LestersLegends.com

.
Derek Jeter has failed to reach .300 for two straight years, which was something that he only did three times in his Hall of Fame career prior to 2009. He also hit just six HRs last year. Will he continue to decline or does he have at least another good year ahead of him?
.
Aside from the lack of home runs last year, he had a pretty solid .297-84-6-61-16 line in 131 games.
.
The player that normally isn’t fazed by anything seemed to press a bit while he was in pursuit of his 3000th career hit. He stumbled out of the gate posting a pre-All-Star Game line of .270-42-3-24-8 in 289 at bats with a .683 OPS.
.
He caught a lot of heat for ducking out of the All-Star Game festivities, but you certainly can’t argue with the results. Following the break he posted a .327-42-3-37-8 line in 257 at bats with a .811 OPS.
.
Can that hot finish carry over into 2012? Maybe, but I think the days of a +.800 OPS are behind him.
.
You’re not drafting him for his power though. If he can get you 10-12 home runs it will be nice, but the long ball isn’t his game. Never has been actually. Jeter should give you a solid average around .300 with a bunch of runs scored and a fair share of stolen bases.
.
Jeter’s Mock Draft Central ADP is 120, which puts him at the end of the tenth round in 12-team leagues. He’s also the eighth shortstop to come off the board in their rankings. Pretty fair value for him.
.
Don’t buy him for name value. If you want to get one of the big guns at short, make it happen. If you want to wait and address other needs, Jeter is a nice safe choice. In the Yankees’ potent offense and favorable ballpark, he should put up another solid season.
.
If you’re more interested in Jeter’s track record of girlfriends, you can check out the photo evidence here.
.
.
Also check out:

• 2012 Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball First Base Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Second Base Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Closer Options
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
• AL-Only Fantasy Baseball Rankings
• NL-Only Fantasy Baseball Rankings

.
By Jeff P.
.
Ivan Nova had one of the most dominant starts of his career on Monday. He turned a huge hitters’ park into a pitchers’ park.
.
Nova didn’t look like himself giving up one run over eight innings. He struck out seven to shut down the Reds. He didn’t even give up a walk—an obvious sign of improvement.
.
Russell Martin told the AP, “It looked like he felt confident even though he had to battle in the first inning. After that, it looked like a piece of cake for him. Even after he got behind in the count, he wasn’t afraid to go after them.”
.
After Nova’s eight innings, two relievers came in and they had some trouble keeping up Nova’s gem before Mariano Rivera came in and easily got his 18th save of the season.
.
Before his gem, Nova was having trouble getting past the sixth inning. So what does this mean?
.
It looks like to me that once Nova overcomes the first five or six innings, he gains confidence which leads him through a smooth performance.
.
Since the beginning of June, he has been better than ever. He is 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA for the month. Since the beginning of May he’s 6-1 with a 3.51 ERA.
.
Is the poised Yankee rookie ready to go to the next level?
.
.

Also check out:

• Can Brian Duensing Get on Track?
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Strikeout Kings Vol. 5
• Is Nick Swisher Safe to Use Again?
• The Cutter: Why Dominance Is Shifting from Plate to Mound
• The Need For Speed

.

You can follow Jeff @ http://twitter.com/#!/TheMLBNBAexpert.

