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Happy Birthday Heath!
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A commenter recently made a suggestion that Ahmad Bradshaw should be in my top 15 2011 fantasy football  running back rankings over Matt Forte.
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By no means would I dismiss the notion as I think it’s a valid assessment. So I decided to dig a little deeper into their production.
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Last year Forte was statistically the better back. He combined for 1616 yards (1069 rushing, 547 receiving) and ten touchdowns (seven rushing, three receiving). Ahmad Bradshaw had more rushing yards (1235) and nearly as many total yards (1549), but had two fewer touchdowns.
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Bradshaw comes with a little more uncertainty because we don’t know exactly where he’ll be playing next year. The Giants are expected to retain his services, but one never truly knows, especially in what is expected to be a crazy free agency period.
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Bradshaw has also had issues with his ankles and feet, which is a little concerning for a speed runner like Ahmad. He is healthy now, but can he hold up to another heavy workload like last year when he had 323 touches (276 carries, 47 receptions)? Prior to last year he combined for just 253 carries and 28 receptions in three year.
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Meanwhile Forte has been a workhorse. He has averaged 270.3 carries and 57 receptions in his three years without missing a game.  His carries and receptions have dipped in each of the past two years, but that isn’t unusual considering his decline coincided with Jay Cutler’s arrival. A running back with 288 touches like Forte had last year doesn’t really have much grounds to complain. His fantasy owners could have some beef, but it’s hard to not be pleased with his results.
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Bradshaw has scored seven and eight touchdowns in his two years with a key role for the Giants. Forte has reached double-digit combined touchdowns in two of his three years in the league.  Though I give Forte a slight edge in the touchdown department, I want to emphasize the word slight.
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Value won’t come into play with these two as they are currently 14th and 15th in ADP among running backs according to MockDraftCentral.
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It’s going to come down to preference when deciding between these two gifted running back. I prefer Forte, but completely understanding those in the Bradshaw camp.
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Which running back do yo prefer?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football TE Rankings

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Matt Forte had an unbelievable rookie season compiling 1715 total yards (1238 rushing) and 12 TDs (8 rushing). Jay Cutler was brought in to keep defenses from stuffing the box. He was going in the top five of fantasy drafts. Then 2009 happened.

It wasn’t an utter failure as he piled up 1400 total yards (929 rushing) and 4 TDs, but a far cry from his brilliant rookie season and fantasy owner’s expectations. He failed to top 70 rushing yards in 11 games last year. He had 62 or fewer total yards, without a TD I might add, in four of his first six games. Imagine getting 6.2 or fewer points from your number one pick four out of six times to start the year. He killed fantasy owners.

That’s why it shouldn’t be a surprise why his ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, sits at 44 (22nd RB).  I have him right around the same place (click to see my 2010 RB rankings). With Chester Taylor and Mike Martz in town, it’s easy to see why people have soured on Forte. He didn’t help matters when he ran for seven yards on four carries in the preseason opener against the Chargers. Things, however, may have changed in the Bears’ second preseason game.

Forte ripped off an 89-yard touchdown run on his way to 109 yards on five carries. Clearly the burst that seemed to be missing is back. While Chester Taylor’s arrival may hurt him in the passing game, and subsequently knock his PPR value down a bit, Forte could be better served by having fresh legs down the stretch. That could be important because the Bears play in Buffalo, Green Bay, and four times in Chicago from Week 9 (November 7th) on. With those potential bad weather games, Forte could be very busy as the season winds down. Having somewhat fresh legs will go a long way.

If you aren’t able to draft Forte, you may be able to get him early in the season as he plays the Cowboys, Packers, and Giants in Weeks 2-4. If he struggles early, he could become an excellent buy low candidate. With a fantasy playoff schedule of New England, Minnesota, and the Jets, he may not help when you need it the most, but he can help get you there.

What are your thoughts on Matt Forte?

The Bears are a complete mess. Their leader on defense is having it out with the team’s legends. Not surprising given the name of this site, I support the legends. As far as their fantasy outlook, they are perhaps the most volatile bunch in the league. Cutler and Forte could emerge or they could disappear to the fantasy wasteland.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Extremely Difficult
First up in Week 14 is the New England Patriots. They are playing at home so weather could be a factor. Next up is the Minnesota Vikings on the road. They won’t have to deal with the elements, but they will be facing back-to-back Super Bowl contenders. The road doesn’t get any smoother in the fantasy championship game as the return home to face the Jets.

Five Star Fantasy Options
None

Four Star Fantasy Options
Jay Cutler – I know he’s not loved around the league  or by fantasy owners, especially after the 26 interceptions he threw last year, but he is a talented QB. Mike Martz was brought in to improve the offense, and I think Cutler will be the main benefactor.

Greg Olsen – I know Tight Ends don’t excel in Martz’s offense, but when has he had a TE of Olsen’s caliber? He had Vernon Davis, but that was before he emerged. Olsen followed a 54 catch, 574 yard, 5 TD sophomore season with 60 catches for 612 yards and 8 TDs. He remains the Bears’ best option in the passing game, and he will be utilized.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Matt Forte – Forte was one of the major disappointments last year, but I think Chester Taylor’s presence will help. Taylor is a crafty veteran who will help show Forte the ropes. He will also take away some of the pressure on Forte making him a more effective runner.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Chester Taylor – Assuming Forte holds onto the starting gig, Taylor only makes for a decent backup RB or flex option. He can do it all. Run, catch, block. His work ethic could win him the starting job at some point, which kind of makes him a 2.5 star guy.

