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A flurry of activity is expected to take place in the next couple of weeks. Free agency will be the biggest piece of the puzzle to shape the 2011 fantasy football landscape, but trades will also play a major role.
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Three possible trade scenarios will have the biggest ripple effect for fantasy football owners.
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The Big Fish:  Kevin Kolb
Kolb is the name you’ve been hearing the most during the lockout. He’ll likely be the biggest name that is dealt, and will also likely shake things up the most. No matter where he’s dealt, he’ll be the starter so he’ll instantly find a place in most top 25 fantasy quarterback rankings. You probably won’t start him unless you are in a two-quarterback league, but he will find his way on fantasy teams as a QB2.
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The Kolb Factor Part I
No matter where Kolb is dealt you’ll see increased value for the receivers he’ll be targeting. The most likely destination is Arizona, which makes Larry Fitzgerald the prime beneficiary. Fitz had a solid season (90 catches, 1137 yards, six TDs) with Larry, Moe, and Curly at quarterback so getting a competent signal caller should return Fitz to the elite tier of fantasy receivers. The rest of the Cardinals’ receivers should get a boost as well, but none are worthy of being on most fantasy rosters. If the Eagles land Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the trade their fantasy defense will get up boost.
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The Kolb Factor Part II
This one is more of an insurance issue. If Michael Vick were to get hurt again, the Eagles’ skill position players like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Brent Celek could take a hit without as capable a backup in place. I wouldn’t change my rankings for any of those players, but it is something to keep in mind.
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Quietly Effective:  Kyle Orton
Orton was almost a secondary thought in the Jay Cutler trade, but he’s thrown for 7454 yards and 41 TDs (21 INTs) compared to 6940 yards, 50 TDs, and 42 INTs. Obviously if Orton gets a starting gig, he will once again have fantasy value again. I’d have to adjust my top 20 fantasy quarterback rankings to get him in.
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The Orton Effect
Like Kolb, a trade would hurt the contingency plans for the Broncos’ skill players should Tim Tebow get hurt. I wouldn’t bump Brandon Lloyd in the rankings, but I would be a little more concerned if I drafted him. He is rumored to land in Miami, which would help Brandon Marshall’s value immensely. Marshall would jump into the top 15 of my 2011 fantasy football wide receiver rankings.
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Should Be, But Won’t:  Carson Palmer
The Bengals are moving on. They selected Andy Dalton in the 2011 NFL Draft and it sounds like he’s going to get every opportunity to open the season as the Bengals’ starting quarterback. If Carson Palmer were traded he would find himself among the 2011 top 25 fantasy football quarterbacks. Mike Brown is stubborn though so a Palmer deal seems unlikely.
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When I put my early 2011 fantasy football wide receiver rankings together I struggled deciding between Larry Fitzgerald and Dwayne Bowe for the final spot to round out the top five. When my friend asked me if we had a draft tomorrow if I would really take Fitz over Bowe. I stuck with my rankings, but decided to explore it further.
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I have always been a huge Larry Fitzgerald fan, both for his ability on the field and the way he carries himself off of it. Even with the warning signs heading into last year (Kurt Warner’s retirement, Anquan Boldin’s departure) I ranked him number three heading into the season.
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He didn’t have a bad season by any means, as Fitz caught 90 passes for 1137 yards and six touchdowns. It was his fourth straight 1000+ yard season (would have been six if he wasn’t limited to 13 games in 2006), but it was a far cry from what he’s done recently. The previous five seasons saw Fitz top 1400 yards on three occasions and record double-digit touchdowns on four.
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Meanwhile Dwayne Bowe went gangbusters. Bowe finished with fewer receptions (72) than Fitz, but had a little more yardage (1162). The major difference was in touchdowns scored. Bowe led all receivers with 15 scores, trailing only Arian Foster (18) for the league lead. He had three more scores than the next two receivers (Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson). They were also the most in the league since Randy Moss’ record-setting 2007 campaign (23).
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There are some concerns with Bowe. Charlie Weis is gone. Bowe had just 16 touchdowns in his first three seasons in the league. His 1162 yards were a career high. Conditioning has been a concern in the past, with is worrisome without OTAs.
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Bowe is in a contract year though so he has plenty of reasons to stay in shape.
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Choosing Bowe over Fitz mainly comes down to Arizona quarterback situation. If the Cardinals trade for Kyle Orton or Kevin Kolb then I would most likely switch the two. There are no guarantees that they will land either of them so I’ll stick with Bowe over Fitz for now.
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Who do you like heading into the 2011 season?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football RB Rankings

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This week’s topic:
Who will be the fantasy football Bounceback Player of the Year?

Click here for the full article.

