LestersLegends.com

The Patriots should continue to be one of the better teams both in fantasy and reality, but they aren’t quite what they once were. Perhaps playing more of an underdog role is what they need.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Somewhat difficult
If the Patriots play like they are capable of, their opponent doesn’t really matter. However, facing the Bears in Chicago (Week 14), the Packers at home (15), and the Bills in Buffalo (16) means they could have three bad weather games in the fantasy playoffs. You should keep that in mind when deciding between Patriot players and someone you consider of equal value.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Tom Brady – Brady had a great season (65.7 completion percentage, 4398 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs, 96.2 passer rating), especially when you consider he was coming off a serious knee injury. Don’t look for another 50 TD season, but he remains one of the elite QBs in the league.

Randy Moss – He’s playing for one last big contract. He can disappear a bit when teams get physical, but you know what you’re getting with Moss. 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs.

Four Star Fantasy Options
None

Three Star Fantasy Options
Wes Welker – He can move up to four star option if he proves that his knee will be OK. He could also slide down to a two or one star option. It’s a matter of how he recovers, and you won’t know until down the road.

Patriots Defense/Special Teams – They always seem to be an opportunistic unit. They have some solid match-ups against the Bills twice (Weeks 3 & 16), the Browns (9), and the Lions (12).

Two Star Fantasy Options
Laurence Maroney – I don’t love Maroney, but he’s probably the best option the Patriots have. Draft him for RB depth and ride him if he gets hot.

Julian Edelman & Torry Holt – If Welker is slow to recover, Edelman can be used to fill the void. Once Welker is back, Edelman will catch the ball, but consistency will be an issue. I don’t think Holt has anything left in the tank, but Belichick somehow squeezes the last bit of production our of veterans.

One Star Fantasy Options
Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor – Each of them will probably show some value at different points of the season, but you can’t rely on any of them.

Taylor Price and Brandon Tate – Keep these guys on your radar, but don’t bother drafting them until they have defined roles.

Alge Crumpler, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez – The Patriots have little to offer at TE. Look elsewhere.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

ESPN is reporting the passing of fan favorite Mosi Tatupu. The details of his death were not disclosed, though he did have medical conditions that may have contributed.

Growing up a Patriots fan, Tatupu was one of my favorites because he was gritty player that left everything on the field. I also remembered him for his hair.

When I was in Hawaii for my honeymoon several years ago I saw a picture of Tatupu in the airport. It brought back fond memories.

Mosi’s son Lofa Tatupu still plays in the NFL for the Seahawks.

He’ll be missed.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

If anyone was ever tailor made for an offense, it’s Wes Welker for the Patriots.  Who loses a Hall of Fame QB in the opening week and hardly misses a beat with a QB that hadn’t started since high school?  Wes Welker, that’s who.  Welker had 112 receptions for 1175 yards with Brady and 111 catches for 1165 yards without him.  The only real difference is the 8 TDs he caught with Brady vs. 3 with Cassel.  I’m still convinced that he could have caught 20 passes in the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, as New York did not have an answer for him. 

The addition of Joey Galloway, who provides another vertical threat can help stretch defense so Welker can work his magic.  He is such a great route runner with amazing hands.  He’s quick, but he’s also shifty, which makes him so tough to defend on quick slants.  He’s even a tough little cat for  his size, taking the hits and popping back up.

Welker is a solid WR2, especially in PPR leagues.  He’ll likely go in the fifth round in standard leagues and as early as the third round in PPR leagues since he catches so many passes.  I see a 110 reception, 1100 yard, 6 TD season for Welker.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Perhaps nobody is as thankful for Tom Brady’s return than Randy Moss.  His receptions took a 30% hit, his yardage a 32.5% hit, and his TDs a 52% hit.  It’s not like his 1008 yards and 11 TDs with Matt Cassel were bad, but it was a far cry from the 1493 & 23 he produced in 2007.  Though it seems like Moss has been in the league forever, he’s just 32 and still should have a few high level seasons in him…if he’s motivated.  I’m sure he’s motivated this year as the Super Bowl loss and TB’s injury have left a bad taste in his mouth.

Despite the amazing 2007 season and being one of the best WRs of all time, I still have Moss ranked as the third best WR.  I just think Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson have a little less risk associated with them.  Of course, Moss is going a few picks after them so he is a slightly better value.  I could see Moss putting up 1200+ yards and 12 TDs.  If Brady shows no lingering effects of his knee injury, those numbers could significantly increase.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

There is a high risk/reward for drafting Tom Brady.  He is coming off a major knee injury that cost him virtually the entire 2008 season.  He set the fantasy world on fire though in 2007 and you can argue he has an even better supporting cast with the addition of Joey Galloway.  Randy Moss put together a solid season with Matt Cassel at the helm, and should return to elite status with Brady back.  Wes Welker just goes out there and catches pass after pass.  He should have no problem catching 100 balls for the third straight year.  He fits so nicely in their system.