Devin Aromashodu, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox – The Bears have four capable receivers. Unfortunately there isn’t much separating them. Hester had the most catches and yards. Knox had the most TDs. Aromashodu had an explosive finish. Bennett was #2 in catches and yards. Hester is probably the safest bet. Aromashodu has the most upside. While all four should be owned in most deep leagues, I wouldn’t want any of them as anything more than a 4th or 5th WR.

Bears Defense/Special Teams
The arrival of Julius Peppers and the return of big mouth Urlacher should make them a viable option again. They play the Lions twice, the Bills, and the Seahawks. Unfortunately they draw the Vikes twice, the Pack twice, the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Patriots.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Time for another Fourth & 1 Roundtable Debate.   Kurt Turner of www.top-fantasy-football.com came up with this week’s topic.  Click here to see the full article.

This week’s question: What are your top two buy low / sell high candidates headed into week four?

Buy Low
There are a number of good Buy Low options as several stars have yet to score a TD. Running Backs Matt Forte and Steve Slaton are candidates, but prying a Running Back that was selected in the first round away from someone is a tall order.

A player that I would target is Carolina’s Steve Smith, who shockingly is becoming the “other” Steve Smith. He has just 190 yards through three games. What’s worse is 131 of those yards came against Atlanta in Week 2 meaning he has just 59 yards in his other two games. A reason that Smith could be acquired is the horrific play of his Quarterback, Jake Delhomme, who has 7 INTs and 2 Fumbles through three games. His poor play has caused people to question Smith’s value, which opens the door for you to swoop in and nab a WR1 for below market value. Smith is too talented not to come around.

Sell High
Everybody expected Matt Ryan to make a huge leap this year, but it’s the other Sophomore Sensation Joe Flacco that’s lighting up the league. Flacco is seventh in passing yards with 839 and tied for 4th with 6 passing TDs. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Matt Schaub are the only other guys with at least 800 yards passing and 6 TDs. I don’t see a major fall from grace, but I don’t see him keeping up his top five fantasy QB ranking either. His fantasy value will likely never be higher. The weather is fine now, but later in the year when it gets cold and sloppy, the Giants will rely more heavily on their ground game.

Another player I’d consider moving is Mario Manningham. His value is also extremely high as teams scrambled to grab him as a waiver wire gem. There are a few things that will be going against him going further. Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon will be returning from their injuries. They won’t take his starting gig, but they well likely take some of his targets. Also, if you check your calendar it’s October. It’s nice nice, but once the weather gets cold and sloppy the Giants will shy away from the passing game a bit and utilize their powerful rushing attack.

Panelists
Junkyard Jake of www.junkyardjake.com
Ryan Lester of www.lesterslegends.com
Paul Greco of www.fantasypros911.com
Bryce McRae of www.kffl.com
Kurt Turner of www.top-fantasy-football.com
Eric Stashin of www.rotoprofessor.com
Lee of www.footballjabber.com
Smitty of www.fantasyfootballxtreme.com

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Like most of the top Running Backs this year, there are some question marks with Matt Forte.  AP likely has to deal with a gunslinger taking over at QB.  MJD has never had more than 200 carries so it’s unknown how he’ll deal with an increased workload.  Michael Turner had a ton of carries last year, something that historically has been bad for the following year production.  Matt Forte’s questions are similar to AP’s.  What will the addition of a proven QB mean to his production?  With Jay Cutler under Center, will Forte lose carries?  Likely.  Though his ability to catch the football (led all RBs with 63 receptions last year) will keep him heavily involved in the Offense.  Will his presence open up the running game by keeping Defenses honest?  Likely.  Though I don’t expect Forte’s production to suffer from Cutler’s arrival.

The main thing Forte had going for him was consistency.  He only failed to reach 10 fantasy points in one game (8.5 in Week 4 against Philly) during the typical fantasy season (He had 7.5 in Week 17).  He scored a TD in 10 of the first 16 games.  He didn’t have monster games, but he delivered every week.  Despite playing in an Offense with limited skill position players, Forte had 1715 total yards and 12 total TDs.

He has a fairly friendly fantasy schedule early on facing Detroit in Week 4 (unfortunately the second meeting is Week 17), a three-game stretch in Weeks 7-9 against Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Arizona, and Week 13 against St. Louis.  His fantasy playoff schedule is brutal, which makes him a candidate to sell high.  He faces Green Bay, Baltimore, and Minnesota.  His pass-catching ability should help, but that’s a tough schedule at the worst possible time.

Though he could struggle down the stretch, he should still be good for 1700 total yards and 10+ TDs.  Barring injury he’ll be selected in the top four picks with a slight bump in PPR leagues.

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The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the hamstring scare that for Chicago Bears star Running Back Matt Forte out of Wednesdays practice was just that–a scare.  He sat out yesterday, and could continue to sit out for the next week or two as Chicago proceeds with caution.  Forte underwent an MRI as a precaution.  He should be ready for training camp, and his status as a top five fantasy pick is not in danger.