2009 was a disaster for the New York Mets. It seemed that if something could go wrong, it did. 2010 wasn’t much better for the Mets, but at least David Wright (.283-87-29-103-19) and Jose Reyes (.282-83-11-54-30) rebounded. Now the question is can Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran do the same?
Jason Bay was a disappointment coming over from Boston and posting a forgettable .259-48-6-47-10 line. He was limited to 95 games due to a concussion, similar to Justin Morneau, who also coincidentally hails from Canada. When he did play, he was mediocre at best, the only saving grace was the double-digit stolen bases.
That doesn’t mean he’s a lost cause. David Wright struggled with the long ball in his first season in CitiPark, but rebounded nicely last year. Perhaps he just has to attack the park differently. Prior to last year Bay averaged 100.6 runs, 31 HRs, 102.8 RBI, and 11.8 SBs in the five previous seasons so I’m hopeful for a rebound. His ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, is 142 overall and 37th outfielder. He’s a pretty solid option in the 12th round of fantasy drafts.
Beltran is less of a risk based on his ADP of 223 (51st outfielder), but his knees have cost him the better part of two seasons. He hasn’t had fantasy relevance since 2008. Last year Beltran posted a .255-21-7-27-3 line in 64 games. He did end the year on a high note going 25 for 78 (.321) with 12 runs, five HRs, 13 RBI, and two SBs in 78 September at bats. His OPS of .968 was particularly encouraging.
If he can stay healthy, the power and the average could return. I’m not confident that a player with bad knees that’s turning 34 in April will terrorize the basepaths again, but if he can manage 8-10, that would be a nice contribution. His ADP puts him in the 19th round. I say why the heck not take a shot on him there.
I wouldn’t bet the farm that one or both of these former five-tool outfielders returns to form, but I would definitely say they are worth the risk. I realize that Bay could be out for a long time if he suffers another concussion and Beltran’s knees are a risk, but they are calculated risks and worth the gamble.
What are your thoughts on Bay and Beltran?
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If you took Jose Reyes in your fantasy drafts despite his thyroid condition, your gamble paid off. A day after playing a full game (going 2 for 5) in an extended spring training game, Reyes played another five innings (going 1 for 5) today.
After missing most of the 2009 season, the thyroid condition scared off fantasy owners. However, from 2005-2008 Reyes missed just15 of the possible 648 games (2.3%).
Daily league owners can use him right away. Weekly league owners have the weekend to make the determination whether to use him or not.
“The Lineup: New York’s All-Time Best Baseball Players,” a new original series and interactive fantasy game that will determine the best baseball players in the history of New York, will air its second episode tomorrow night on MSG Network with “First Basemen,” the second of ten weekly episodes. Not surprisingly Yogi Berra was the all-time Catcher. Each 30-minute episode of “The Lineup” will present a number of nominees for consideration at each position, from the Yankees, Mets, New York Giants and Brooklyn Dodgers, with one episode dedicated to the best New York manager of all-time. MSG’s Fran Healy will host a panel, consisting of Hall of Fame Mets catcher Gary Carter, former Yankee bullpen ace Sparky Lyle, New York Magazine contributing editor and baseball aficionado Will Leitch, and executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau Steve Hirdt. The panel will whittle down a larger list of players from each position and determine the top five from each spot on the diamond. By the end of each episode, they will crown the top player at each position and name him to the official “Lineup” card.
With an interactive fantasy game launched in conjunction with the on-air program and hosted on http://msg.com/lineup/, viewers can see how they stack up against The Lineup’s experts. Fans will try to predict the five players who will be nominated each week and ultimately who will be selected as the starter in the final “Lineup.” Participants will receive points for each correct pick and will be eligible for weekly prizes such as signed memorabilia from baseball greats like Don Mattingly, Joe Torre, Reggie Jackson and Derek Jeter. At the end of the series, the participant with the most points will win a Grand Prize. The site will also feature chats for fans to interact and debate each position, quizzes about the nominated players, photo and video galleries, and player statistics for fans to comb through before making their picks.
Image courtesy of Icon SMI
I was very high on Jason Bay last year. I figured he would drive in a ton of runs with Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia at the top of Boston’s lineup. He did not disappoint with 36 HRs and 119 RBIs despite missing eleven games.
He’s moved on to the Mets this year, and he still figures to have plenty of opportunities hitting behind the likes of Jose Reyes and David Wright. He has reached 100+ RBIs in four of his last five years, with nearly four of those years coming in Pittsburgh, so I don’t see him having a problem reaching that figure.
He has also reached 100+ runs, 30+ HRs, and 10+ SBs in four of those five years. If you take away his down year (2007), he’s quietly been one of the best all-around outfielders in baseball.
I’m afraid he’ll have a hard time reaching two of those marks this year though. The move to CitiField will likely cost him some HRs. I’m expecting more doubles and fewer long balls this year. I’m also not confident enough in the Mets’ offense that he’ll reach 100 runs.
Despite those two question marks, I still think he makes for a #1 fantasy outfielder (click to see rankings). He should be solid in all five categories.
