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While Milwaukee Catcher Jonathan Lucroy doesn’t have as many at bats as some of the elite catchers in the league, his ownership in fantasy leagues (less than 30.0 percent of Yahoo! and 15.0 percent of ESPN leagues) is a bit puzzling.
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After all, he is hitting .323, which puts him ahead of all those elite catchers in that category.
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Lucroy hasn’t been a one-trick pony with merely a high batting average. It’s true that his eight runs scored and two home runs are far from elite numbers, but his RBI production (16) has been solid. So has his .845 OPS).
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Lucroy doesn’t appear to have the makings of a flash in the pan either. He had a solid 2011 season posting a .265-45-12-59-2 line. While he was much better in the first half last year (.280 average prior to the All-Star break vs. .247 following it), he pretty much just seemed to run out of gas hitting .188 in September. Prior to that decline he was hitting .279.
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Lucroy has had tremendous success against left-handed pitching. He hit .284 with a .735 OPS against southpaws in 2010 vs. .241, .590 against righities. Last year it was .291, .869 vs. .259, .662. So far this year he’s at .435, 1.197 vs. .292, .753.
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While he still hits lefties harder, it is an encouraging sign that some of his growth has come vs. right-handed pitching as well.
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Lucroy has been highly productive at home (.283, .722), but has really been masterful on the road (.381, 1.032).
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He has been inserted into the two-hole for the Brewers with Richie Weeks out. That should allow him to see plenty of at bats, and build on his counting numbers.
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I don’t expect Lucroy to continue hitting at the clip he currently is. His BABIP of .366 is significantly higher than his .312 career mark. He’s red hot right now though, hitting .378 for the month. Ride him while he’s hot. Even when he cools off, he should remain a productive hitter.
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Also check out:

• Fantasy Feast Closer Report – 5/14/12
• Should You Buy Low on Matt Moore?
• Should You Be Streaming Gerardo Parra?
• Can James McDonald Keep Fantasy Owners Saying “I’m Lovin’ It”?
• Can Edwin Encarnacion Continue to Swing a Hot Bat?

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By Eric Stashin the RotoProfessor
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There have been rumors for the past few months…  What would the Mets do with Francisco Rodriguez?  With the team over .500, would they deal him in an attempt to avoid letting his 2012 option to vest (at $17.5 million)?  Would they sit tight and try and make a run at the Wild Card?
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Well, the question was answered last night when the team sent him (as well as cash) to Milwaukee for a pair of players to be named later according to ESPN New York (click here for the article).  Don’t conclude that the Mets have raised the white flag at this point, however.  While that could happen in the next two weeks, this deal was solely about the albatross of a contract and maintaining payroll flexibility for 2012.
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There is no clear-cut answer as to who will close games for the Mets, though Jason Isringhausen (as long as he’s still with the club as he too has been involved in trade rumors), Bobby Parnell and Pedro Beato could all factor into things.  Parnell, a flame thrower who has long been considered the Mets closer of the future, figures to get the first look and is worth owning in all formats.  He currently has a 2.92 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 30 K over 24.2 IP.
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Beato was impressive early in the season, not allowing a run over his first 18.2 innings, though he stumbled in May (6.23 ERA) and June (6.39 ERA).  I would consider him a long-shot to see many save opportunities, though he could be in the mix.
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As for the Brewers, they certainly weren’t a team that had been a rumored landing spot for Rodriguez.  However, their acquisitions of Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke in the offseason showed how aggressive they would be.  Now, a closers controversy in Milwaukee begins.
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Tom Haudricourt of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (click here for the post) had a quote from General Manager Doug Melvin, who said:
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“This gives us another quality arm in the bullpen. I talked to John and I told him not to worry about it. I told him roles will be dictated by games and by (manager) Ron (Roenicke).”
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“I couldn’t walk away from the chance to get a pitcher like Francisco and wish later I hadn’t let him get away. We’ve had some injuries in our bullpen, including (setup man Takashi) Saito, and if I let (Rodriguez) get away and somebody went down, I’d kick myself.”
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In other words, we don’t know yet if it will be John Axford, Francisco Rodriguez or a combination of the two.  You would have to anticipate the Brewers sticking with Axford, at least initially, as he is sporting a 2.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 53 K over 41.1 IP.  Those numbers are better than Rodriguez’, who is at 3.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 46 K over 42.2 IP.
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For a team that is likely going to see Prince Fielder leave via free agency after the season, how can they justify letting Rodriguez’ extension vest?  Obviously, in the heat of a pennant race, if Axford falters then Rodriguez is there to help carry them into the playoffs.  While I wouldn’t cut bait on him quite yet, I would certainly keep him stashed on the bench because the chances are that his fantasy value becomes nil.
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What are your thoughts on the deal?  Even before knowing who the Mets will get, is it a deal they had to make?  Who do you think will close for Milwaukee?
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Eric also breaks down the Juan Rivera trade.
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Click here to see LestersLegends’ recent baseball articles.