.
After a brilliant 2010 season that saw Swisher hit .288 with 29 home runs and 89 RBI Swisher was a hot commodity heading into the year.
.
He began the year hitting .204 through May 25th, making his dreadful 2008 season (.219 average) look decent. At least he was hitting a home run every 20.7 at bats that season. He only had two in his first 152 at bats (76 AB/HR).
.
Since then he Swisher has gone 22 for 72 (.306) with five home runs, which is good for a HR every 14.4 at bats. His hot streak brings his AB/HR rate up to 32.0 for the season. He’s not likely to continue his hot clip as he averaged 18.3 ABs/HR over the past two years, but it’s a good sign nonetheless.
.
As is his competence at the plate. Hitting around the Mendoza Line made him too big of a risk. It’s one thing if he was putting up power numbers like Mark Reynolds or Carlos Pena, which could offset his brutal average, but the lack of power only compounded the problem.
.
Part of his turnaround can be attributed to better luck. After posting BABIPs of .257 and .254 in March/April and May, Swisher is at .310 for June. It’s still a far cry from his .335 mark last year, but it’s still a solid number.
.
Swisher is still struggling against righties hitting .187 vs. .348 against lefties. He’ll obviously face more righties so you’ll be limited if you only use him against lefties. If you have the bench depth to do so, it’s not a bad plan. Otherwise just sit him against the upper echelon righties.
.
What are your thoughts on Nick Swisher?
.
.

Also check out:

• The Cutter: Why Dominance Is Shifting from Plate to Mound
• The Need For Speed
• Is A.J. Burnett Due for a Crash?
• Can Nick Markakis Turn His Season Around?
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Run Scorers Vol. 5

.
A.J. Burnett sits at 6-4 with a 4.37 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 60 strikeouts in 80-1/3 innings. He got bombed by the Red Sox (5-2/3 innings, seven earned runs) the last time out. Was that a bump in the road or a sign that things are about to sour for the enigmatic pitcher?
.
He got off to a great start last year going 3-0 with a 2.43 in April and 3-2 with a 4.03 ERA in May. He nosedived in June going 0-5 with a 11.35 ERA. So far this year A.J. was 4-1 in April with a 3.93 ERA, 1-2 in May with a 4.06 ERA, and 1-1 in June with a 6.39 ERA. While the trend is alarming, it’s not a certainty that history will repeat itself.
.
Burnett’s BABIP is cause for concern though. He’s among the league leaders with a .242 mark. The past three years his BABIP was .319, .295, and .314. In his 12 seasons before this year he never  had a BABIP below .250 and eight times it was above .280. While it’s possible that he can keep his mark low, he has a pretty lengthy track record that suggests otherwise.
.
His strikeout rate continues to decline. At 6.72 K/9 it’s the lowest it has been since 2001. At 34 and with 290 starts and 1850-1/3 innings under his belt that is not uncommon. Veteran pitchers have to find new ways of getting people out or find a new line of work.
.
While the signs of regression are there, Burnett is a streaky pitcher. Ride him while he’s on. If you want to sit him when the match-up is not in his favor, that makes sense. He’s not the backbone of your fantasy staff, but he can get the job done on occasion. If he continues to struggle then you’ll obviously want to cut bait.
.
.
Also check out:

• Can Nick Markakis Turn His Season Around?
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Run Scorers Vol. 5
• The Stream Team
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Speed Demons Vol. 5
• Where’s the Love for Miguel Olivo?

.
Big Papi is off to a great start. The guy that has struggled to start the past few seasons is hitting .292 with 18 runs, six home runs, 18 RBI, and a .865 OPS. It’s hard to sit someone that is producing like Ortiz is, but this may be a good time to.
.
While he is hitting .333 (12-36) against lefties this year, he hit just .222 against them last year, .212 against them in 2009, .221 in 2008. You get the point. For his career he is hitting .259 against them with an OPS of .799, as compared to .290 and .968 against right-handed pitching.
.
This isn’t just ordinary left-handed pitching either. We’re talking C.C. Sabathia. He is one of the most dominating pitchers in the game.
.
Big Papi, like most lefties, has had his struggles with Sabathia. His lifetime average is .237 (9-38) with two HRs (.714 OPS). Papi was one for three against him earlier this year, but was one for nine against him last year.
.
You carry guys on your bench for a reason. It’s not just for Mondays and Thursdays when the baseball schedule is light. If you are locked in a close battle for batting average (weekly leagues), you probably have someone with a better probability to succeed.
.
I’m not saying Big Papi can’t get it done against C.C. After all, he is one of the few guys that has had regular success (8-24) against Mariano Rivera. I just think if you have a solid option on your bench, you might as well let Papi sit this one out.
.
.

