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Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the match-ups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

First off, avoid Colts starters like the plague. I’m sure you gathered that already from last week. San Diego has nothing to play for, so be leery of using their starters.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Romo has seemed to put the December Blues behind him, but with the division up for grabs, you can’t help but remember the egg he laid in Philadelphia to end last season. He’s playing at home this time, which should help, but keep in mind he averages just 237.9 passing yards at home. Plus, he has just one TD pass in each of his past two games.

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
Houston jumped out on Miami last week, which took Ricky out of the game. Pittsburgh will attempt to do the same this week. They also have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league allowing just 89.3 yards per game and six rushing TDs.

Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, RBs, New York Giants
The Giants have pretty much mailed it in after their embarrassing loss to Carolina. Jacobs won’t likely play as he’s banged up and the Giants are out of it. Bradshaw will get the bulk of the work, but faces a Vikings team sporting a stingy run defense and still jockeying for playoff positioning.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Ocho becomes Darrelle Revis’ latest victim. If I were him, I wouldn’t waste my time coming up with a TD celebration for this week.

Dwyane Bowe & Chris Chambers, WRs, Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are reeling, but they are still tough against the pass allowing just 201.0 yards per game. Matt Cassel has struggled on the road averaging just 185.3 yards and 1 TD.

Week 16 Results:  10-6   (OAK, MIA, NO, NYG, INDY, MN let me down)
Lock Picks:  2-0

Previous Lock to Win Picks:  NO (W), WAS (W), BAL (W), INDY (W), PHI (W), PITT (W), NE (W), SD (W), ATL (W), MINN (W), ARI (W), DAL (W), CIN (W), TENN (W), HOU (W), GB (W)

Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  OAK (W), CIN (L), STL (W), KC (W), DET (W), TB (W), WAS (W), CAR (L), HOU (W), CLE (W), BUF (W), CHI (W), ARI (L), DAL (W), SF (W), JAX (W)

Regular Season Lock Picks:  29-3 (.906)
Regular Season Total:  166-74 (.692)

Week 17 NFL Picks:

Lock to Win:  San Francisco 49ers
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as Winner Lock):  Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo Bills over Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars over Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (Winner Lock)
Pittsburgh Steelers over Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings over New York Giants
New York Jets over Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots over Houston Texans
Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens over Oakland Raiders
Green Bay Packers over Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers over Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans over Seattle Seahawks (Loser Lock)

These are heads-up picks. We’re doing picks with the spread on Yahoo. If you want to get in on the action, leave me a message in the comment with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.

Written by CK0712
(OUT — Definitely will not play; DNP — Did not practice; LIMITED — Limited participation in practice; FULL — Full participation in practice):

SATURDAY
ATLANTA FALCONS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
ATLANTA:  QUESTIONABLE: DE John Abraham (thigh, shoulder), DE Jamaal Anderson (ankle), T Sam Baker (hip, back), WR Harry Douglas (head), DT Grady Jackson (knee), LB Curtis Lofton (knee), S Lawyer Milloy (back), RB Ovie Mughelli (knee), T Todd Weiner (knee).

ARIZONA: QUESTIONABLE: WR Anquan Boldin (shoulder), DE Travis LaBoy (ankle), TE Leonard Pope (knee), DT Gabe Watson (knee). PROBABLE: S Aaron Francisco (ribs), TE Stephen Spach (ankle), LB Pago Togafau (knee), S Matt Ware (calf), S Adrian Wilson (toe).

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
INDIANAPOLIS: OUT: LB Gary Brackett (fibula). QUESTIONABLE: DT Eric Foster (finger), WR Pierre Garcon (knee), G Mike Pollak (ankle), CB Keiwan Ratliff (groin), G Jamey Richard (ankle).

SAN DIEGO: DOUBTFUL: LB Brandon Siler (foot). QUESTIONABLE: TE Antonio Gates (ankle), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (groin).

SUNDAY
BALTIMORE RAVENS at MIAMI DOLPHINS 
BALTIMORE: QUESTIONABLE: DT Justin Bannan (foot), LB Antwan Barnes (shoulder), G Chris Chester (back), WR Mark Clayton (knee), TE Todd Heap (back), LB Jarret Johnson (calf), WR Derrick Mason (shoulder), S Ed Reed (thigh), RB Ray Rice (calf), CB Samari Rolle (ankle, foot), K Matt Stover (right ankle), CB Fabian Washington (toe). PROBABLE: S Tom Zbikowski (thigh).

MIAMI: QUESTIONABLE: TE David Martin (head, neck), DE Randy Starks (ankle).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at MINNESOTA VIKINGS PHILADELPHIA: OUT: DE Victor Abiamiri (foot), G Shawn Andrews (back). QUESTIONABLE: T Jon Runyan (knee), CB Asante Samuel (hip), TE L.J. Smith (shoulder), RB Brian Westbrook (knee, ankle). PROBABLE: WR Hank Baskett (knee), LB Stewart Bradley (rib, groin), WR Kevin Curtis (calf), S Brian Dawkins (back), G Todd Herremans (shoulder, ankle).

MINNESOTA: OUT: DE Ray Edwards (knee). QUESTIONABLE: DT Pat Williams (shoulder). PROBABLE: WR Bernard Berrian (ankle), T Artis Hicks (elbow).

Written by CK0712
(OUT — Definitely will not play; DNP — Did not practice; LIMITED — Limited participation in practice; FULL — Full participation in practice):

CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -- CAROLINA: DNP: DT Ma’ake Kemoeatu (ankle), TE Jeff King (knee), DT Damione Lewis (shoulder), WR Kenneth Moore (hamstring), WR Muhsin Muhammad (foot). FULL: DE Hilee Taylor (calf). NEW ORLEANS: DNP: TE Jeremy Shockey (ankle), RB Pierre Thomas (wrist, back). LIMITED: DT Kendrick Clancy (hamstring). FULL: T Jammal Brown (ankle), CB Usama Young (ankle).

CHICAGO BEARS at HOUSTON TEXANS – CHICAGO: DNP: S Mike Brown (calf), CB Marcus Hamilton (ankle), DT Tommie Harris (not injury related), LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (ankle), RB Kevin Jones (hamstring), CB Charles Tillman (ankle). LIMITED: RB Jason McKie (quadricep). HOUSTON: DNP: LB Xavier Adibi (groin), S Nick Ferguson (knee). LIMITED: DE Anthony Weaver (knee).

CLEVELAND BROWNS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS — CLEVELAND: DNP: TE Darnell Dinkins (ribs), QB Ken Dorsey (concussion), G Eric Steinbach (back), LB Leon Williams (knee), TE Kellen Winslow (ankle), P Dave Zastudil (right knee). LIMITED: RB Charles Ali (not injury related), WR Joshua Cribbs (ankle), DT Shaun Rogers (ankle), RB Lawrence Vickers (back). FULL: WR Donte’ Stallworth (neck). PITTSBURGH: OUT: S Ryan Clark (shoulder). DNP: LB James Harrison (hip), RB Willie Parker (not injury related), DE Aaron Smith (not injury related), CB Deshea Townsend (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related). FULL: QB Ben Roethlisberger (ankle).

DALLAS COWBOYS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – DALLAS: DNP: G Montrae Holland (ankle), QB Tony Romo (illness), TE Jason Witten (ankle). LIMITED: RB Marion Barber (toe), LB Bobby Carpenter (knee, calf), S Keith Davis (knee, neck), S Ken Hamlin (foot). FULL: CB Alan Ball (ankle), WR Isaiah Stanback (shoulder), WR Roy Williams (foot). PHILADELPHIA: OUT: DE Victor Abiamiri (foot), G Shawn Andrews (back). DNP: LB Stewart Bradley (rib, groin), G Todd Herremans (shoulder, ankle), T Jon Runyan (knee, ankle), TE L.J. Smith (shoulder), RB Brian Westbrook (knee, ankle). LIMITED: WR Hank Baskett (knee). FULL: WR Kevin Curtis (calf), S Brian Dawkins (back), S Quintin Demps (quadricep), WR Greg Lewis (knee).

DETROIT LIONS at GREEN BAY PACKERS — DETROIT: DNP: QB Daunte Culpepper (right shoulder), DT Chuck Darby (calf), CB Travis Fisher (concussion), DE Corey Smith (hamstring), DE Dewayne White (calf). LIMITED: WR Calvin Johnson (knee), LB Ernie Sims (knee), RB Kevin Smith (ankle). GREEN BAY: OUT: T Breno Giacomini (ankle). DNP: WR Donald Driver (knee), CB Al Harris (illness). LIMITED: RB Brandon Jackson (wrist), WR Greg Jennings (concussion), CB Joe Porter (concussion), G Jason Spitz (knee), CB Charles Woodson (toe). FULL: T Chad Clifton (knees), RB Korey Hall (knee), DT Justin Harrell (hip), LB Spencer Havner (ankle), DT Johnny Jolly (ankle), S Aaron Rouse (ankle).