The Patriots are usually pretty hush hush regarding injuries, but Brady may play a little more extensively in the preseason since he missed a full season.  So far Brady’s knee is not a cause for concern.

The Pats have a fairly strong schedule facing the Jets and Dolphins twice apiece, plus Baltimore, Tennessee, Carolina, and Jacksonville.  When their Offense is clicking, it doesn’t really matter who they face.  The key will be how Brady handles the pass rush.  He’s a pretty cool customer, but it’s hard to predict how he’ll react when he gets
knocked down a couple times.  My guess is he’ll be fine, but the human psyche is quite unpredictable.  For the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16) Brady faces Carolina, Buffalo, and Jacksonville.  Carolina and Jacksonville are home games so all three have the potential for inclement weather.  It’s not a deal breaker by any means, but something to keep in mind when you are weighing Brady against Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or holding off on a QB for a few rounds as Brady will likely go in the late first/early second round.

It’s hard to project numbers for Brady, but I’ll put him on a 4400, 30 TD season.  Those numbers are better than what I projected for Drew Brees, but I would still take Brees ahead of Brady because of the uncertainty of his knee.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Tom Curran of NBC Sports  is reporting that Tom Brady will participate in the New England Patriots’ Offseason Program without any limitations.  Barring any setbacks it appears that Brady will be ready to roll for the Pats in their season opener against Buffalo.  This should ease any concerns of Patriots fans and keeper league owners of Brady, as well as cement Brady into the top three or four in fantasy Quarterback rankings.  Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Joey Galloway also get a little bump in their fantasy value with the news.

J.D., a young Bleacher Report writer and creator of The Sports Report with J.D., contacted me to see if I wanted to post some of his articles on the site.  Always looking to encourage an aspiring writer, I agreed.   J.D. discusses NFL rumors.

J.D. discusses Torry Holt
Unfortunately Holt is on vacation so don’t expect a signing any time soon, though a lot of teams are interested.

Before he was released by the Rams, the Tennessee Titans were in negotiations to acquire Holt in a trade.  They could use him along with newly acquired Nate Washington and holdover Justin Gage.  That would give Tennessee a solid trio of wides, and it would allow Holt to remain a #1 receiver.

The 49ers could also express interest in Torry Holt, although they have concerns with the condition of his knees.  He would add a veteran presence to a team featuring Brandon Jones, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis.

The Jaguars could also express interest in Holt after releasing Matt Jones.

Keep an eye on the Ravens.  He would join Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and Todd Heap in the passing game while being a No. 1 target for Joe Flacco.

How about them Colts? He would be a great replacement for Marvin Harrison.

My favorite though is the Eagles. Holt would make a great target for Donovan McNabb.  McNabb called for more weapons, and Holt would qualify.  He would take pressure off of Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson in the passing game. 

Lester Discusses Julius Peppers Situation
According to several sources, unidentified by NFL.com, the Patriots have expressed interest in aquiring Julius Peppers, who earlier this year was slapped with the franchise tag.  Peppers wants to make the switch from Defensive End in a 4-3 system to Outside Linebacker in a 3-4, which the Patriots run. 

According to NFL.com’s Vic Carucci the Patriots would send the second-round pick (34th overall) acquired from Kansas City in the Matt Cassel trade to Carolina for the four-time Pro Bowler.  Since Peppers has yet to sign the franchise tender, his camp will have to broker the deal. 

Many thought the Patriots were crazy taking a second-round pick for Matt Cassel, but if they can turn that pick into Julius Peppers, Bill Belichick will come out smelling like roses.  New England has long been ahead of the curve with personnel matters, and while it appeared that they could have received a first rounder, the economics of that pick may have made it more difficult to move.

New England just missed the playoffs last year at 11-5 despite losing their franchise player Tom Brady early on Opening Day.  Matt Cassel filled in admirably and received the franchise tag.  The Pats may be holding onto Matt in case Brady is ready or they could be looking to deal him and made sure he wouldn’t get away without compensation.  I don’t need to tell you the Patriots are pretty hush hush.  Laurence Maroney should be back, but it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy.  Sammy Morris will also be in the mix.  At this point, Morris is probably the RB I’d select first in a fantasy draft.  LaMont Jordan is a free agent, and likely won’t return.  Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will round out the RB position.  FB Heath Evans is also a Free Agent, but I suspect he’s re-signed.  He’s a protypical Patriots player.  Randy Moss and Wes Welker will lead the WRs once again.  Jabar Gaffney is an Unrestricted Free Agent.  Knowing the way the Pats operate, he’ll likely have to leave money on the table to return.  Ben Watson returns at TE.  Offensively the Pats will probably make minor adjustments and draft guys that fit their system.

