LestersLegends.com

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Most of the attention in the Sunday Night Football game surrounds Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta. Obviously that is a big story and I understand the significance.
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Any remaining attention is focused on how Matt Ryan will handle Vick’s return and whether or not he can recover from his rough start.
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A player being overlooked is Michael Turner.
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Many experts predicted a serious decline from the Burner this year, and despite the pounding administered by the Bears in Week 1, Turner got his. He ran for 100 yards on ten carries and added 40 yards on three catches.Turner had a career high of 85 receiving yards last year and the 40 in the season opener is 14.7 percent of his career total.
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At least in the early going the reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated.
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Now he takes on the Eagles. Of all the changes they made in the offseason, they have question marks as to whether or not they can stop the run.
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Sure, they defeated the Falcons handily 31-13, but they didn’t walk away with lingering questions.
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The Rams piled on 154 yards at a 5.9 yards per carry clip. Take away Sam Bradford’s 15-yard loss and you’re looking at 169 yards at 6.8 ypc. It wasn’t just Steven Jackson’s 47-yard run because without that their running backs averaged 5.1 ypc.
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Cadillac Williams rumbled for 91 yards on 19 carries (4.8 ypc). Turner was considered on the decline, but Cadillac was considered just about done.
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The Falcons aren’t simply going to try and get in a track meet with the Eagles. Not considering the weapon they have in Turner and the weakness the Eagles have in run defense.
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If you were struggling to decide whether or not to use Turner this week, keep these numbers in mind.
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Also check out:

• Fantasy Football Week 2 Waiver Advice
• Week 2 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• Week 2 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• Week 2 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• Week 2 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
• Week 2 Fantasy Football K Rankings
• Week 2 Fantasy Football DEF Rankings
• Week 2 Fantasy Football Sit/Start Advice
• Week 2 Fantasy Football Sleepers

It seemed the chic thing to do this weekend was get hurt. Here’s an early look at how some of the trendiest players have responded the morning after.

It sounds like Cedric Benson (hip) will be able to play this weekend, which is great news for Benson owners because he faces Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit over the next three weeks. Look for Bernard Scott to get plenty of action as well as the Bengals put a hurtin’ on these floor mats. How crazy is it that the Bengals could easily be 10-2 when they face the Vikings in Week 14. 11-1 if the Broncos didn’t win on that miracle tip in Week 1.

Speaking of the Bengals, Larry Johnson is rumored to be signing with them as an insurance policy. Character isn’t their bag so he shouldn’t have a problem with the team or the fans. It remains to be seen if he has anything left in the tank.

Ronnie Brown most likely would miss a game this week if the Dolphins played on Sunday, so the fact that they play on Thursday all but seals that fate. At least you don’t have to worry about the dreaded game-time decision.

Julius Jones is bleeding in his lung, which sounds extremely painful. That injury should cost him a couple of games. Justin Forsett will fill the void, though I expect the Seahawks to be pass happy.

The NFL.com is reporting that Kyle Orton will give it a go this week despite his ankle injury. While this is good news for Brandon Marshall owners, I’d cancel the victory parade. Orton will likely be limited, and San Diego is tough against the pass.

Michael Turner suffered a high ankle sprain and will miss at least a couple weeks. Turner was in the midst of a phenomenal season. There is no replacing his production. You have to hope you had early success or this injury could derail your fantasy season.

Brian Westbrook suffered another concussion in the Eagles’ loss to San Diego. At this point in the year, I’d say it’s safe to cut bait on Westy and go in a different direction. I don’t see him playing any time soon.

Here are some Running Backs putting up serious preseason numbers.  Let’s take a look and see if they have a chance to translate some of that preseason production into fantasy worth in regular season play.

Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers – Coffee leads all RBs with 196 preseason rushing yards.  He is averaging 6.5  yards per carry (ypc).  He also has two receptions for 8 yard, but has failed to score a TD.  The Rookie out of Alabama is doing all the right things to serve as Frank Gore’s primary backup.  If Gore goes down, Coffee’s value skyrockets.  He is a great late round value as a Gore handcuff or trade bait.

Tyrell Sutton, Green Bay Packers – Sutton has 140 yards on 27 carries (5.2 ypc) with a TD.  It’s could earn him a gig on a practice squad somewhere or the UFL. 

Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - The preseason means little, but it’s nice to know the Burner is picking up where he left off with 128 yards on 13 carries (9.8 ypc) with a pair of TDs.  He is clearly a top four pick, with a bump in non-PPR leagues.

