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Lance Berkman was hitting .214 on April 10th. He had yet to hit a home run and had just one RBI. He had an OPS of .576. If you dropped him from your team, you are kicking yourself right now, but the move was understandable.
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In his 16 games since Berkman has hit .474 with eight home runs and 21 RBI, bringing his average up to .393 and his OPS to 1.207. You’d be nuts to consider trading  him…or would you?
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He’s not going to continue to pound the ball like that all year. He’s a lifetime .297 hitter that has topped .320 just once. He hit .248 last year and .274 the year before. The power will still be there, but it will also slow. He hasn’t had a 1.000+ OPS since 2006, but he regularly produces a .900 or better OPS. It’s quite evident that last year was just a down year, and not the start of a major decline.
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The point is, while I expect him to continue to be productive, his value will likely never be higher. I’m not saying just give him away, but if you can get a king’s ransom for him, go for it.
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He has dealt with back issues in the past, which can return at any time. Once the back goes, the power is soon to follow. While players have been able to turn back the time and extend their careers, it should not be overlooked that Lance is 35. As the season wears on he will get some rest. He has already sat three of the Cardinals’ 21 games, which is good for 11 percent. If you extrapolate that over the course of the year, he would miss 18 games.
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Sure, he can do plenty of damage in 144 games, but if you can improve your teams based on his hot start, I would certainly entertain quality offers. I’d also dangle him to teams struggling in the power department. Selling high on a 35-year-old isn’t the worst thing you can do.
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Also check out:

• Week Six Two-start Pitchers
• Today’s Streaming Pitcher Option
• Yesterday’s Box Score Breakouts

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Maybe has-been is too strong of a word for Berkman, but his HR total has dipped three straight years, and his numbers took a pretty sharp decline last year thanks to injuries. He’s no longer considered a second round pick. Even the third round seems premature for my 11th ranked first basemen (click to see rankings).

His 2009 dip is actually not that uncommon for Berkman. His even year/odd year splits since 2002 are staggering.

Even year averages:  .309, 104.8 runs, 36.5 HRs, 119 RBIs, 9.5 SBs
Odd year aveages:  ..283, 88.5 runs, 27 HRs, 89.3 RBIs, 5.8 SBs

If his eight-year trend were to continue, his fantasy owners would be in store for a big payday. For a guy that turns 34 tomorrow (happy early birthday Lance), I don’t quite see that happening. At his age, injuries are more likely to pop up, and you’re more likely to take longer to recover from them, especially as the season wears on. 

The good news if you’re trying to draft him, he’s historically does the bulk of his damage in the first half of the season. His  OPS (.994 compared to .937) is significantly better before the All-Star game. His AB/HR ratio is 15.3 before the break and 18.9 after it. He also has 0.76 RBIs per game before the break and 0.63 after it.  The past two years, in particular, he had 40 HRs before the break and 14 after it.

My suggestion if you take Berkman in your draft is to try to move him in July or early August. Get good value as you head down the home stretch.

Prediction:  .300, 90 runs, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 4 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin

Now an early look at the NL Central.

1. Can the Cubs’ offense bounce back?
Geovany Soto had a miserable season hitting .218. He was brilliant in Triple-A Iowa in 2007 and had an amazing Rookie season. I fully expect him to bounce back in 2010. Even if he is an average of his past two years, he’d have a decent season. Just don’t reach for him. Assuming Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano can stay healthy, they should have better seasons as well. Marlon Byrd hit 70 percent of his HRs at Rangers Ballpark so I expect him to take a step back in Chicago. At his age (34), I don’t expect Derrek Lee to match the 35 HRs and 111 RBIs. As a whole, though, I do think the Cubs will be much-improved on offense next year thanks to the addition by subtraction of Milton Bradley.

2.  Can Carlos Marmol get it done at Closer?
His BAA was equally nasty as a closer and a setup man, though his ERA and WHIP both improved when he took over at closer. He has both the stuff and demeanor to get the job done. I think he can be a high-end closer next year despite entering the season with just23 career Saves.

3.  Is Joey Votto set to bust out big time?
Joey’s average and OPS  soared dramatically in his second full season. Despite playing in 20 fewer games he had 13 more runs, six more doubles, one more HR, the same amount of RBIs, and 11 more walks. As long as he stays healthy, Votto should emerge as one of the games best hitters.

