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Fantasy Football Running Back Notes: Bills & Cowboys

29 September 2009

Marshawn Lynch has served his suspension and should give the Bills a much needed shot in the arm. With Beast Mode back on the field, perhaps Trent Edwards will be more likely to take some shots down field to Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. Lynch’s return diminishes Fred Jackson‘s fantasy value, but he still should be useful as a bye week fill-in or flex player.

The Cowboys Running Back injuries continue as Felix Jones suffered a knee injury in last night’s win over Carolina. He is expected to miss a couple of games. Marion Barber III will likely reclaim his starting role, but look for Tashard Choice to get plenty of action. If MB3 is active, feel free to use him. Choice isn’t a bad flex play against Denver this week.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Fantasy Football, Felix Jones, Fred Jackson, Marion Barber, Marion Barber III, Marshawn Lynch, NFL, Tashard Choice |

Marion Barber to Miss 1-2 Weeks?

22 September 2009

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

NBC’s Dallas Affiliate is reporting that Marion Barber III will miss this week’s game against Carolina and possibly next week’s game against Denver with a quad injury. Dallas has as much depth as anyone in the league at Running Back with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, which softens the blow of MB3′s loss. Felix Jones looked great in the Cowboys’ loss to the Giants on Sunday Night, and makes a nice RB2/Flex option against 27th ranked run defense. Jason Witten also gets a bump in value as he could be looked to if the Cowboys struggle in the red zone without their goal line Back.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Dallas Cowboys, Fantasy Football, Felix Jones, Marion Barber, Marion Barber III, Marion Barber injury, Marion Barber quad injury, MB3, NFL, Tashard Choice |

Fantasy Football Profile: Marion Barber III

30 July 2009

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Marion the Barbarian. MB3. Mr. Barber. Whatever you want to call him, the guy is one of the toughest running RBs in the league. His stiff arm is a thing of beauty. His running style can work against him though as he was limited in the second half last year. He will share the workload this year with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Jones brings the speed element and Choice is another good change of pace back that excelled a the end of last season. Barber will be used early to establish the run, in short yardage situations, and to close out games. That’s when he’s at his best. Having a stable of good, young RBs is great for an NFL team, but it does hinder their fantasy value. He is great at catching the ball out of the backfield, which helps though. Barber is still a good RB1 and a great RB2. He just won’t go in the top ten like he has in the past couple of years.

Playing in the NFC East makes Barber’s schedule difficult. However, he does face Denver and Kansas City in Weeks 4 & 5, as well as Oakland in Week 12. His fantasy playoffs schedule is San Diego, New Orleans, and Washington. He is fortunate to play the Eagles in Week 17.

I expect a big year from Barber with 1200 total yards, 40 receptions, and 12 TDs.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: 2009 RB rankings, Fantasy Football, fantasy football 1st round, fantasy football draft, fantasy football first round, fantasy football profile, Marion Barber, Marion Barber III, MB3, NFL, RB rankings, Running Back rankings, top fantasy football RBs, when to draft Marion Barber, when to draft MB3 |

Fantasy Football Cage Match – Marion Barber III

21 August 2008

Time for another Fantasy Football Cage Match. We have a new challenger, Majesty, to mix it up with Awesome. Today they debate Marion Barber III.

The Fantasy Cage Match (of the Century, Decade, Day, or Minute, etc.)
Awesome vs. Majesty

In a no holds barred – they may even rip on each other’s children—contest of wit and sarcasm (or lack thereof), in a 15 foot tall steel cage laced with barbed wire and surrounded by super-hot, scantily clad Terrorist chicks ready to douse the loser with anthrax. (Pause for mental image to set in).

Who will win? I think it was JFK or Jesus who said: It’s not whether you win or lose, but how many people you step on and offend during the course of the game.

“I may not be right, I’m not politically correct, and I’m probably going to offend you in some way, but I’m always AWESOME.”

The Fantasy Football Cage Match:
Position: Running Back
Player: Marion Barber III
Stance: Pro
By: Awesome

New challenger, same result: meat. Ok meat, let’s go.

Does this guy belong in the top 10 RB’s?? The answer is…NO.

HE BELONGS IN THE TOP 3!!! So, I guess, technically, the answer is “yes,” but I had to do that for effect. Anyway, the only two I would rank ahead of him are LT, and Addai. And because this is the first thing you’ll want to spew at me, let’s dismiss the other “candidates” before we go on to Barber (don’t worry, this won’t take long).

Adrian Peterson:
You’ll get the full frontal nude attack on Peterson from me in a few days, but here’s the abbreviated edition for those of you have trouble talking to the opposite sex. He’s played less than 1 full year in the NFL because he was injured; he has a history of being injury prone (see where this is going? Yeah, 1 + 1 = YOU’RE STUPID); ankles and knees help you run, and your collar bone… never mind) ; out of the 14 games he actually did play, he had 2 really great games( won your fantasy matchup for you), 4 good games (at least 100 yds & TD, or equivalent), 3 average games (100 yds or less, 0 TDs), and 5 really terrible games (you counted on him, and he lost you the game, including week 16). Hmmm, which one of those numbers is biggest? We’re done here.