James Davis, Cleveland Browns - James has been shooting up fantasy draft boards with an amazing preseason.  He has looked great in practices and showed a glimpse of his big play potential with a 81 yard TD run against the lowly Detroit Lions en route to a 12 carry, 116 yard game.  Through two preseasons games the Clemson Rookie has 121 yards on 14 carries (8.6 ypc) and 3 receptions.  He has plenty of competition in Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison, but let’s face it.  The Browns are bad.  They are going to be bad.  It’s only a matter of time before they start planning for the future, and Jamal Lewis isn’t the future.  Harrison is better suited for the change of pace role, meaning Davis could get the bulk of the carries.

Kory Sheets, San Francisco 49ers - Sheets has 102 yards on 22 carries (4.6 ypc), but only has a shot of making the team because of Thomas Clayton’s knee injury.  He has no fantasy value.

Mike Bell, New Orleans Saints - Bell is an interesting option.  I obviously wouldn’t carry him on my roster as long as Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas were healthy, but he could be productive if one of them went down with an injury.  He has 100 yards on 10 carries (10.0 ypc) this preseason with a 46 yard TD.

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers - Again, I know it’s only the preseason, but it’s nice to see Ryan Grant find the end zone.  He has scored twice while running for 71 yards on 16 carries (4.4 ypc).  He has added a couple of receptions.  If he can score more than the 4 TDs he had last year, he’ll be one of the best RB2s.

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants - Bradshaw appears poised to pick up Derrick Ward’s slack with 89 preseason yards on 11 carries (8.1 ypc) with 4 catches for 16 yards.  He has the burst to break one, and the soft hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.

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By Marc Mancuso

Everyone wants to avoid overspeding these days. Things that may look nice and shiny and sound good are not always the path to happiness. These guys had amazing 2008 seasons, but they are bubbles waiting to burst. In keeping with the economic theme, past results are not predictors of future performance….

All Overvalued Team:
QB: Kurt Warner, ARI — I am seeing Warner go in rounds 3 & 4 of drafts. Really? The guy is 38 years old with a very suspect injury past, having played only two full seasons this decade (2001 and 2008)

RB: Michael Turner, ATL — The consensus #2 overall but I’m not buying it. Matt Ryan has new toys and its expected that the Falcons will open up the playbook in his sophomore season. That plus the dreaded rule of 370 to me sounds better at #6 than at #2.

RB: DeAngelo Williams, CAR — Timeshare with Jonathan Stewart again this year. Barring injury, DeAngelo will not reach his lofty 2008 numbers. Let someone else take the chance on a 1st round pick. T he Panthers didn’t see enough in DeWill or they would not have drafted Stewart as their top draft pick in 2008.

WR: Antonio Bryant, TB Those expecting a repeat of last season’s success will be disappointed. A very suspect QB situation, and three viable RB’s, point to fewer targets and particularly downfield targets. Awesome as a #3 but think twice about drafting him as your #2. Bryant has already gotten nicked in camp with a torn meniscus and will miss 3-4 weeks.

WR: Santonio Holmes, PIT A good Super Bowl does not a good fantasy player make (ala Deon Branch). I like his talent and speed, but he’s far too inconsistent to be a #2 WR. I am seeing him go in round 3 of drafts. Pittsburgh reverted back to a running team last year after putting up big numbers through the air in 2007. This despite injuries to Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall, and Hines Ward never seems to age, are all factors will further diminish Holmes’ overall value.

WR: Brandon Marshall, DEN Elite talent, but too many question marks to consider him in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Kyle Orton does not have the gun that Jay Cutler had, and Marshall’s hip and hamstring issues, combined with a potential suspension, puts him in very high risk territory.

TE: John Carlson, SEA — Seneca Wallace is back on the bench, TJ Housh is on the team, and Nate Burleson is back and healthy and getting rave reviews thus far at camp. All signs point to Carlson going back to a middle of the road TE, who should not be considered a #1 option.

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Michael Turner more than proved he was capable of stepping out of LT’s shadow to be a feature back.  Early in the season he was inconsistent.  He would dominate bad Defenses [Detroit, KC, GB (injuries), Oakland, Denver] and get bottled up by good ones [TB, Carolina, Chicago, Philly].  Something happened in Week 12 though as he destroyed Carolina for 117 yards and 4 TDs.  He became a machine putting up solid games against everyone he faced, including TB and a tough Minnesota run D.  He had 100+ yards and/or a TD in his last nine games. 