My response:
While there are certainly a number of players that fit the bill, I’m going with Larry Fitzgerald. The stud receiver has been an elite fantasy option four of the past six years. He has three 1400+ yard seasons. He has four 10+ touchdown seasons. He’ll be 28 next year, so I’m certain he can rebound.
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Not that he has all that far to rebound. He did manage 90 catches for 1137 yards and six touchdowns.  He had a pair of 125 yard games in the final three weeks to give him that solid yardage total. What I’m expecting is more consistency out of Fitz this year. That is, after all, what he’s been known for.
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Last year had five games in which he failed to score a touchdown or produce over 61 yards. He had four games with three or fewer catches. He only had six double-digit fantasy scoring weeks in non-PPR leagues. Basically Fitz just wasn’t himself. Before you think I’m throwing him completely under the bus, I know that the root of the problem was the quarterback play.
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I knew Kurt Warner’s departure would hurt Fitz, but I underestimated the extent of it. Matt Leinart had studied under Warner and I figured he’d at least learn from osmosis. Yeah, he was quickly shown the door. Instead Fitz was left to sink or swim with the likes of Derek Anderson (65.9 passer rating), John Skelton (62.3 passer rating), Max Hall (35.7 passer rating), and Richard Bartel (57.1 passer rating). It’s amazing that Larry did as well as he did.
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I think the Cardinals will address this ineptitude this offseason, via the NFL Draft or via free agency (if and when they come to a labor agreement). With stability under center, look for Fitz to turn in a much better performance in 2011.

Fitz let a lot of owners down.
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Championship Week continued as the Cardinals beat the Cowboys on Christmas in a game that likely didn’t pull too many people away from their Christmas parties.
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Let’s take a look at how last night’s game will affect your roster decisions for today’s games.
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Quarterbacks:  Jon Kitna (115 yards, TD, two INTs, seven rushing yards) had a stinker. Not only did he throw a pair of picks, he got knocked out of the game. If you started him, you’re in trouble. You may have to take some risks with your remaining roster. If you used John Skelton (183 passing yards, TD, 23 rushing yards) had a solid game for those who used him, likely in two-quarterback leagues.
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Running Backs: Felix Jones (88 total yards) was good, not great. If you were banking on a big game from Felix, you’ll need to look elsewhere for a breakout game. Tim  Hightower (29 total yards) turned in a dud, and will likely yield carries to Beanie Wells (47 yards) in the finale. Neither are good plays next week. Marion Barber III (58 yards, TD) returned, effectively ending Tashard Choice‘s (32 total yards) fantasy run.
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Wide Receivers:  Miles Austin (115 yards, TD) did his thing. Not quite enough to alter lineup plans, but he’ll make up for ground for those who didn’t meet their projections. Larry Fitzgerald (26 yards) had just one catch. He wasn’t even on Skelton’s radar as he had just three targets. Steve Breaston did not even catch a pass. Andre Roberts (110 yards, TD) stole the show, but was not in many lineups. Roy Williams was a non-factor.
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Tight Ends: Jason Witten (45 yards, TD) did not have one of his monster weeks, but he was good enough, especially in PPR leagues..
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Kickers:  David Buehler did not take the day off as he kicked two long field goals (42, 53) and twp PATs. Hopefully his missed PAT does not cost you. Jay Feely had three PATs through three quarters before delivering with two long field goals (49, 48) for the Cardinals and fantasy owners alike.
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Defenses:  Arizona gave up 26 points, but returned both of Dallas’ interceptions to the house. Couple that with their fumble recovery and five sacks and you have a surprising strong performance. Dallas gave up 27 points, did not force a turnover, and had just one sack to disappoint once again.
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Also check out:

• Week 16 Get ‘em or Don’t Sweat ‘em Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 16 Fantasy QB Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy RB Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy WR Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy TE Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy K Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy DEF Rankings
• Week 16 Fantasy IDP Rankings
• Week 16 Start/Sit Advice
• Week 16 Fantasy Sleepers

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There are plenty of WRs that came into the season with high expectations. While the following WRs have not been productive, it’s not because they aren’t on their quarterbacks radar. When you’re being ignored in the passing game, you have a problem. When you are getting your looks, there is hope. Here are some players to be patient with if you own them, or try to trade for them if you don’t.
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Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals:  Fitz is third in league in the league with 35 targets. Sure, he’s only caught 12 passes, but you have to at least be encouraged by the effort Arizona is making to get him the ball. This may be lowest his stock is all year. Be aggressive if you want to get him. Make them overwhelm you if you own him.
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Terrell Owens, Cincinnati Bengals:  T.O. probably isn’t happy with his 14 catches on the year, but he can’t have a gripe the 33 targets he’s received, which is just one short of Ocho’s. He has yet to score a TD this year, but is a good bet to score #145 this weekend against Cleveland.
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Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions:  Megatron has caught half of his 28 targets this year. He has just 151 yards and has just 1 TD, though most would argue he should have two. Losing Matthew Stafford didn’t help matters, but he should be returning soon. He hasn’t topped 56 yards in a game this year. Get him while he’s low.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

You aren’t going to find many bigger Larry Fitzgerald fans than yours truly. I have forever loved the way he approaches the game. He learned how to prepare for an NFL season from Cris Carter and followed in his footsteps of gathering WRs around the league for a grueling camp.

