LestersLegends.com

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It was a thrilling 12th week of NFL action. Here are my Week 13 picks.
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Week 12 Results:  13-3
Week 12 Lock Picks:  2-0
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Previous Lock to Win Picks: NE (W), PIT (W), SD (W), GB (W), NYG (L), NYJ (W), DAL (W), SF (W), ATL (W), BAL (L), CHI (W), CIN (W)
Previous Lock to Lose Picks: MIN (W), CAR (W), INDY (W), SEA (W), NYJ (W), STL (W), JAX (L), MIA (W) CLE (W), OAK (L), KC (W), PHI (W)
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Regular Season Total: 122-54 (.693)
Regular Season Lock Picks: 20-4 (.833)
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Week 13 Locks:
Lock to Win:  Denver Broncos
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as above):  New York Giants
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Week 13 Picks:
Seattle over Philadelphia
Tennessee over Buffalo
Chicago over Kansas City
Oakland over Miami
Denver over Minnesota  (Winner Lock)
New England over Indianapolis
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Carolina over Tampa Bay
New York Jets over Washington
Atlanta over Houston
Baltimore over Cleveland
Green Bay over New York Giants  (Loser Lock)
Dallas over Arizona
San Francisco over St. Louis
New Orleans over Detroit
San Diego over Jacksonville

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These are heads-up picks. We’re doing picks with the spread on Yahoo. If you want to get in on the action, leave me a message in the comment section with your e-mail or send one to me at ryan@lesterslegends.com.
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There were some unusual heroes on Sunday. There always are. Let’s take a look at them and see if they are worthy of your fantasy rosters.
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Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts:  As I said in my Week 12 Sleepers suggestions Brown has been one of the few bright spots on the Colts this year. He had 80 yards rushing, a rushing TD, and 17 yards receiving. He’s been averaging over 8 fantasy points per game in his past six.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
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Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins:  Perhaps Shanahan will finally realize that Helu is his best back. He ran for 108 yards and a touchdown while adding seven catches for 54 yards. As long as he can win Shanahan over he should be a solid add.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
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Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns:  If Hillis was dropped in your league you may want to pick him up. He ran for 65 yards and caught two passes, though he lost four yards on them. He has some tough games ahead but should see plenty of carries if he can stay healthy.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
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Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit Lions:  Kevin Smith’s injured ankle could force him to miss this week’s game. Morris had 39 yards running and 81 receiving. If he was dropped in your league and you are in need of a RB, Morris is worth a look.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
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Marcel Reece, RB, Oakland Raiders:  Reece caught five passes (seven targets) for 92 yards. He could be more active with all of Oakland’s injuries, but isn’t a reliable fantasy option.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.
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Jason Avant, WR, Philadelphia Eagles:  Avant caught eight passes (14 targets) for 110 yards and a TD. Maclin didn’t play, the Eagles were playing from behind, and the Patriots have a horrible pass defense. The odds won’t likely be stacked in Avant’s favor like that again.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.
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Harry Douglas, WR, Atlanta Falcons:  He only had 45 yards but he scored. Julio Jones played but wasn’t targeted. Douglas remains the fourth or fifth option after Turner, Roddy, Gonzo, and sometime Julio but Atlanta’s offense is potent enough that he can be useful.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
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Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago Bears:  Knox caught four passes (ten targets) for 145 yards and a touchdown. He’s scored in back-to-back weeks, but is a risk with Caleb Hanie under center.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.
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Damian Williams, WR, Tennessee Titans:  Williams caught three passes (four targets) for 33 yards and a TD. He was a bust last week, but has been solid four of the past five games. He’s a decent depth option, though if Locker gets a shot he seemed to favor Nate Washington.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
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Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets:  Keller caught four passes (eight targets) for 61 yards and two scores. He’s been a decent option this year and is a low-end TE1 going forward.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.
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Also check out:

• Week 13 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy Football K Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy Football DEF Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy Football Sit/Start Advice
• Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers
• Week 13 NFL Picks

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Last Week’s Results:  10-6  (GB, JAX, TEN, PHI,DEN,  INDY) let him down)
Season Results:  108-68 (.614)
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My six-year old son wants to see how he does over the course of the season picking the NFL winners. Here are his Week 13 picks. Click here to see my picks.
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Philadelphia over Houston
New Orleans over Cincinnati
Chicago over Detroit
Green Bay over San Francisco
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Denver over Kansas City
Miami over Cleveland
Minnesota over Buffalo
New York Giants over Washington
San Diego over Oakland
Indianapolis over Dallas
Arizona over St. Louis
Carolina over Seattle
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
New England over New York Jets