Prediction: .280, 90 runs, 27 HRs, 105 RBIs, 10 SBs
Coincidentally the Rotoprofessor is covering Jason Bay today as well. Click here to see his take.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles: Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox: Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs: Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox: Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians: Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin
Houston Astros: Lance Berkman
Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Howie Kendrick
Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney
Milwaukee Brewers: Corey Hart
Minnesota Twins: Joe Nathan
Now an early look at the NL East.
1. Will Tommy Hanson lead the Braves in Wins?
There is a decent chance he does. Jair Jurrjens pitched about as well as you can imagine last year and only managed to win 14 games. Tim Hudson always has question marks. Derek Lowe hasn’t won 16 games since 2006. That leave Hanson who won 11 in 21 starts. He stumbled a bit in July (1-2, 3.94 ERA), but rebounded nicely to finish the year off.
2. Can Billy Wagner hold up?
He sure looked good for Boston last year. He had good velocity. He’s getting up there in age, but I believe the lefty could put together a 30 save season.
3. Will Ricky Nolasco bounce back?
Nolasco was high on everyone’s list going into last year after his 15-8, 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 2008. Sure, his ERA bloated to 5.06, but his WHIP was a very respectable 1.25. What’s more is he had a better strikout ratio (9.49 K/9 compared to 7.88). Plus, he was 11-4 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP from June through the end of the year. Hopefully his first half struggles and overall numbers let him slide in your drafts making him a great value in 2010.
4. Will Leo Nunez hold on to the Closer gig?
It’s his job to lose, but do note that he blew seven of his 33 save opportunites (21 percent). He was even worse in December with three blown saves in 11 chances with a 6.10 ERA.
5. Is Citi Field cursed?
I can’t recall a team going through as many injuries at the Mets did last year. Reyes, Wright (see where he ranks among 2010 Third Basemen), Johan, Beltran, the list goes on and on. Seriously though, I think the offense will be fine. Jason Bay adds his big bat to an already impressive lineup (when healthy). The trouble is their pitching. I don’t see them having enough starting pitching to compete with Atlanta or Philadelphia.
6. Will Cole Hamels return to form?
I can’t think of a more important question for the Phillies. I think the role of Superman in the postseason may have got to his head a bit. He received a lot of negative attention when he said he couldn’t wait until the season was over. I didn’t take it as him quitting rather the year took a toll on him. I think he’ll work hard to get back to the level he and his fantasy owners have grown accustomed to. Despite his struggles, he did manage to produce a decent ERA (4.32) and a solid WHIP (1.29). He doesn’t have the pressure of being the ace of the staff anymore either.
7. Will Jayson Werth continue to be a fantasy beast?
After a solid 2008 season, Werth’s numbers exploded last year as he scored 98 runs, hit 36 HRs, and had 99 RBIs. He matched his 2008 SB total with 20. He’ll turn 31 early in the year, and I see no reason he can’t continue to produce at a high level, especially in that lineup.
8. Should you draft Stephen Strasburg?
Only in deep keeper leagues. He means too much to the future of the Nationals for them to rush him along. If you’re in a league with three or four keepers, he won’t be worth hanging onto just yet. Be patient with him, like the Nationals will be.
9. Will Nyjer Morgan continue to produce?
I don’t see why not. He was solid for Pittsburgh before being dealt to Washington, where he was even better. He hit .351 with 35 runs and 24 SBs in 49 games with the Nationals.
Posted by LestersLegends
Categories: fantasy baseball
| Tagged: Atlanta Braves
, Billy Wagner
, Cole Hamels
, fantasy baseball
, Florida Marlins
, Jayson Werth
, Leo Nunez
, New York Mets
, NL East
, Philadelphia Phillies
, Ricky Nolasco
, Stephen Strasburg
, Tommy Hanson
, Washington Nationals
WFAN is reporting that Jason Bay has agreed to a deal with the New York Mets. Once he passes his physical he’ll give them much-needed power in the middle of their lineup. Bay, along with a healthy Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright should give the Mets a formidable lineup.
The deal is rumored to be worth $65 million over four years.
The losers of the Jason Bay Sweepstakes will now focus on Matt Holliday. Look for the price tag to go up considerably.
Image courtesy of Icon SMI
New York Mets ace Johan Santana joins the long line of injured Mets players. Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, David Wright, the list goes on. It’s staggering. Now their ace is gone for the year. Where does that leave you as your fantasy team winds down? In a big hole, that’s where. If you are fantasy team is unlike the Mets and still in the chase, you’ve got to find a way to somehow replace the lost production. Obviously, you aren’t getting someone to slide in without missing a beat. Here are some options guys who have pitched well the past month:
Derek Holland, Texas Rangers – 4 Wins, 28 Ks, 1.85 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Ownership: 63% Yahoo! Plus, 25% Yahoo! Public, 7.6% ESPN, 62% CBS
Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants – 2 Wins, 28 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Ownership: 61% Yahoo! Plus, 26% Yahoo! Public, 12.2% ESPN, 67% CBS
Tommy Hunter, Texas Rangers – 4 Wins, 26 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Ownership: 76% Yahoo! Plus, 37% Yahoo! Public, 11% ESPN, 69% CBS
Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds – 1 Win, 21 Ks, 2.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Ownership: 44% Yahoo! Plus, 24% Yahoo! Public, 23.2% ESPN, 71% CBS
Ross Ohlendorf, Pittsburgh Pirates – 3 Wins, 20 Ks, 2.56 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Ownership: 24% Yahoo! Plus, 10% Yahoo! Public, 3.9% ESPN, 39% CBS
San Francisco Second Baseman Freddy Sanchez also landed on the DL because of a strained shoulder that has kept him out of action for seven games. The move was made retroactive to August 18th, meaning he’s eligible to come off the DL next Wednesday, September 2nd. Sanchez isn’t nearly the loss that Johan is, but there are options (with 2B eligibility) to plug in while he’s out. Past month’s stats listed.