S Rodney Harrison is a question mark.  He’s a Free Agent, but at his age it might be best for the Patriots to close the door on him.  They have done well in recent drafts with LB Jerod Mayo and S Brandon Meriweather.  They once again need to get younger at LB and add some talent in their secondary.  The return of Adalius Thomas will help, but they are going to need to add some Pass Rushers.  They were middle-of-the road with 31.  It will be intersting to see how they operate without Scott Pioli, but I think they will be able to make the adjustment and continue to thrive.

KFFL Free Agent Tracker:

It appears the Patriots’ Interchangeable Parts theory may have finally got the best of them.  For years they lived with the philosophy that they could plug in new parts without any regard to the players they were casting off.  I don’t think they appreciated the players any more.  When a player asked for more, they got shown the door.  Success may have got to their head.  Instead of developing young talent, they turned to aging veterans because they came at a good price tag, and you didn’t have to live with rookie mistakes.  The Patriots also got away with what they do well.  They swung and missed in the 2006 NFL Draft going Offense by taking RB Laurence Maroney and WR Chad Jackson, both of who have been disappointments.  They knew their LB corps was aging.  Wouldn’t DeMeco Ryans have been a nice fit instead of Maroney?  Instead of addressing a serious need at LB they continued to try and patch the problem.  Chad Jackson has never lived up to the hype.  He’s not the type of player they do well.  They’re good at taking guys like Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork. and Ty Warren.  The Patriots figured that with Tom Brady they could beat anybody.  So much so that they operated without a safety net.  When Brady went down they were forced to go with a QB who didn’t even have college experience, let alone NFL experience.  Their miss at RB in Maroney (Addai, MJD, and LenDale White all were picked after him) left them without a consistent ground attack.  So you have an inexperienced QB, an inconsistent ground game, and holes in both your linebacking corps and your secondary.  That is not the Patriot way that we’ve grown accustomed to.  I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that they’ll get it turned around, I’ve just lost some of the faith.

The Patriots will look to avoid the Super Bowl hangover. I expect a different mentality for the Patriots starting from the top down. With Spygate in their rearview mirror, the Patriots can focus on football. They will no longer feel the need to hang forty points on their opponents. They don’t have to justify their dominance in a manner that in the end could have led to their demise. When you pass as often as they did, it puts a lot of pressure on their offensive line. They never really established their rushing attack, and it ultimately failed them when they needed it the most. Look for them to be more committed to the run to wear defenses down to win the time of possession battle and keep their defense off the field.

In the Passing game, I don’t see as many deep routes. They will utilize more quick slant routes and timing patterns. They will also use more screen plays as LaMont Jordan has joined Kevin Faulk to give the Pats a pair of capable receivers out of the backfield. If you look back to the Super Bowl, this is what worked. Wes Welker could not be accounted for. To this day I contend that if short passes to Welker caught 20 passes that day, in essence making him the focus your ball-control rather than the RBs who couldn’t shake loose, the outcome may have been different. They truly had no answer for Welker. Obviously you can’t subject Welker to that sort of pounding all season long so Gaffney, the backs, and Benjamin Watson will have to get more in the mix. When defense try and shut down the underneath routes is when Randy Moss and Tom Brady will exploit them over the top.

Defensively the lost some leaders, but the Patriots’ M.O. is to replace those pieces and move on without much of a hitch. I feel they will be up for the challenge. I see Jered Mayo being a big playmaker for the Pats. If the Offense can control the clock keeping this unit fresh, I feel they can be one of the best defensive units in the league.

The Patriots won’t complete another perfect regular season. They’ll drop a couple of games along the way (including one to the Jets). They will win their divison as well as a first round bye. They will return to the Super Bowl, only this time they’ll leave a happier crew.

Fantasy-wise I don’t see the Patriots being as dominant.  Tom Brady and Randy Moss won’t come near their 2007 production.  Sorry, those numbers were historic, and won’t be approached any time soon.  This doesn’t mean they won’t be top end players at their respective positons, it just means they won’t be breaking any records htis year.  I even see Welker taking a small step back in terms of production.  I see increased production for Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson, assuming they can stay healthy.  The tough thing about being a Patriots owner is you may not get much from them in the Fantasy Playoffs.  Keep that in mind when assembling your team.