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Before the season started I urged you to use caution when drafting John Axford. While he had the potential to pile up the saves, he struggled with his control at times.
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Right out of the gate he got blasted, blowing a save against the Reds in extreme fashion. Axford gave up four runs that day to walk away with a 54.00 ERA. In his seventh appearance Axford would blow another save. This time he only gave up one run, but he walked two batters. That gave him six walks in his first 6-1/3 innings.
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Had had allowed a run in three of his first seven outings. He only had on appearance that he did not allow a hit. With an 8.53 ERA and a  2.21 WHIP, Axford was a major disappointment.
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Since his second blown save, Axford had converted all four of his save attempts. He has a 2.25 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in eight one-inning appearances. Three of his appearances he did not allow a hit, but more importantly, he hasn’t walked a batter over that stretch.
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As long as his control is under control, Axford can be one of the better closers in the National League. Despite his struggles, he has seven saves and 16 strikeouts in 14-1/3 innings. He certainly has Ron Roenicke’s confidence as he never put his closer on the hot seat. After Axford’ second blown save, Roenicke said “I’m really not concerned about him. He’s got too many good pitches to get hitters out.”
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While he may have another rough patch or two, Axford remains a solid option.
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Also check out:

• Can Kevin Correia Sustain His Early Success?
• Is Brandon Beachy the Real Deal?
• Is Matt Joyce For Real?
• Should You Buy Low on Yovani Gallardo?
• Is It Time to Sell High on Andre Ethier?

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Ordinarily a pitcher  of Yovani Gallardo’s caliber with a BABIP of .358 would be a no-brainer to go after. He has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league thus far. No way can he remain that unlucky during the course of the season.
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While I agree with that assessment, it must be noted that Gallardo’s BABIP last year was .324 and in 2009 it was .275. Even when he was tearing it up in Triple-A, he was posting close to a .300 BABIP.
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Considering how many of his outs come via the strikeout, and thus the ball never actually gets into play, the high number isn’t all that surprising.
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What is surprising is Gallardo’s diminished strikeout rate. After posting 9.89 K/9 and 9.73 K/9 in his first two full seasons with the Brewers, Yovani is down to  6.53 in 2011.That’s quite a drop.
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Gallardo has allowed four or more runs in each of his last five starts. It’s to the point that a fantasy owner can be justified letting Gallardo ride the pine until he gets his act together. With St. Louis up next, I can easily see you let Gallardo sit that one out.
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If you’re looking to make a deal for Gallardo you have to root against him in his next start. Perhaps that will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and sends his owner off the deep end.
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Then you can swoop in and get Gallardo for pennies on the dollar. He has two consecutive 200 strikeout seasons, posting ERA of 3.84 and 3.73. He’s just 25. If anybody is going to turn it around, it seems like Gallardo could be the guy.
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Also check out:

• Is It Time to Sell High on Andre Ethier?
• Can You Trust Josh Tomlin’s Fast Start?
• Can Adam Dunn Turn it Around?
• Is It Time to Hit the Panic Button on Albert Pujols?
• Has Brett Wallace Arrived?

Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images
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The Washington Nationals have had enough of Nyjer Morgan and sent it packing. Morgan, who had 34 stolen bases in a tumultuous year with the Nats, gets new life with the Milwaukee Brewers. Morgan has 76 stolen bases in the past two years and is a career .283  hitter. He will likely take over in center field for Carlos Gomez, who also  has great speed, but is a career .246 hitter. Gomez has more trouble making contact, striking out every 4.2 at bats.  Morgan strikes out every 5.8 at bats.Rick Ankiel, who will play center field for the Nationals gets a small bump, but he’s likely on useful in N.L. Only leagues. If you’re looking for cheap steals, Nyjer Morgan could be your guy.