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Week 12 Results:  10-6   (GB, OAK, PHI, DEN, INDY, ARI let me down)
Week 12 Lock Picks:  2-0

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Previous Lock to Win Picks:  SF (L), GB (W),  NE (W), NO (W), ATL (W), PIT (W), BAL (W), KC (W), MIN (W), NYG (L), TEN (L), NYJ (W)
Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  DET (W), ARI (W), CLE (W), JAX (L), CAR (W), STL (L), CIN (W), HOU (W), DAL (W), CIN (W), SEA (W), BUF (W)

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Regular Season Lock Picks:  19-5 (.792)
Regular Season Total:  105-71 (.597)

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Week 13 Locks:
Lock to Win:  San Diego Chargers
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as above):  Denver Broncos
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Week 13 Picks:
Philadelphia over Houston
New Orleans over Cincinnati
Detroit over Chicago
Green Bay over San Francisco
Jacksonville over Tennessee
Kansas City over Denver (Loser Lock)
Cleveland over Miami
Minnesota over Buffalo
New York Giants over Washington
San Diego over Oakland (Winner Lock)
Indianapolis over Dallas
St. Louis over Arizona
Seattle over Carolina
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
New England over New York Jets
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These are heads-up picks. We’re doing picks with the spread on Yahoo. If you want to get in on the action, leave me a message in the comment section with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.

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Also check out:

• Sneaky Week 13 Fantasy Football Pick-ups
• Week 13 Get ‘em or Don’t Sweat ‘em Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 13 Fantasy QB Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy RB Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy WR Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy TE Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy K Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy DEF Rankings
• Week 13 Fantasy IDP Rankings
• Week 13 IDP Fantasy Rankings
• Week 13 Start/Sit Advice
• Week 13 Fantasy Sleepers

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Rodgers 29.9
Brees Loser 39.45 (38.45 actual)
Brady Winner 13.05 (12.05 actual)
Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson: Loser Ricky 17.5, CJ 24.6
Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai: Loser Snelling 3.3, Addai 8.2
Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker: Tie Nate 4.6, Sims-Walker 4.6
Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR): Winner Crab 5.4, Smith 0.5
SS: Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell: Loser Boller20.7, Campbell 25.75

Regular Picks: 2-3-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 2-4-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 27-30-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-10
Overall: 31-40-1

Week 13 Picks

Quarterback

Philip Rivers over Drew Brees
Brees is coming off a monster win against the Patriots in which he lit them up like a Christmas tree. He’s due for a bit of a letdown as he takes on Washington on the road. The Skins have actually been solid against the pass, although they did play some of the worst QBs earlier in the year. Rivers should have an absolute field day against the Brownies.

Running Backs

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
Forte should be able to put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air against the lowly Saints. Meanwhile Ricky has to face New England following an embarrassing loss. They focus on shutting Ricky down as Henne can’t beat them.

Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant
The Panthers best bet for winning is to pound to ball repeatedly with both J-Stew and D-Will. They should be able to do that with ease against Tampa Bay at home. Meanwhile, Ryan Grant faces Baltimore’s tough run defense.

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald
This match-up has concussion written all over it. Maclin should slide into the #1 role for the Eagles with DeSean Jackson likely to miss the game with a concussion. He should torch Atlanta. Meanwhile Fitz will likely have to deal with Matt Leinart again as Kurt Warner recovers from his concussion.

Austin Collie over Chris Chambers
The last time the Colts played Tennessee scored a pair of TDs. It’s really pick-your-poison will all the weapons at Peyton Manning’s disposal. The Titans will key in on Wayne, Clark, and Addai, which should allow Collie to make some plays. Chambers has been great since coming over to Kansas City from San Diego. This week he faces Champ Bailey and their tough pass defense.

SUPER STRETCH

Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens
David Garrard is so much better playing at home. With this week’s game in Jacksonville Thomas has a chance to put up real solid numbers. Meanwhile T.O. will have to lock horns with Darrelle Revis and the Jets. He’s been in the business of shutting down #1 WRs, and this week should be no different.

