Torain.    With Correll Buckhalter expected to play the Kevin Faulk role, and LaMont Jordan looking more like a situational back, Knowshown will emerge despite his holdout.  

RB:   James Davis, CLE  – Opportunity is everything in fantasy football.  Considering Jamal Lewis’ health, an uncertain QB situation, an O Line which is vastly improved, and a conservative coach in Eric Mangini, James Davis has opportunity.   Davis is a talented back with running an receiving skills who stayed in school and subsequently saw his draft status drop before the NFL draft, and backs up an aging vet with some injury concerns–this sounds a lot like Steve Slaton in 2008.

WR:  Hakeem Nicks, NYG  – Eli Manning needs a big receiver in the Plaxico mold and Nicks fits perfectly.  While his route running is still developing, as the “X” it relies less on precision patterns, and more on athleticism  to get Eli’s jump balls.     Nicks has little competition and should contribute right away.

WR:   Jeremy Maclin, PHI  – Maclin missed 15 days of camp, but he is already making an impact on the coaching staff.   It will take time for Maclin to adjust to the West Coast offense coming from a spread he had at Missouri, but DeSean Jackson will be getting a lot of double teams, meaning Maclin will get his share of looks.    Don’t expect a lot in the first part of the season, but as he gets familiar,  Marty Mornhinweg will find ways to get him involved.   It’s a make or break year for Philadelphia, so expect to see Reid open up the playbook this season.

WR:  Percy Harvin, MIN — Brad Childress needs to keep teams from stacking up against Adrian Peterson, and a guy like Harvin will help him spread the field and open the playbook as a receiving and running threat.

TE:    Jared Cook, TEN  — Cook is getting rave reviews with the aging Alge Crumpler and Bo Scaife as his only competition.     Fisher still plays a very conservative brand of offense, so expect lots of running, and dink and dunk.    

Notes:   You were probably expecting to see Beanie Wells on this list.   Two of the most underappreciated pieces of success in fantasy are durability and opportunity.   Beanie has already gotten nicked this preseason and I’m concerned about his ability to stay healthy, which he could never do at Ohio State.   Tim Hightower may not be the answer, but Arizona is a pass first team, and I don’t see them becoming a smash mouth team.   Reports from camp indicate Wells has fallen short of expectations thus far.

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Knowshon Moreno finally came to terms with the Denver Broncos.  Thankfully his holdout didn’t extend too far into Training Camp for Moreno to have a major setback.  He obviously won’t start the first couple of preseason games, but he should be able to get plenty of opportunities to compete for the starting Tailback gig.

Moreno was selected with the 12th pick in the NFL Draft, which is significant considering the shape their Defense was in last year.  He has the strength to run between the tackles, the speed to get outside, and the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.  He’ll have to show he can pick up the blitz and he could be a three-down back eventually.  He’ll be pushed by fellow newcomer Correll Buckhalter, but Buck has been an career backup with a history of knee injuries, so I wouldn’t count on him to have too heavy of a workload.

Playing in the AFC West, Denver has some nice matchups.  They face Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland to start the season, so it’s important he win the starting job by then.  He has another nice three game stretch starting in Week 13 when the Broncos face the Chiefs, and going into the fantasy playoffs when they face Indianapolis and Oakland again.  It’s not all a walk in the park though as Denver takes on New England (Week 4), Baltimore (Week 8), Pittsburgh (Week 9), Washington (Week 10), New York Giants (Week 12), and Philadelphia (Week 16).

If you’ve drafted already, perhaps you were able to sneak him a little later, but now that he’s signed he’ll likely go in the third or fourth round of fantasy drafts.  I’m expecting 1200 total yards and 8 TDs with 45 receptions.

Some of the best breakout performers in football fantasy leagues are rookies, who we’re not quite sure what we are going to get from.  Let’s take a look at who my Top 5 rookie running backs will be for this season.

1. Knoshown Moreno – Denver Broncos
He was ranked #19 on my Top 25 running backs list (click here to view), so naturally he’s going to take the top spot on this list.  He was the first back off the board, taken #12 overall, and enters the season with little competition in the backfield.  Does anyone really think Correll Buckhalter or LaMont Jordan offer much of a threat to his carries at this point?