Also check out:

• Help Is Coming:  Should You Add Brian Matusz?
• Is John Axford Over the Hump?
• Can Kevin Correia Sustain His Early Success?
• Is Brandon Beachy the Real Deal?
• Is Matt Joyce For Real?

.
Mark Teixeira is a notorious slow starter. His lifetime batting average in March and April is .235. He’s a .294 hitter in the other months. He hits a home run every 27 at bats in March and April. He homers every 15.8 at bats in the other months. His early batting averages the past two years have been dreadful.
.
2010:  .136, two HRs
2009:  .200, three HRs
.
Not only have his averages been dreadful, his slugging percentages (.259 last year, .371 in 2009). He combined for 22 runs and 19 RBI in the two years, but that only averages out to about 5.5 runs and 4.75 RBI per week. Obviously he has great power potential averaging 34.4 home runs per season in his eight years, but is he worth the harm that he could do to your batting average early on?
.
If you have a decent option on the bench, I say why not. At least until he proves you wrong. He faces Justin Verlander on Opening Day. Tex has just one hit in 17 at bats lifetime against him (.059 batting average). Next up is Brad Penny (.182 lifetime) and then Max Scherzer (0 for 4). He’s also 0 for 3 against Tiger closer Jose Valverde. It certainly doesn’t look good out of the gate for the switch-hitting slugger. All three Tiger starters and Valverde are right-handed. Tex hit .247 against righties last year.
.
You may be tempted to use Teixeira because he’s hitting well this spring, but he hit .362 and .433 respectively in the past two spring trainings. I’m not saying to bench him for the entire month of April, but play it by ear with him. I certainly wouldn’t shy away from sitting him against the Tigers given all the signs.
.
Unless his owner is a newbie I wouldn’t try to buy low on Teixeira. His slow starts are fairly common knowledge. It’s probably not worth your effort.
.
.

Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Picks
• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Closer Rankings

.
Rotoworld suggested that Brett Garnder, who has been leading off recently in spring training games for the New York Yankees, could start the season off in that slot. Gardner, who scored 97 runs in 569 plate appearances could challenge for the league lead in runs scored if he is hitting out of that slot. For starter, he sports a solid .383 on-base percentage. With his ability to get on base, along with his excellent base stealing ability, in the powerful Yankees lineup, 100+ runs seems like a certainty.
.
Furthermore, Gardner hit .344 with nobody on and nobody out. He hit .295 with the bases empty and just .255 with runners on. Brett lead off in 25 games last year, batting .290 with a .412 OBP.  Jeter stuggled hitting second last year (.157 average), but has spent the bulk of his career hitting second. The similarity of his numbers leading off and hitting second is staggering. Leading off Jeter is hitting .313 with a .385  OBP, .454 slugging percentage, and a .839 OPS. Out of the two-hole he’s hitting .314 with a .384 OBP, a .456 slugging percentage, and a .840 OPS.
.
Gardner spent the bulk of his ABs in the eighth and ninth slots. If he were to lead off he would see an increase in plate appearances, which would have a positive effect on his counting numbers. He would certainly be a great value with his current ADP of 180. Garnder is batting .270 this spring with four stolen bases.
.
The  Toronto Blue Jays are considering using speedster Rajai Davis at the top of their lineup as well. Davis stole 50 bases in 561 plate appearances last year. Like Gardner, Davis excelled with the bases empty hitting .302. Davis hit .291 leading off and .277 in the other spots in the batting order. If he leads off for the Blue Jays, Davis will be an extreme fantasy value according to his 237 ADP.
.
When you are getting ready for your fantasy baseball drafts keep in mind that we could be experiencing a stolen base renaissance with Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Rajai Davis all looking to steal 60+ bases.