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Max Scherzer went 15-9 last year with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He collected 174 strikeouts. He has the ability to put up better numbers this year, but can he be elite?
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Prior to last year, the only time Scherzer’s ERA has been above 4.00 in his professional careerw as 2009 for the Diamondbacks.
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Part of the problem came in the form of the longball, as he yielded a career high 29 deep shots. Most of the damage came on the road as he allowed 11 home runs in 18 home starts and 18 home runs in 15 road starts. His ERA (3.80 at home, 5.23 on the road) was affected by that fact.
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Interesting enough he pitched better in the second half (4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .263 BAA) than the first half (4.69, 1.44, .279), but had more success in the first half (10-4 compared to 5-5 record).
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Scherzer was 8-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 16 starts against the AL Central. On paper the Indians, Royals, Twins, and White Sox do not provide an intimidating presence, and continued success remains a strong likelihood.
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Scherzer has an Mock Draft Central ADP of 147, which puts him in the 13th round of 12-team drafts. He’s the 43rd pitcher to come off the board making him a fourth starting pitcher.
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He needs to improve his strikeout percentage, which was a career low 20.9 percent last year and keep more balls in the yard. I don’t think he’ll be an elite starting pitching option, but he top 25 option.
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He starts off against Boston, who bombed him for seven runs in two innings last year, so temper your expectations early on, but he should be a solid SP3 with SP2 upside.
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Also check out:

• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
• Can Matt Wieters Continue to Improve?
• Can Chris Young Blow Up in 2012?
• Can Derek Jeter Still Get It Done?
• Will Joe Mauer Shed the Joey Singles Moniker?

Francisco Liriano – Liriano exploded on the scene in 2006 going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA.  He missed 2007 and struggled early last year following Tommy John surgery.  After tearing up the Minors, Liriano returned to go 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .236 BAA in eleven starts in August and September.  His September numbers (4.66 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .289 BAA in five starts) were a little alarming, but he was probably dealing with arm fatigue.  The Twins are one of the best at pacing their starters so that shouldn’t plague Liriano in 2009.  If he stays healthy he should be able to win 16+ games with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Joba Chamberlain - The Yankees are taking it slow with their young star as well.  When he’s healthy he is nearly unhittable, as evidenced by his career 2.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .217 BAA.  With the addition of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, and a healthy Chien-Ming Wang, there won’t be as much pressure on Joba to perform. He’ll settle into that fifth spot in the rotation, behind Andy Pettitte, and the early schedule should allow him the opportunity to miss a start or two if that’s in his best interest.  The limitations the Yankees will put on him will keep him from having a monster year, but he should be able to win 12-14 games with a low ERA, WHIP, and BAA. 

Yovani Gallardo – A knee injury cost Gallardo the opportunity to build on the solid 2007 season (9-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .245 BAA).  In just four starts last year Gallardo had a 1.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .256 BAA.  With the departure of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, Gallardo will have a chance to be a key member of the Brewers Pitching Staff.  With their solid Offense, he could win 14-16 games if he stays healthy with low ERA, WHIP, and BAA. 

David Price - Price toyed with Major League competition last year posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a .176 BAA.  His success spilled over into the postseason posting a 1.59 ERA in five relief appearances.  Whether Tampa Bay uses his as a Reliever or a Starter, Price will give your fantasy team a boost in ERA and R.

Jonathan Broxton – Broxton took the Closer job last July and ran with it.  He recorded 14 Saves with a 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .200 BAA with 42 Ks in 29.3 Innings after the All-Star Break.  He was solid in a setup role the previous two and a half seasons so his success isn’t a fluke.  Now that the Dodgers have secured Manny Ramirez’s services, they’ll likely build on their success of last year meaning Broxton could have plenty of Save opportunites.  I don’t think he’ll have a problem reach 30-35 Saves.

Josh Johnson – Johnson went 7-1 last year with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.  Opponents did bat .275 on him, but his other numbers are still solid.  In 2006 he was 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .236 BAA.  He is also trying to continue a successful return from Tommy John surgery.  If he stays healthy he could win 12-14 games with a sub-4.00 ERA

Clayton Kershaw – Clayton went 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a .265 BAA.  He did show improvement after the All-Star Break going 5-3 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .262 BAA.  In the Minors he went 12-10 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.  His K/9 ratio in the Minors was 11.3, and a decent 8.4 in the Bigs.  He could win 12+ games with a sub-4.00 ERA.

Max Scherzer – Max failed to pick up a Win last year in seven starts (16 Games), but did manage a 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .234.  He recorded 66 Ks in 56 Innings (10.6 K/9).  He’s been battling shoulder inflammation and may not have a spot in the rotation initially, but he’s too good of a talent to not get a chance.  In thirty Minor League starts Max is 8-5 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  His Minor League K/9 ratio is 11.9.  Given that his role has yet to be determined, his Win total likely won’t help fantasy teams, but he’ll be a nice source for Ks, ERA, and WHIP.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Three of the games top young pitchers have made 2 starts thus far in the Arizona Fall League, excelling to say the least.  Let’s take a look at the numbers:

• Max Scherzer – 0-0, 12.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 13 K, 8 H, 2 BB
• Phil Hughes – 1-0, 10.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10 K, 5 H, 6 BB
• Clay Buchholz – 1-0, 8.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, 7 K, 1 H, 2 BB

Those numbers for Buchholz are extremely impressive, no matter how small of a sample size.  Considering that he is the same pitcher that went 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA in the major leagues this season, you have to like what you are seeing here.  Obviously, it’s not against the same type of talent, but you have to take notice.  We’ll track his progress as the AFL continues, but as of right now I’d recommend taking a flier on him in the late rounds of your draft.

Hughes, while he’s pitcher well, has struggled with his control, which has to be a concern.  He needs to get that corrected if he is going to be able to rebound at the major league level.  It’ll be interesting to see if the Yankees opt to move him in the off season as part their grand scheme of rebuilding and getting back to the playoffs.  Where he ends up will definitely play a major factor in what I’d consider doing with him next season on draft day.

As for Scherzer, what else is there to say?  Those who have read the site know my feelings on him and he just continues to impress every step of the way.  He should be owned in all formats next season and has the chance to be one of the elite strikeout artists in the game.

Like I said with Buchholz, we’ll continue to track all three of these guys progress this winter, as it certainly will influence on valuable they will be for fantasy owners in 2009.

For more great fantasy info, check out Rotoprofessor.com.