Not only does he prepare intensely, and take young players under his wing (Sidney Rice last year for example), but he never seems to be in conflict with the team or his teammates, let alone not getting in trouble off the field.

On the field is where he truly captivates me. He does not have blazing speed, but he simply finds a way to get it done. He has great hands, footwork, leaping ability, vision, etc. I should stop before I am accused of a man-crush on Fitz.

In six NFL seasons he has averaged 87.2 catches for 1177.8 yards (13.5 ypc), and 9.8 TDs. In four of his last five years he had at least 96 catches and double-digit TDs. In three of his last five years he had 1400+ receiving yards.

He’s been just a bout a sure thing for double-digit TDs as any RB out there the past few years. Not only did I consider him a first round pick last year, I considered him a mid-round (6-8) first round pick.

Things have changed though. Kurt Warner is gone and Matt Leinart is at the helm. Leinart has had his share of bumps and bruises, but he has had some success with Fitz in the past.

In 2006 they played in eight games together when Leinart was the starting QB. Fitz averaged 5.25 catches for 74 yards with 4 TDs. Those aren’t the numbers you have come to expect from Fitz, but he has come a long way from 2006. I am counting on Leinart to do the same when he’s finally given another chance this year.

Not only did he lose his QB, but Fitz lost his running mate. While Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are quality WRs, they aren’t Anquan Boldin. I’m not sure how much that will affect Fitz though. Last year Boldin missed Week 9 and Fitz torched Chicago for 123 yards and 2 TDs. In 2008 Boldin missed Weeks 5, 6, 16 & 17 and Fitz caught 20 passes for 362 yards and 6 TDs in his absence. In 2007 Boldin was out Weeks 4, 5, 6 & 14 and Fitz caught 31 passes for 432 yards and 2 TDs in those four games.

I also think the Cardinals will lean much heavier on the run with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower taking some of the pressure off of Leinart. Kurt Warner was an elite talent so it made sense to rely on his arm. Leinart has ability, but there is going to be a philosophy change in the desert.

I’m not expecting another 1400 yard season for Fitz, but I do have him ranked high among WRs (click to see rankings) with a projection of 100 catches for 1250 yards and 10 TDs. Those are first round numbers, but I can see the argument that I’m being overly optimistic.

Mock Draft Central has Fitz with an ADP of 11. I would put him right around there as well. I would prefer RBs like AP, Chris Johnson, MJD, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ray Rice, and Steven Jackson over Fitz. I would also rather have WRs Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne as well. I do like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees a lot, but I’d rather grab Fitz and settle for a Manning, Brady, Romo, Schaub, or Rivers later.

That puts Fitz at the 10th pick in my book, so yes I do consider him a first round pick still. Remember, I may be a little biased since I am such a big fan, but there aren’t many guys that you can basically pencil in for 1000+ yard and 10 TDs. I believe Fitz remains on of them.

What do you expect from Larry Fitzgerald?

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Image courtesy of Icon SMI

A typical fantasy football league consists of 12 teams nine starters (QB, two RBs, three WRs, TE, K, D) and anywhere from five to seven bench players. If you go with the latter bench allotment, you’re looking at 16 roster spots or 192 draft picks. By that definition, any sleeper should have an average draft position about 180 or lower.

Arizona Cardinals WR Early Doucet sports an ADP of 263 according to Mock Draft Central. That would make him the eleventh pick of the 21st round and somewhere around the 85th WR taken. That would make him a WR7 in 12-team leagues, or most likely not on a roster.

I feel he has the upside to warrant taking a chance on him much earlier in fantasy drafts. For starters, he showed big play potential in last year’s playoffs combining for 14 catches for 145 yards and 2 TDs in the Cardinals’ win over Green Bay and loss to the Saints.

Not only that, but Anquan Boldin has moved on to Baltimore, meaning Doucet should have a bigger role in the offense. Obviously Larry Fitzgerald will be the primary target and Breaston will likely continue to be the deep threat. Doucet should see a big bump in targets working the slot.

Life would be better for all of the Cardinal WRs if Kurt Warner hadn’t hung up his cleats, but I feel Leinart will be solid. He’s had time to mature and learn the offense under one of the best QBs to ever play.

They have some solid match-up against the Rams twice, the Seahawks twice, the Raiders (he won’t have to face Asomugha), Bucs, and Chiefs. Their schedule helps his cause.

I’m not saying you should count on him as a WR4 even, but he could put up those kind of numbers. I’m just saying I would take a chance on him over some of the players who on average have gone before him in drafts. I’m talking about guys like Chansi Stuckey, Michael Jenkins, Armanti Edwards, Torry Holt, Troy Williamson, Sam Hurd, Juaquin Iglesias, Damian Williams etc.

Prediction:  65 catches, 800 yards, 4 TDs

What are your thoughts on Early Doucet?

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