Larry Johnson:
Or should I call him “The 1-1/2 Year Wonder”? That’s right, and I won’t get into as much detail because there aren’t as many people on his bandwagon this year, but guess what? Without an Offensive Line, the RB sucks. That’s it.

Brian Westbrook:
Also known as “Captain Injured”. He has NEVER, repeat NEVER played ONE FULL SEASON!!! True, he’s come close, and when he plays, he’s good—really good. But like Peterson, he’s all or nothing. And however good you think he has been, his TD totals for his career read like this (from most recent): 12, 11, 7, 9, 11, 0. Yep. I’ll let that sink in for a second. WOW! Or, as my two year old just learned to say: THAT’S AMAZING!!! That’s actually very average, maybe slightly above average. Either way, he’s a headache and you’ll get burned a few times every year. You can have him.

Steven Jackson:
Give me a break. The guy had one year of really good numbers, and guess what? During that year, 9 of his “THAT’S AMAZING” TDs all came in weeks 12-17 (yes, 3 TDs in week 17), which means he didn’t even get you into the playoffs, so it doesn’t matter that he won them for you — unless you aim to win the toilet bowl every year, because that’s the trophy he won you.

Who else…Frank Gore? Sure, why not:
TDs (again) most recent: 6, 9, and 3. THAT’S AMAZING!!!. And it’s not like you’ll have to worry about him getting hurt, or playing is a game time decision. ‘Nuff said.

Ok, now let’s get to Barber.

If you like fantasy football, you should also like players who score touchdowns, also called “TDs” (and no, this isn’t the same thing your girlfriend/wife/ex-wife gave you, those are “STDs”). And TDs are worth 6 points. BAM! POW! ZAP! Just like that! 6 points! Yep, that’s how it works. And don’t whine to me about “well, I get 1 pt for every 10 yards blah blah blah, and so Frank Gore is worth more because blah blah blah,” I don’t care. 6 is worth more than 1, period. At least that’s how my league scores it. And if your league scores it differently, sign me up and increase the entry fee.

And over the last two years, he racked up 26 TDs, and he did it while sharing time with Julius “not Peppers” Jones, who had (stole) 267 and 166 carries in 2006 & 2007, respectively (not really). Give Barber most of those carries (I’m sure Felix will get some of them, especially in blowouts), and you’ve got your yardage totals that put him in the top 3 by the end of the year.

Let’s remember, the best thing that happened to Marion Barber owners was “The Big D” getting rid of that fossil Bill Parcels. Parcels is one of those ancient white guys who just hates, HATES to admit when he’s wrong. Sure, he’s a great coach and all, or at least he was; and yes, he deserves a certain amount of respect. But I’ll give him that respect when I see him standing behind my Grandfather in the cafeteria line at the old folks’ home, balancing his tray full of strained peas in one hand, and his oxygen tank in the other. Parcels is the only reason Barber had to share the workload the last two years, despite Julius Jones making a very strong case for his own dismissal. And make no mistake, Julius Jones was his guy. That’s why they kept trying to work him in, Parcels didn’t want to admit he drafted the wrong guy; or possibly, if Jones does what he looks like he’s going to do in Seattle, Parcels just wasn’t willing to write his playbook around Jones’ particular skill-set(s), and the mesh didn’t fit.

Regardless, Barber is the only car in the garage now, and it’s his race to win or lose. He’ll be given the chance. Sure, Felix Jones is there to remind Barber that he may not have much room for error, but really, there’s no way the Cowboys are going to willingly give the running game to a rookie. Not with this team; this team is EXPECTED to make a run for the Super Bowl (if not win it outright), and you don’t go into Vegas or Dallas or anywhere in Texas for that matter with that swagger, confidence that borders on cockiness, with “??s” about your running game. Especially in Dallas, where, historically, they won each and every ring with a great Running Back leading the way. And the Cowboys were confident enough in Barber to let Jones move to the Northwest. Given who’s run for the Jerry Jones in the past, if he’s comfortable letting Barber take the reins in this year’s quest for a ring, then so am I.

Done.

The Fantasy Football Cage Match:
Position: Running Back
Player: Marion Barber III
Stance: Con
By: Majesty

A reporter from the Dallas Morning News had this to say about a Dallas running back: “They’re going to get him the ball in space and give him opportunities to make one guy miss and take it to the house. He gives Dallas a game-breaker in the backfield like they haven’t had in years because he has such big-play potential.”

That player was not named Marion Barber III. Thus, Barber’s claim to his team’s #1 RB position is not without question. Whether or not he should hold your team’s #1 RB spot has a simple answer: No.

What you want out of your top RB is performances that will lead to victories week in, week out. Let’s check out Mr. Barber’s consistency.

Carries:
In 2007, he averaged 12.75 carries per game with a standard deviation of 4.78. That is, you’d expect him to get anywhere from 8 to 18 carries per game. Compare that against guys like Thomas Jones (19), Fred Taylor (15), Edgerrin James (20), Justin Fargas (16) and LenDale White (19). What you can see is that his better games for carries are sub-par for most of those others. Notice that I’m not comparing him to guys like LT, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, etc.

Yards:
In 2007, he averaged 60.94 yards per game with a standard deviation of 31.97. So in a given week, him getting 30 yards is just as likely as 90 yards. Comparing against the same people:

Jones (70/game, sd of 32)
Taylor (80/game, sd of 34)
James (76/game, sd of 26)
Fargas (72/game, sd of 53)
White (69/game, sd of 34)

So he’s not quite as consistent as James, and on par with Taylor, Jones and White. He does appear to be more consistent than Fargas, but note that Fargas had two games in which he had a total of 3 carries and 13 yards, which elevates his standard deviation and lowers his average. The problem is that while he matches their consistency, it shows that he consistently has fewer yards than them.

Now, the biggest reason his numbers are lower is the running back by committee system. One might wonder why he hasn’t been handed the lead role. Well, the rap on Barber is that he runs really hard. Admittedly, the perk of this is the ability to get the tough yards in either red zone. His most impressive run last year was for two yards, and it was in the end zone, though he didn’t get a touchdown on it. The downside of it is that when you run that hard, you wear yourself out. The team wants you to still have some fuel in the tank for those short yardage situations late in the game. Translation: A limited number of carries.

The most evident reason to not name Marion Barber your #1 RB is because of that dreaded running back by committee. After getting rid of Julius Jones (164 carries last year vs. Barber’s 204) in the offseason, it looked like MB3 would have things all to himself. Yet it looks as though he still might share carries with Jones. Not that Jones, the other Jones! Felix Jones played second fiddle to Darren McFadden in college, and still put up solid numbers there. Clearly he knows how to make most out of the second spot.

Speaking of McFadden, before the NFL draft there’d been some talk about Dallas wanting to trade up to get McFadden, even if it meant dealing Barber. The fact that they even considered a move like that illustrates that the team just isn’t sold on the guy as their top back. If his employer isn’t ready to depend on him to be their #1 player, neither should you.

Lester’s Ruling
Well, this is basically a draw to me. I don’t see MB3 as a top 3 RB, but I do feel he is worthy of being a #1 RB. The thing I like about Barber is his TD production. He’ll still have to share carries with Felix Jones, but the red zone is his. Barber basically has a free pass when he gets down there because you have to worry about T.O. and Witten. Jones will have to break off a long run to reach paydirt. If pressed to choose I’d say Awesome wins this by a hair.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Cage Match, Marion Barber III, NFL |

Fantasy Football Running Backs – Second Tier

17 July 2008

We’ve done the Big Dog RBs so let’s continue with the Second Tier Running Backs. These are guys that will go in the first couple of rounds. They aren’t quite of the Big Dog ilk, but if you’re in the back end of a snake draft you can pick up a pair of these 2TRBs.

Marion Barber III - So MB3 can’t the chance to shine on his own. Well, not exactly. The Cowboys replaced Julius Jones with rookie Felix Jones. Marion the Barbarian will still be your TD man, but the other Jones will cut into his yardage.

Clinton Portis – Portis will still only be 27 when the season kicks off. He seems so much older than that. I guess that’s what success will do to you. Will he be like Emmitt Smith and just keep turning it out? I think so. I don’t see 1500 yards in him, but 1200 & 10 is attainable.

Frank Gore – Here’s a guy I love. Everyone was HUGE on him last year and he failed miserably by his draft postion standards. However, he still had over 1500 total yards. If that’s a “down year”, I’d be glad to grab him and see what he can do in a good year.

Larry Johnson – Maybe because I own him I am wishful thinking, but I see a rebound for LJ. He’s still a beast. He hasn’t reached the 30 mark. He doesn’t have a lot of mileage considering his age. He is a year removed from back-to-back 1700 yard 17+ TD seasons. I know Shaun Alexander dropped like a elevator with the cable cut, but I see a different story for LJ. As long as he has some burst and he gets a decent showing from the passing game, LJ will be solid. I don’t see another monster year, but if he can turn out 1400 yards and 12 TDs, I’d be stoked.

Marshawn Lynch – Here’s another guy I own. I was huge on him before his little hit-and-run drama. I hope that was a one-time slip-up and not a sign of things to come. He was the Bills’ offense last year. He wasn’t a contender for the ROY last year as All Day was unbelievable, but for a while he was at least a part of the conversation.

Willis McGahee – Here’s another guy who was his team’s offense last year. Willis has over 1400 yards and 8 TDs in his first year in Baltimore. All of that despite only having five carries the past two weeks. He should be fully recovered from his rib injury that finished his season a little early last year.

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