There is some cause for concern though despite the monster numbers (1699 yards, 17 TDs).  He had 376 carries last year.  That is a lot for a back even if he didn’t have much mileage prior to the season.  Historically, RBs with such a huge workload see a dip in production the following year.  I’m already calling for his TDs to reduce because of the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who is great inside the 20.  He’ll face a tougher schedule this year with games against Miami, New England, Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia, and the Jets, along with two games against Carolina and Tampa Bay.  His fantasy playoffs schedule consists of matchups with New Orleans, the Jets, and Buffalo, which isn’t terrible.  Despite the likely dip in production I still think Turner will be a top 3-4 back.  I’m expecting 1700 total yards and 13 TDs.

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To say that Matt Ryan exceeded expectations last year is a vast understatement.  He started off slow averaging 167.3 yards per game in the first four games with 2 TDs (0.5/gm).  He tore it up in October and November averaging 244.5 ypg with 11 TDs (1.375/gm).  He fizzled a bit down the stretch averaging 203.8 ypg with 3 TDs (0.75/gm).  You would expect some growth from him in his second year, especially with the addition of Tight End Tony Gonzalez, who will team with Roddy White to give the Falcons an excellent 1-2 punch.  Michael Jenkins made strides last year and should benefit from Gonzo’s arrival as well.  Throw in an excellent running game with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood and the Offense should be firing on all cylinders.

His fantasy schedule isn’t too frightening.  He plays at home against New Orleans, at NY Jets, and at home against the Bills.  His regular season is pretty tough being in a good division, facing the AFC East and the NFC East.  With his  weapons he still should be able to move the chains and put points on the board.  I’m expecting him to throw for around 3600 yards and 22 TDs.  He won’t dominate the fantasy scene, but he should be a pretty good value in the 8th round or so.

This is my preseason top ten.

Click here for my Midseason revised rankings.

Click here for my Second Half rankings.

1.  Adrian Peterson – All Day led the league in rushing and scored double-digit TDs again.  Sure, the loss of Matt Birk will hurt, but Peterson shouldn’t miss a beat.  He’s looking to add some muscle mass this offseason without losing any speed.  A bigger AP with the same speed and quickness.  Scary.

2.  Michael Turner – Burner Turner did not disappoint in his first shot as the feature back.  He struggled early against good defenses, but scored in seven of his last eight games.  As Matt Ryan progresses at QB, it will become more difficult to key in on Turner.

3.  Matt Forte - I love Forte’s versatility.  As a rookie he had the third most receiving yards for a Running Back.  Second if you discount Kevin Faulk, who isn’t a feature back.  He had 1715 total yards and 12 combined TDs.  Even if he has a 10% Sophomore slump dip in production, he’d still be good for over 1500 total yards and 10-11 TDs.

4.  Maurice Jones-Drew – With Fred Taylor heading to New England, MJD should be huge in 2009.  He’s always good for 400+ receiving yards and double-digit TDs.  Give him 300-320 carries and you could be looking at nearly 2000 total yards and 15+ TDs.

5.  Ronnie Brown - Last year Ronnie had 214 carries to Ricky Williams’ 160.  I think the split will be even more in Ronnie’s favor next year.  With Ronnie another year removed from his knee injury, he should be closer to the 2007 back that had 991 total yards and five combined TDs in seven games.

6.  LaDainian Tomlinson - LT battled through a variety of ailments last year and still managed to produce 1536 total yards and 12 combined TDs.  Not only do I think he’ll be healthy in ’09, I think he will be motivated.  I don’t see pre-2008 LT, but a better version that last year’s model.

7.  Clinton Portis – CP was severely overworked last year, but he still remains on the right side of 30. I see him producing similar numbers next year, only spaced out a whole lot better.  Jim Zorn will do a better job managing Portis’ carries so he doesn’t wear down at the end of the year.

8.  Brandon Jacobs - You would think Derrick Ward’s departure to Tampa Bay would have a significant impact on Jacobs’ value.  I don’t think so.  Ahmad Bradshaw will likely pick up most of the slack. As long as Jacobs can stay healthy, there isn’t any reason he couldn’t run for 1200+ yards and scored 18+ TDs.

9.  DeAngelo Williams – You must think I’m crazy putting D-Will this low after leading all RBs in scoring last year.  I’m sorry, but I don’t see another 1700 total yards from him.  Furthermore, there is little to no chance he approaches 20 TDs again.  Jonathan Stewart played a major role last year, and I think the split will be a little closer to 50/50 this year.

10.  Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson’s strong finish (637 total yards and 4 combined TDs in his last five games) is sticking in my mind more than the most forgettable 19 games he had in 2007 and the first part of 2008.  If he can stay healthy he has a chance to leapfrog several of the guys above him.  I haven’t completely forgotten though, which is why he’s in the ten spot.

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