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard has a decent match-up this week against Houston’s middle-of-the road passing defense. That’s not what makes him a decent play this weekend. He truly is a different player at home, where the Jags happen to play this week.

Home:  5 games, 283.8 yards per game, 7 TD, 4 INTs
Away:  6 games, 198.5 ypg, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Smith has back-to-back multiple TD games for the Niners. With Seattle on deck, who is 25th in passing yards allowed (238.1)and 27th in passing TDs allowed (20), Smith is a good bet to make it three straight.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
I’m sure by now his fantasy owners have lost faith in Cutler, but feel free to trot him out there against the Rams. St. Louis is 22nd against the pass with 225.6 yards per game. Now if Cutler can just remember which team to throw to.

Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills
Jackson was heavily utilized last week by Interim Coach Perry Fewell, and appears to have replaced Marshawn Lynch as the team’s feature back. He faces the Jets’ 13th ranked run defense, which has been more susceptible of late.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
Knowshon should build upon his Thanksgiving performance we he faces the Chiefs’ 27th ranked run defense (134.5 ypg). Moreno has averaged 88.3 rushing yards the past three weeks.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
J-Stew should bounce back from a couple of down weeks as he faces Tampa Bay’s 30th ranked run defense (160.4 ypg). The last time the Panthers faced the Bucs, he ran for 110 yards and a score.

Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant, WRs, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s unlike that DeSean Jackson’s concussion will allow him to play this weekend, which elevates both Maclin and Avant’s fantasy values. Aside from the extra looks they should receive, they face Atlanta’s 27th ranked pass defense (252.6 ypg).

Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, WRs, Indianapolis Colts
Peyton continues to spread the ball around, and both of these WRs have to potential to produce against theTitan’s 31st ranked pass defense (266.7). Garcon has been the better play of late, but Collie had a pair of TDs the last time they squared off with Tennessee.

Dante Rosario, TE, Carolina Panthers
Dante has caught four passes in each of his past two games, and is a good sneaky play this week as he faces Tampa Bay.

Rob Bironas, K, Tennessee Titans
Bironas faces the Indianapolis Colts who have allowed two Field Goals a game this season. Bironas has hit 1.6 FGs per game with five straight multiple FG games.

Olinod Mare, K, Seattle Seahawks
Mare faces San Francisco, who is tied for 26th with 20 FGs allowed. Mare has made 19 FGs on the year. They play in Seattle where he averaged 2.2 FGs per game.

Buffalo Defense/Special Teams
The Bills play the Jets at home. The last time they faced Mark Sanchez, he threw five Interceptions. While I don’t expect him to reach that mark, a multiple INT game isn’t out of the question.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams
Da Bears get to stop the bleeding by facing the Rams at home. Multiple Sacks and turnovers should be in order.

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Warner makes the list again this week, but it’s more a reflection on who he’s facing than anything. I’m confident he’ll be able to play this week, but he could have a hard time finishing the game against Minnesota’s front four. The Vikings lead the league with 40 Sacks, and it’s hard to have faith in a QB coming off a concussion against a defense that brings so much pressure.

I’m also iffy on Ben Roethlisberger coming off his concussion and facing the Raiders, who are tied for fourth with just ten passing TDs allowed.

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers
This is not a good week to use Ryan Grant. He faces Baltimore’s 6th ranked rushing defense (97.6 yards/gm). They are also tenth with just seven rushing TDs allowed. Grant plays at home, where he has actually been less productive.

Home:  87.5 total yards per game (72.5 rushing, 15.0 receiving)
Away:  111.0 total yards per games (91.0 rushing, 20.0 receiving)

Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants
Jacobs faces Dallas’ 9th ranked rushing defense (102.7 yards/gm). They allowed just five rushing TDs on the season. In his last four games against Dallas he has scored just one TD with an average of 84 total yards.  Not exactly numbers you can bank on in this crucial juncture of the season.

Terrell Owens, WR, Buffalo Bills
T.O. is on fire, but squares up against Darrelle Revis. The Jets are #2 against the pass with 175.7 yards allowed per game, and tops with just seven passing TDs allowed.  When the Bills faced the Jets in Week 6, T.O. was held to 13 yards on three catches.

Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Chambers has been a godsend for the Chiefs, especially with Dwayne Bowe serving his four-game suspension. This week though, he faces Champ Bailey and Denver’s 5th ranked passing defense (185 yards/gm). They are also tied for fourth with ten passing TDs allowed.