4. How about Jay Bruce?
I’m not sure he’ll light the world on fire, but he should be improved. Hard not to when you hit .223. I’m encouraged by the way he played in September when he hit .353 with 4 HRs and 16 RBIs in 34 ABs.

5. Is Lance Berkman’s dip a sign of things to come?
I don’t think so. He’s about as steady as they come. Gone are the days of 40 HRs and 120 RBIs, but he should still be good for 30 & 110.

6. Is Tommy Manzelli going to be a viable fantasy option?
I don’t think so. He didn’t exactly put up monster numbers for Triple-A Round Rock last year, hitting .289 with 68 runs, 9 HRs, 56 RBIs, and 12 SBs in 530 ABs.

7.  Is Casey McGehee for real?
He had an impressive Rookie season hitting .301 with 58 runs, 16 HRs, and 66 RBIs in 355 ABs. I like the way he responded in September hitting .337 with 5 HRs and 26 RBIs after struggling in August hitting .241. I wouldn’t want him as a starter, but his 2B/3B eligibility make him a decent bench option.

8.  Can Garrett Jones continue to be a power threat?
He certainly hit his share with 21 in 314 ABs for a 14.9 AB/HR ratio. It is highly unlikely that he can maintain that ratio. His OPS of .939 was also significanly higher than the majority of his minor league stints.

9.  Will Mark McGwire be a distraction?
I don’t think so. He came clean early enough where is shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Cards.

10.  Will Ryan Franklin continue to be an elite closer?
Franklin was one of the surprise closers last year when he recorded 38 saves with a 1.92 ERA. His numbers were significantly worse after the All-Star break.

0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, .165 BAA
3.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .284 BAA

While he was a pleasant surprise last year, I see no reason to believe he can match his 2009 production.

Things went from bad to worse for Lastings Milledge.  First he got demoted by the Washington Nationals, and then he breaks his finger laying down a bunt for Triple-A Syracuse.  He could miss two months.  He hit .167 (4 for 24) with 1 RBI and 10 Ks in seven games with the Nationals.  He was hitting .253 in 22 games for Syracuse.

Chien-Ming Wang had a spectacular, and scary, rehab start for the Yankees at Triple A-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.  Wang threw six scoreless Innings giving up three Hits with 3 Walks and 6 Ks.  He also was hit by a line drive, but was able to stay in the game.  With a 34.50 ERA and 4.83 WHIP in three losses for the Yankees, he’ll have a couple more rehab starts to make sure he’s ready.

The Diamondbacks got mixed news as Stephen Drew returned from the DL.  Unfortunately Conor Jackson went on it.  Both hitters are struggling.  Drew was hitting .205 before injuring his hamstring.  Jackson was  hitting .182, though he was third on the team with 14 RBI.  The Diamondbacks are not sure what’s wrong with Jackson.  According to a report on MLB.com, it’s a “general illness”.

Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Josh Hamilton, and Chipper Jones are in the lineup for their respective clubs.  Kevin Youkilis remains out for Boston.

Thursday, August 14th
Mark Kotsay went 5 for 5 as he hit for the Cycle and had 2 RBI.  Cliff Floyd had 4 Walks and scored 4 Runs.  Jim Thome, Big Papi, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Ludwick, and Lance Berkman each had 3 RBI.  Jeff Francoeur (3 RBI), Paul Konerko, Bobby Crosby, Dustin Pedroia, Jed Lowrie, Chris Dickerson, Freddy Sanchez, Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar (3 RBI), and Lou Montanez each had 3 Hits.

Todd Wellemeyer gave up 3 Hits in 7-2/3 scoreless Innings to improve to 10-4 with a 3.79 ERA.  Dice-K tossed 7 scoreless Innings with 6 Ks to improve to 14-2 with a 2.74 ERA.  Hiroki Kuroda gave up 1 Run on 2 Hits with 7 Ks to improve to 7-8 with a 3.88 ERA.  Jake Peavy gave up 1 Run on 4 Hits in 7 Innings with 8 Ks to improve to 9-8 with a 2.61 ERA.  Armando Galarraga gave up 1 Run on 6 Hits in 8 Innings with 6 Ks to improve to 11-4 with a 3.10 ERA.  Dan Haren gave up 2 Runs in 8 Innings with 9 Ks to improve to 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA.  Jesse Litsch gave up 4 Hits in 7 scoreless Innings, but got a no-decision.  Ian Snell gave up 2 Runs in 6 Innings, but lost.