Despite Mike Shanahan no longer leading the way, the Broncos have long been a team capable of creating running backs seemingly from nothing.  Moreno should be the next in a long line of success stories as he develops into a must use option in all formats.

2. Chris Wells – Arizona Cardinals
The other rookie who found his way into my Top 25 (#22), he posted back-to-back 1,000+ yards, averaging 5.9 and 5.8 yards per carry.  That may be college, but it is still worth noting.

With Edgerrin James jettisoned during the off-season, his prime competition will be Tim Hightower (399 yards and 10 TD last season).  I would be surprised if they didn’t at least split carries, but Wells has significantly more upside and should ultimately see the bulk of the carries.  He may lose some TD potential by sharing time with Hightower (which is the major difference between himself and Moreno), but that’s something that can be said about many at this point in the NFL.

3. Donald Brown – Indianapolis Colts
Even with Joseph Addai, the Colts saw an opportunity to add talent to the backfield and quickly took it.  It’s tough to imagine drafting a running back in the first round not to give him significant carries, so you have to imagine the Brown is going to get a chance to shine.

While Addai struggled last season, playing in only 12 games and picking up 544 yards, he began his career with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons.  It’s hard to imagine him not getting an opportunity to play as well, which certainly will decrease Brown’s potential value.  That’s what keeps him a step behind the other two backs selected in the first round, he’s definitely in a situation to share carries.

4. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles
Make no mistake, McCoy is going to be the back to provide a rest for Brian Westbrook, who we all know always tends to be battling an injury.  If Westbrook were to go down, opening up more playing time for McCoy, he could prove to have significant value for fantasy owners in all formats.  At this point, however, he’s not likely to be more of a bye week fill-in, as he doesn’t have the potential to put up huge numbers on a week-to-week basis.

5. Andre Brown – New York Giants
Last season the Giants employed a three running back set, with Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw.  With Ward now calling Tampa Bay home, the Giants needed a new back to join their three-headed monster.  In the fourth round out N.C. State, they may have found that man.

At 6′0″, 224 lbs., his stature is very similar to that of Ward and the Giants may lean on him to mimic his performance if they determine that Bradshaw is better suited as a third down back.  If that were to happen, Brown could see significant carries and really be a weapon in deeper fantasy formats.  Wait and see, but he’s a player worth keeping an eye on.

Honorable Mention: Shonn Greene, New York Jets

What do you think of these rookies?  Who will have the biggest performance?  Who’s likely to fall flat?

The Denver Post is reporting that J.J. Arrington was cut by the Denver Broncos.  His release was due in part to a knee injury that has kept him off the practice field and in part to overcrowding.  The Broncos signed Arrington, Correll Buckhalter, and LaMont Jordan in the offseason before drafting Knowshon Moreno with the 12th overall pick in recent NFL Draft. 

Arrington will catch on somewhere when he proves healthy, but will have minimal fantasy value as a third down back.

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Yesterday we profiled Beanie Wells.  Today we’ll take a look at Knowshon Moreno, the other top Running Back.  Moreno was an absolute beast at Georgia running for 1336 yards on 248 carries (5.4 ypc) with 14 TDs as a Freshman and 1400 yards on 250 carries (5.8) with 16 TDs as a Sophomore.  He added 53 receptions for 645 yards and 2 TDs.
 
Knowshon has the perfect RB build (5’11″, 217 Lbs), but was surprisingly slower than expected at the Combine and in his Pro Day.  According to Rob Rang from The SportsXchange, NFLDraftScout.com ”He was stunningly disappointing at the combine, running in the 4.6s and posting the lowest vertical jump of any running back tested (25 inches), according to NFL.com. Moreno elected not to jump at his Pro Day and again was clocked in the 4.6s, despite weighing in seven pounds lighter.”  While he may lack explosive speed, he makes up for it with his instincts, vision, quickness and elusiveness.  Even though his measurables didn’t meet expectations, his track record at Georgia and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield should allow him to be a first round selection and an effective every down back in the NFL. 

Here’s a look at where some of the experts have him pegged:
Scott Wright’s Draft Countdown:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals

WalterFootball.com:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals

Draft King:  #17 to the New York Jets

Consensus Draft Services:  #9 to the Green Bay Packers

The Football Expert:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals

War Room Report:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals