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Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Earlier in the week we took a look some of the trends in players who were targeted by their team’s in Week 6 (click here to view).  Now, let’s dive into some of the performances to try and determine who is for real and who may have been a one week wonder.

Ray Rice was targeted 11 times.
He’s been on a three-week upswing in targets (7 to 8 to 11), while Willis McGahee has been on a three-week downswing (3 to 1 to 0).  Rice has also carried the ball 35 times over the past three weeks, to McGahee’s 13.  Needless to say, it has become apparent that this is Rice’s team, with McGahee’s early season success more of a mirage.  If you have an opportunity to move on from McGahee, I wouldn’t hesitate.

Owen Daniels was targeted 9 times.
Daniels has become one of the most targeted tight ends, getting the second most looks on the Texans (to Andre Johnson) each of the past three weeks.  When you are talking about a tight end position where you never really know where the next big game is going to come from, what more can you ask for?

Lee Evans was targeted 11 times.
That matches the number of targets he had had the previous two games combined.  Of course, a lot of Buffalo’s problems rest on the shoulders of Trent Edwards, who is out this week due to a concussion.  If Ryan Fitzpatrick shows signs of life, a permanent change could be in order.  He does suffer from a weaker throwing arm, which isn’t going to help take advantage of Evans’ speed.

Steve Smith (CAR) was targeted 5 times.
The Panthers just can’t seem to get him the ball, can they?  He has just 21 catches over the season’s first five games, including just one catch for four yards in week six.  Unfortunately he draws a Bills defense ranked fourth best against the pass, allowing just 170.7 yards per game.  It doesn’t seem like the best week for him to break out of his funk, but I guess you never know.

Greg Olsen was targeted 10 times.
Many people expected Jay Cutler’s presence to allow Olsen to finally breakout, so it certainly is nice to see him getting the opportunity.  He had five catches for 57 yards last week and has caught a touchdown in each of the past three games (though one was his only catch of the game).

Andre Caldwell was targeted 9 times.
He’s sprinkled in a few good games, recording six catches three separate times already this season.  Unfortunately, he has not racked up more than 57 yards and has scored just two touchdowns, so it’s not like you can depend on that on a week-to-week basis.  If he is given significant opportunity against the Bears this week maybe he’ll have potential value, but right now he’s too much of a crapshoot.

Mohammad Massaquoi was targeted 10 times.
He’s the best receiver on a really poor offensive team, so of course that is going to lead to opportunities.  The real question is, does it also lead to fantasy value?  It certainly doesn’t hurt, but if he’s never gone to find the end zone (he has yet to score a touchdown), it’s going to take a lot to make him usable.  How often is he really going to catch eight passes for 148 yards?

Eddie Royal was targeted 4 times.
It came one week after being targeted 15 times, though having returned both a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown, he was given time off to recover.  That’s not exactly what fantasy owners want to hear, but at least he still had value.  I’d certainly expect his opportunities to increase this week.

Jermichael Finley was targeted 5 times.
That’s nothing special, but it was third most on the Packers and all five targets led to receptions (for 54 yards).  He has 11 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown over his last two games and could continue to roll against the Browns this week.  If you are in need of a tight end, he is worth rolling the dice on.

Michael Sims-Walker was targeted 11 times.
If he only hadn’t been suspended for week five, huh?  He’s the best receiver on the Jaguars, so it should not be a surprise that he continues to produce.

Bernard Berrian was targeted 5 times.
Well that’s not what fantasy owners had been expecting, is it?  The Vikings continue to be a running team, but when they turn to the air Brett Favre has done a good job of spreading the ball around.  No receiver has had more than seven targets in each of the past two weeks.  That doesn’t mean that you should avoid Vikings receivers, because they certainly can still contribute (as evidenced by Sidney Rice’s six reception, 176 yard performance in week six).

Wes Welker was targeted 11 times.
He’s the only receiver in the league to have double-digit targets the past three weeks and with Julian Edelman out and Joey Galloway released, it’s safe to assume that the trend will continue.

Steve Smith (NYG) was targeted 6 times.
After 16 targets in week four, he’s had just 10 targets total the past two weeks.  Over that time Hakeem Nicks was targeted 14 times and Mario Manningham 12 (as well as Domenik Hixon returning last week and being targeted seven times).  Could the Giants be moving back to spreading the ball around a bit more?

Dustin Keller was targeted 10 times.
That comes with Jerricho Cotchery out of the line-up, which will once again be the case in the coming week.  That could mean a lot more looks for Keller, but will it translate into a better performance (he caught just two passes for 16 yards last week)?  Against the Raiders, I’d bet that it would.

Zach Miller was targeted 11 times.
He’s a Raider, so does anyone really care?  The chances of him repeating last week’s performance is slim to none.

Chris Chambers was targeted 4 times.
Malcolm Floyd saw his targets go from one in week four to five last week.  It’s worth keeping an eye on, as Floyd could easily replace Chambers as the number two receiver and potentially become fantasy viable.

No Titans receiver was targeted more than 4 times.
It was a bad game for Tennessee, attempting only 14 passes and netting negative yardage.  While things can only get better, it’s tough to gauge who is going to be the go to guy in any given week.  That makes it tough to depend on any of them.

Chris Cooley was targeted 9 times.
After not getting the ball thrown his way a single time in week five, it was certainly nice to see him back in the mix.  He’s way too good to expect anything less and should continue to be one of the best tight ends in the league.

What are your thoughts?  Which player who was targeted do you think is worth stashing?  Who do you think is going to continue to be ignored?

Need more help in trying to decide who to start this week, check out our weekly rankings by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our baseball site by clicking here.

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Targets is one of the hot stats this year for fantasy football owners, so let’s take a look at some of the recent trends:

Increase Targets (excluding those with Week 5 bye):

1. Derrick Mason: Baltimore Ravens: +11
2t. Larry Fitzgerald: Arizona Cardinals: +9
2t. DeSean Jackson: Philadelphia Eagles: +9
2t. Brian Westbrook: Philadelphia Eagles: +9
2t. Dustin Keller: New York Jets: +9
2t. Chris Cooley: Washington Redskins: +9

• Michael Sims-Walker didn’t have a bye, but he was suspended for Week 5 and therefore was not included on this list.
• The Eagles pretty much ditched the run, attempting just 14 rushes. That helps explain why both Jackson and Westbrook saw an increase in targets, but don’t expect them to continue at that pace.
• It was nice to see Cooley get back in the mix, after being relegated to mostly blocking duties in week five. You should expect him to continue to see increased looks.
• Seeing Mason at the top of this list should not be a big surprise. He was stifled by the Bengals defense last week, but you knew the Ravens were going to try to get him the ball this time around.

Decrease in Targets:

1. Eddie Royal: Denver Broncos: -11
2. Michael Clayton: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -9
3t. Antonio Bryant: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -8
3t. Kellen Winslow: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -8
5t. Jamaal Charles: Kansas City Chiefs: -6
5t. Todd Heap: Baltimore Ravens: -6
5t. Muhsin Muhammad: Carolina Panthers: -6

• Is it a big surprise to see the three Buccaneers on this list?  Having thrown the ball 50 times last week, they had no place to go but down.
• Eddie Royal may not have had the looks in the passing game, but he surely made an impact returning kicks, taking both a kickoff and a punt to the house.  He still has tremendous value and is useful in all formats.

Top Receivers Targeted:

1. Larry Fitzgerald: Arizona Cardinals: 15
2t. Andre Johnson: Houston Texans: 14
2t. Dwayne Bowe: Kansas City Chiefs: 14
4t. Hines Ward: Pittsburgh Steelers: 12
4t. DeSean Jackson: Philadelphia Eagles: 12
4t. Derrick Mason: Baltimore Ravens: 11
7t. Wes Welker: New England Patriots: 11
7t. Ray Rice: Baltimore Ravens: 11
7t. Lee Evans: Buffalo Bills: 11
7t. Zach Miller: Oakland Raiders: 11
7t. Brian Westbrook: Philadelphia Eagles: 11
7t. Michael Sims-Walker: Jacksonville Jaguars: 11
13t. Mohammad Massaquoi: Cleveland Browns: 10
13t. Randy Moss: New England Patriots: 10
13t. Dustin Keller: New York Jets: 10
13t. Devin Hester: Chicago Bears: 10
13t. Greg Olsen: Chicago Bears: 10
18t. Tony Gonzalez: Atlanta Falcons: 9
18t. Owen Daniels: Houston Texans: 9
18t. Braylon Edwards: New York Jets: 9
18t. Steve Breaston: Arizona Cardinals: 9
18t. Mario Manningham: New York Giants: 9
18t. Andre Caldwell: Cincinnati Bengals: 9
18t. Mike Thomas: Jacksonville Jaguars: 9
18t. Antonio Gates: San Diego Chargers: 9
18t. Chris Cooley: Washington Redskins: 9

• Only five players who were in the Top 20 in week five were in the Top 20 this week (Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, Andre Johnson, Tony Gonzalez & Owen Daniels)
• There were seven tight ends (Gonzalez, Daniels, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, Antonio Gates & Chris Cooley) in the Top 20 this week, compared to five (Gonzalez, Daniels, Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow & Todd Heap) in week five
• Two running backs came in the Top 20 for week seven (Ray Rice & Brian Westbrook) after none were in the Top 20 last week.

Two Games of 10+ Targets over past three weeks:

• Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers
• Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs
• Michael Sims-Walker – Jacksonville Jaguars
• Andre Johnson – Houston Texans
• Mohammad Massaquoi – Cleveland Browns
• Chad Ochocinco – Cincinnati Bengals
• Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens

Three Games of 10+ Targets over past three weeks:

• Wes Welker – New England Patriots

Need more help in trying to decide who to start this week, check out our weekly rankings by clicking here.

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Earlier in the week we took a look some of the trends in players who were targeted by their team’s in Week 5 (clickhere to view).  Now, let’s dive into some of the performances to try and determine who is for real and who may have been a one week wonder.

Eddie Royal was targeted 15 times.
This was the type of performance that fantasy owners have been waiting for.  With just six catches heading into the day, he went off for 10 catches and 90 yards.  He still has yet to find the end zone, but it should certainly come in time.  Along with Brandon Marshall (11 targets), they have the potential to be one of the most electric receiver duos in the league.  If someone in your league gave up on Royal, don’t hesitate with that waiver claim.

Braylon Edwards was targeted 9 times.
Even with less than a week to get into the groove of the offense and work with Mark Sanchez, the Jets were willing to go to him early and often.  Of course, a healthy Jericho Cotchery (targeted just twice) will likely cut into his looks going forward, but still.  If this first game is any indication, he’s in store for a big few weeks in New York.

Mushin Muhammad was targeted 10 times.
He and Steve Smith (6 targets) were the only players on the team who were targeted more than twice.  That tells you the state of the Panthers offense, but also screams that Muhammad could be a viable option for deeper formats if you are in need of a wide receiver.  With Tampa Bay next on the schedule, now is as good a time as ever to take the gamble.

Todd Heap was targeted 9 times.
With Derrick Mason essentially taken out of the game (he was targeted just once), the Ravens were forced to go to check down options.  Enter Heap (7 catches for 41 yards), who has the potential to put up a solid game in any given week (though, you can say that about a lot of tight ends, can’t you).  He was the fifth most targeted tight end this past week, but that’s not likely to happen very often.  He is putting up significantly better statistics than 2008, but he’s still just a bye week replacement and nothing more.

Terrell Owens was targeted 7 times.
That tied for the team lead, so at least they tried to get him the ball and it led to 4 catches for 44 yards.  Unbelievably, that’s the most catches he has had in a game to date.  There have been rumblings that he could actually get traded, but I’m not holding my breath on that.  As the weather worsens, it is going to be tougher for him to put up big numbers in Buffalo, but then again, it can’t get much worse, can it?

Jamal Charles was targeted 7 times.
With Larry Johnson struggling, it is only a matter of time that Charles becomes a bigger focus in the offense.  The fact that he was targeted this many times in the passing game could simply be the sign of things to come.

Chad Ochocinco was targeted 10 times.
That’s 21 targets over the past two weeks, and it surely has helped him deliver.  He had seven catches for 94 yards, the most yards he has had in a game since December 30, 2007 against the Miami Dolphins.  He is proving to be the main target in Cincinnati and appears to once again be a solid play in all formats.

Miles Austin was targeted 15 times.
He’s the talk of waiver wires this week, isn’t he?  I discussed him in my Waiver Worthy column (click here to view), so I won’t go into detail on him again here.  The bottom line is that this very well could have been his coming out party and he could prove to be a viable fantasy receiver the rest of the way.

Dennis Northcutt was targeted 8 times.
He was only a frequent target due to Calvin Johnson’s early exit.  With Johnson’s injury thought to be minor at this point, don’t look for Northcutt to continue to get many looks in the coming weeks.

Austin Collie was targeted 9 times.
It’s amazing how Peyton Manning can spread the ball, isn’t it?  Collie was among four Colts who were targeted 8 or more times this week.  Of course, as I said in the Waiver Worthy column, once Anthony Gonzalez returns to the mix there may not be enough balls to go around to keep Collie as much in the mix.  That’s worth keeping in mind before pouncing on him.

Jerheme Urban was targeted 5 times.
Are there really that many balls to go around?  With so many other weapons, it is amazing that the Arizona Cardinals managed to even attempt to get him the ball five times in this game.  It led to 4 catches for 41 yards, but that’s nothing to get very excited about.  Of course, once the Cardinals decide to start utilizing a ground game, he’ll likely fall into obscurity.

Torry Holt was targeted 11 times.
With Michael Sims-Walker suspended, the throws had to go somewhere.  He made the most of it, with 7 catches for 95 yards.  He certainly has the potential to keep the good times rolling as he gets to take on his former team, the St. Louis Rams, in Week 6.  He’s going to be motivated to produce, so as a bye week alternative, I’d certainly consider grabbing him even if Sims-Walker is back in the mix.  He’s coming off a game with his most catches since December 30, 2007 and most yards since December 2, 2007.

Wes Welker was targeted 15 times.
If there was any question as to who the go to receiver is in New England, just look at the past two weeks.  While Welker was targeted 25 times, Randy Moss was targeted just 9.

Vernon Davis was targeted 12 times.
The signing of Michael Crabtree could influence Davis’ value moving forward, but he has proven over these past few weeks that the talent we have all heard about is finally being shown.  He’s worth using in all formats at this point, coming off a week where he was tied for the most targeted tight end in the league (with Tampa Bay’s Kellen Winslow).

What are your thoughts?  Which player who was targeted do you think is worth stashing?  Who do you think is going to continue to be ignored?

Make sure to check out our baseball site by clicking here.

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

It seems the trendy statistic in the NFL is the number of targets a player receives.  Quite simply, it’s the number of times the ball is thrown to a player.  Obviously it’s important that a player gets thrown to in order to put up numbers, but is it being overhyped?

Here are the top 12 targeted WRs:
Andre Johnson – 52
Nate Burleson – 49
Steve Smith (NYG) – 49
Randy Moss – 48
Reggie Wayne – 48
Chad Ochocinco – 46
T.J. Houshmandzadeh – 45
Steve Smith (CAR) – 43
Santonio Holmes – 41
Calvin Johnson – 41
Wes Welker – 41
Hines Ward – 40

Now here are the top 12 fantasy WRs (non-PPR leagues):
Steve Smith (NYG) – 72.1
Reggie Wayne – 69.9
Andre Johnson – 67.7
Brandon Marshall – 54.8
Chad Ochocinco – 53.0
Nate Burleson – 53.0
Mario Manningham – 52.2
Miles Austin – 51.1
Roddy White – 50.9
Larry Fitzgerald – 50.0
Vincent Jackson – 49.3
Hines Ward – 49.0

Notice that five of the top targeted WRs don’t show up.

The next four highest scoring WRs are DeSean Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Santana Moss, and Percy Harvin, which makes them the 13th-16th ranked fantasy WRs.

Jackson, Sims-Walker, and Harvin don’t rank among the top 30 targeted WRs.    Santana Moss is 22nd.

Steve Smith (CAR), Wes Welker, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin, Justin Gage, Eddie Royal, Mark Clayton, Mushin Muhammad, Bryant Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Louis Murphy, and Patrick Crayton are among the top 30 targeted WRs yet they aren’t among the top 30 fantasy scoring WRs.  That’s a staggering 40%.

While it is a useful statistic, do not put too much stock in it.  The most important statistic for a WR is TDs.  It is no coincidence that the top ten scoring WRs all have 3 or 4 TDs so far.  Obviously a close second is yardage.  That’s where the scoring comes from.

PPR leagues add a point per reception, but I am vehemently opposed to PPR leagues.  It overvalues possession receivers and short-changes deep threats.  For the life of me I can not figure out why someone would agree that 3 catches for 15 yards should be more valuable than 1 30 yard catch.  That’s a different discussion for a different day.

The bottom line is use targets as a guide, but don’t ignore the age old indicators of fantasy production.