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels – .317, 12 Runs, 3 HRs, 17 RBIs, 1 SB
Ownership: 49% Yahoo! Plus, 48% Yahoo! Public, 69.7% ESPN, 42% CBS
Mark Ellis, Oakland A’s – .364, 18 Runs, 2 HRs, 22 RBIs, 2 SBs
Ownership: 25% Yahoo! Plus, 15% Yahoo! Public, 8.2% ESPN, 21% CBS
Eugenio Velez, San Francisco Giants – .300, 19 Runs, 3 HRs, 16 RBIs, 3 SBs
Ownership: 14% Yahoo! Plus, 4% Yahoo! Public, 2.9% ESPN, 8% CBS
Chris Coghlan, Florida Marlins – .366, 16 Runs, 2 HRs, 14 RBIs, 1 SB
Ownership: 57% Yahoo! Plus, 24% Yahoo! Public, 17.4% ESPN, 56% CBS
Ronnie Belliard, Washington Nationals – .387, 15 Runs, 3 HRs, 13 RBIs, 2 SBs
Ownership: 3% Yahoo! Plus, 2% Yahoo! Public, 1.3% ESPN, 2% CBS
Luis Castillo, New York Mets – .365, 15 Runs, 1 HR, 10 RBIs, 4 SBs
Ownership: 26% Yahoo! Plus, 11% Yahoo! Public, 11% ESPN, 27% CBS
Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles Angels – .286, 16 Runs, 3 HRs, 17 RBIs, 2 SBs
Ownership: 56% Yahoo! Plus, 28% Yahoo! Public, 5.6% ESPN, 28% CBS
Ryan Roberts, Arizona Diamondbacks – .341, 10 Runs, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs, 2 SBs
Ownership: 10% Yahoo! Plus, 2% Yahoo! Public, 1.3% ESPN, 6% CBS
Adam Kennedy, Oakland As – .276, 8 Runs, 3 HRs, 13 RBIs, 5 SBs
Ownership: 46% Yahoo! Plus, 21% Yahoo! Public, 8.2% ESPN, 44% CBS
Alexi Casilla, Minnesota Twins – .340, 14 Runs, 9 RBIs, 4 SBs
Ownership: 2% Yahoo! Plus, 3% Yahoo! Public, 0.9% ESPN, 4% CBS
Images courtesy of Icon SMI
Billy Wagner escaped the infirmary that has become the New York Mets’ clubhouse without further injury. ESPN is reporting that Wagner waived his no-trade clause allowing the Mets to deal the reliever to the Boston Red Sox for two players to be named later.
As part of the negotiation, the Red Sox will not pick up Billy Wagner’s 2010 option, but they will be able to offer arbitration, which would allow the Red Sox to get draft pick compensation if he joined another club next year.
There is little fantasy relevance to this deal.
The Mets were forced to put John Maine on the 15-day DL because of shoulder soreness. The Mets just can’t catch a break with the injuries. Maine was 5-4 with a 4.52 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 42 Ks. Fernando Nieve, who was called up when J.J. Putz went on the DL for the Mets, will get the start for Maine tomorrow. In four starts for Triple-A Buffalo Nieve was 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 24-1/3 Innings.
Jeremy Bonderman made just one poor start before his shoulder forced him back on the DL. He gave up 6 Runs in 4 Innings. Dontrelle Willis, who has looked shaky at best since his return, will hold down Bonderman’s spot in the rotation. However, with a 6.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, his spot is exceedingly tenuous.
Face if the Franchise
Image courtesy of Icon SMI
Manager: Davey Johnson
C – Gary Carter
1B – Keith Hernandez
2B – Edgardo Alfonzo
3B – David Wright
SS - Jose Reyes
OF – Cleon Jones
OF – Darryl Strawberry
OF – Mookie Wilson
DH – Mike Piazza
Bench: 1B/OF Ed Kranepool, 3B Howard Johnson, SS Bud Harrelson, OF Carlos Beltran
SP – Tom Seaver
SP – Dwight Gooden
SP – Jerry Koosman
SP – David Cone
SP – Ron Darling
P – Sid Fernandez
P – Al Leiter
P – Jon Matlack
P – Bob Ojeda
RP – Billy Wagner
RP – Tug McGraw
RP – Jesse Orosco
RP – John Franco
That’s the team I came up with. Do you have any changes you’d like to suggest? I’m always open to them.