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John Axford came out of nowhere to save 24 games for the Brewers last year. He also sported a8-2 record with a 2.48 WHIP and a 1.19 ERA. He also recorded 76 strikeouts in 58 innings for a rock solid 11.8 strikeout per nine innings ratio.
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Axford was good before the All-Star Break going 5-1 with ten saves, a 3.12 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .232 BAA. He was brilliant afterwards though as he went 3-1 with 14 saves, a 1.97 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .180 BAA.
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When you consider that Axford split time with Trevor Hoffman, who recorded ten saves of his own last year, the potential is even greater in his first full season with the closer gig. Especially when you factor in the improvements made to their pitching staff with the acquisition of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.
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So is John Axford ready to become an elite closer? Maybe, but I would be a little cautious with him. For starters, he does have control issues. He walked 27 batters in 58 innings, or 4.2 per nine innings. His 1.19 WHIP was solid last year, but he posted a 1.43 WHIP to start the year for Triple-A Nashville, which matched his WHIP in his cup of coffee with the Brewers in 2009. His 1.30 WHIP for Double-A Huntsville and 1.27 for Triple-A Nashville in 2009 are far from dominating.
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At the root of his high WHIP totals is his control. He sported a 6.06 BB/9 ratio in his minor league career. He even struggled with it at the collegiate level, walking 118 batters in 144 innings (7.4 BB/9) for Notre Dame. If he continues to walk batters at an alarming rate, he could find himself out of the closer job, especially with LaTroy Hawkins (87 career saves) and Takashi Saito (84 career saves) waiting in the wings.
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I don’t mean to be all doom and gloom with Axford. He does have some serious potential. I just want to make sure you see the whole picture before selecting him on draft day.
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What are your thoughts on John Axford?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

We’ve heard a lot about the potential of Manny Parra over the years, unfortunately it has never translated to a big league diamond.  The trend has continued in 2010, as he’s posted the following line:

3 Wins
64.2 Innings
4.45 ERA
1.65 WHIP
66 Strikeouts (9.2 K/9)
31 Walks (4.3 BB/9)
.369 BABIP

There are a few things that jump out at you almost immediately.  First of all is the luck, which he clearly hasn’t had.  The strand rate is normal (75.7%), but the BABIP continues to be a problem for him.  Just look at his numbers through parts of his previous three seasons:

• 2007 – .332 (26.1 IP)
• 2008 – .337 (166.0 IP)
• 2009 – .365 (140.0 IP)

This begs the question, is it bad luck or is it poor skill?  Before we decide on that, let’s look at the other numbers.

He’s a solid, though not elite, groundball pitcher.  Thus far in 2010 he’s posted a 49.2% groundball rate.  Over his minor league career he posted a 52.7% mark, so look for this to continue.

The strikeout rate is impressive, and not impossible for him to repeat.  Over his minor league career (564.0 innings), he’s posted a K/9 of 8.6.  He’s also shown signs at the major league level prior to this year, with a career K/9 of 8.1.  Even if he regresses some from his mark this season, seeing him maintain a mark of above 8.0 is very likely.

The control has been a problem, but is not indicative of what he actually is capable of.  Over his minor league career he posted a walk rate of 2.6.

Is it possible that he was rushed to the big leagues?  Being drafted in the 26th round of the 2001 draft, Parra was nurtured slowly, that is until 2007 in his 24-year old season.  After that, he has been up and down from the minors and the majors, spending just 50.2 innings at Triple-A.

Could he have been better suited, despite his age, to have spent a little bit more time at Triple-A against the upper level competition?  At this point we’ll never know.  What we do know is that Parra actually does have the skill set for potential success:

• Strikeout potential
• Groundball pitcher
• Good control

Of course, we have not yet actually seen the control, which, when coupled with the bad luck, explains the terrible numbers we’ve seen from Parra over the past four years.  However, with his abilities, it’s not the time to simply think that he can’t put things together.

Those in shallower formats can ignore him, but if you are in a deeper league and need a pitcher to take a flyer on, consider stashing him on your bench, just in case.  He has the stuff and it could come together all at once.

What do you think of Parra?  Is there any chance that he’s viable in 2010?  Do you not believe in his potential?

Make sure to check out our recent Scouting Reports:

• Brett Cecil
• Wade Davis
• Jason Donald
• John Ely
• Brett Gardner
• John Jaso
• Brad Lincoln
• Jonathan Lucroy
• Kris Medlen
• Jonathan Niese
• Andrew Oliver
• Jake Peavy
• Sean Rodriguez
• Mike Stanton
• Andres Torres

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