LestersLegends.com

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Jake Delhomme (14.25) beat Eli Manning (8.45) WHICH I WON. 
Willie Parker (26.6) beat Chris Johnson (16.0) WHICH I WON. 
Justin Gage +1.5 [15.0 (13.5 actual + 1.5)] beat Muhsin Muhammad (5.5) WHICH I LOST. 

Record:  2-1

 Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Playoff Picks:  4-2 (.667)
Overall:  64-43 (.598)

Running Back
 
Edgerrin James over Willie Parker
Both of these backs have had playoff success after disappointing regular seasons.  I think Edge is more likely to continue his resurgence since he doesn’t have to face Baltimore.  Not that Philly is a pushover, but the Ravens are playing some sick ball right now.

Wide Receiver
  
Kevin Curtis over Derrick Mason
I am categorizing this one in the “hunch department”.  I see McNabb relying heavily on Curtis to get to the Super Bowl.  Westy is banged up and he’ll go to the vet rather than rookie DeSean Jackson.  Mason has to face a tough Pittsburgh D that won’t take it easy like they did last week at the end of the Chargers victory.

We’re getting down to the wire.  Here are my Conference Championship feelings.

Quarterbacks
Love:
Kurt Warner – When you have a guy like Larry Fitzgerald at your disposal, it’s hard to not love the guy.  Playing at home should serve Warner well.

Donovan McNabb – I’m a huge fan of both NFC signal callers this week.  McNabb has looked so poised during the playoffs.  He’s dealt with Jared Allen and Justin Tuck.  This week should seem like a breeze.

Like:
Ben Roethlisberger – It’s easier to pass on Baltimore than run so that is likely the route Pittsburgh will take.  He has the weapons in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller to move the sticks.

Hate:
Joe Flacco – Another week, another tough D for the Rookie. 

Running Backs
Love: 
Brian Westbrook – Westy is the key to the Eagles success.  He should be a dual threat once again.

Like:
Le’Ron McClain – Pittsburgh will be up for the task, but Baltimore is going to have to stick to the ground game.
Willie Parker – Parker was amazing last week.  It won’t be as easy against Baltimore, but he should be as good as any RB not named Westbrook this weekend.
Edgerrin James – His revival should continue this week agaisnt Philly.  Not expecting a big game from him, but he should be decent.
Tim Hightower – I don’t expect a ton of yardage, but I could see a score.

Hate:
Willis McGahee/Correll Buckhalter/Gary Russell – I don’t think this will be a great week for backup RBs.

Wide Receiver
Love:
Larry Fitzgerald – How can you not love him?  He’s just awesome.

Like:
Hines Ward – The next best WR remaining (assuming Boldin can’t go)
DeSean Jackson – I think the Rookie can make some big plays against the Cards.
Santonio Holmes – Could get open deep.
Derrick Mason – A solid, not spectacular, game is what I’ve come to expect from Mason.
Kevin Curtis – Great at picking his spots.  McNabb will hit him if he’s open.
Steve Breaston – Philly is going to gear up on stopping Fitz, which could allow Breaston to slip by coverage.

Hate:
Mark Clayton – I don’t see him doing much against Pittsburgh.

Tight Ends
Love:
Heath Miller – The best Tight End remaining.

Like:
Brent Celek – Celek is beginning to carve out a bigger role in the offense.

Hate:
Todd Heap – Plenty of blocking duty this week.
Leonard Pope – Not a factor.

Last Week:  2-2 (Carolina, New York Giants) let me down

Previous Lock to Win Picks:  NE (W), NYG (W),  BUF (W), SD (W), DAL (W), WAS (L), HOU (W), NYJ (W), JAX (L), CAR (W), PHI (Tie), CHI (W), TENN (W), MN (W), INDY (W), NO (W), ATL (W)

Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  STL (W), BUF (L), CIN (W), KC (L), MIA (L), DET (W), SEA (W), NO (L), OAK (W), CHI (W), HOU (W), SD (W), PHI (L), CLE (W), SF (W), JAX (W), TENN (W)

Regular Season Lock Picks: 25-8-1 (.750)
Regular Season Total:  159-96-1 (.623)
Playoffs: 4-4 (.500)
Overall:  163-100-1 (.619)

Championship Round Playoff Picks
Philadelphia Eagles over Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers

Now that my second Super Bowl pick (Carolina) went bust I have to adjust my rankings yet again.

Before you start your playoff rankings you need to figure out how many games you expect each team to play.  I’m going with Baltimore and Philadelphia now in the Super Bowl so here is how my new breakdown goes:

Baltimore – 2
Philadelphia – 2
Arizona – 1
Pittsburgh – 1

Here are my top players per position based on my above playoff projections:

QB
1.  Donovan McNabb – McNabb and Warner are the best QBs remaining.  One of the two will be playing two games.  Since Baltimore-Pittsburgh is no gimme, I like taking a risk by employing one of the NFC QBs.  If you’re right, you’re golden.  If not, just take the other one next week. 
2.  Kurt Warner – See above.
3.  Ben Roethlisberger – This matchup will be a war.  I like Big Ben better this week.  Either way, I’d prefer an NFC QB in the Super Bowl.
4.  Joe Flacco – If he makes it to the Super Bowl, he could have a decent game.  I don’t see big things from him in Pittsburgh though.

RB
1.  Brian Westbrook – Easily the most electric back left in the playoffs.  Gets to face the weakest D (tell that to Carolina though).
2.  Le’Ron McClain – He’s basically here because I think he’ll play twice.  He’ll be a better bet in the Super Bowl if he makes it than this week against Pittsburgh.
3.  Willie Parker – Willie Parker came up huge against San Diego.  Things get tougher for him this week, but with their D, he has a good shot of playing twice.
4.  Edgerrin James – The Cards have turned to the Edge at the right time. 
5.  Tim Hightower – The RB most likely to punch one in next week.
6.  Willis McGahee – The best of the backups.
7.  Correll Buckhalter – If Philly gets up big on Arizona again, he could finish them off.
8.  Gary Russell – Perhaps the second most likely to score a TD.

WR
1.  Larry Fitzgerald – The best receiver remaining by far.  Asante and the Eagles will have their work cut out for them.
2.  Derrick Mason – Flacco sure like Mason.  Why wouldn’t you?
3.  Hines Ward – He is such a complete WR.
4.  DeSean Jackson – Speedy rookie could get deep vs. Cards.
5.  Santonio Holmes – Big, play guy.
6.  Anquan Boldin – If he can go, he’ll bring it.
7.  Mark Clayton – Could get open deep against the Ravens.
8.  Kevin Curtis – Great route runner with sure hands.  McNabb will find him.