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at BALTIMORE RAVENS – JACKSONVILLE: DNP: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee). BALTIMORE: OUT: LB Antwan Barnes (chest), WR Marcus Maxwell (hip). DNP: T Willie Anderson (foot), LB Jarret Johnson (calf), WR Derrick Mason (neck, shoulder), DE Trevor Pryce (illness), S Ed Reed (thigh), CB Samari Rolle (ankle), T Adam Terry (knee), CB Fabian Washington (toe). LIMITED: WR Yamon Figurs (head), RB Ray Rice (calf).

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at CINCINNATI BENGALS — KANSAS CITY: LIMITED: CB Maurice Leggett (shoulder). FULL: DE Alfonso Boone (thigh). CINCINNATI: OUT: T Stacy Andrews (knee). DNP: WR Chad Johnson (hamstring), T Levi Jones (hamstring), QB Carson Palmer (right elbow), DT Pat Sims (biceps). LIMITED: RB Cedric Benson (ankle), CB Jamar Fletcher (back), RB Kenny Watson (hamstring).

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS – MIAMI: DNP: CB Will Allen (groin), LB Channing Crowder (knee). NEW YORK: LIMITED: WR Laveranues Coles (thigh), T Wayne Hunter (shoulder), LB Bryan Thomas (shoulder). FULL: LB Eric Barton (knee), WR Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder), LB David Harris (groin), DE Kris Jenkins (hip).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at BUFFALO BILLS — NEW ENGLAND: DNP: LB Tedy Bruschi (knee), T Matt Light (shoulder), S James Sanders (abdomen), DE Richard Seymour (back), S Raymond Ventrone (jaw), G Billy Yates (hand). LIMITED: LB Gary Guyton (ankle), CB Ellis Hobbs (shoulder), T Mark LeVoir (ankle), LB Vince Redd (ankle), CB Lewis Sanders (shoulder), DE Ty Warren (groin). FULL: DT Vince Wilfork (shoulder). BUFFALO: DNP: WR James Hardy (knee), LB Teddy Lehman (groin), RB Marshawn Lynch (shoulder), LB Kawika Mitchell (knee), WR Roscoe Parrish (knee), T Jason Peters (knee). LIMITED: CB Jabari Greer (knee)

NEW YORK GIANTS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS — NEW YORK: DNP: TE Kevin Boss (ankle, concussion), DT Barry Cofield (knee), CB Aaron Ross (concussion), LB Gerris Wilkinson (knee). LIMITED: RB Brandon Jacobs (knee), T Kareem McKenzie (back), DT Fred Robbins (shoulder), DE Justin Tuck (lower leg). MINNESOTA: DNP: WR Bernard Berrian (ankle), DT Pat Williams (shoulder). LIMITED: DE Jared Allen (knee), QB Gus Frerotte (back), T Artis Hicks (elbow), RB Maurice Hicks (back), WR Darius Reynaud (foot), S Darren Sharper (knee).

OAKLAND RAIDERS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS — OAKLAND: Practice not complete. TAMPA BAY: DNP: LB Derrick Brooks (hamstring). FULL: DE Gaines Adams (ankle), QB Jeff Garcia (calf), DT Jovan Haye (knee), DT Chris Hovan (knee), RB Clifton Smith (shoulder), DE Greg White (shoulder).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS — SEATTLE: Practice not complete. ARIZONA: DNP: WR Anquan Boldin (shoulder), DE Travis LaBoy (ankle), TE Stephen Spach (ankle), S Matt Ware (calf). LIMITED: RB J.J. Arrington (knee), S Aaron Francisco (ribs), DE Kenny Iwebema (concussion), S Adrian Wilson (toe). FULL: CB Ralph Brown (ribs), CB Roderick Hood (knee), G Deuce Lutui (knee), WR Sean Morey (shoulder).

ST. LOUIS RAMS at ATLANTA FALCONS – ST. LOUIS: DNP: G Jacob Bell (hamstring), CB Fakhir Brown (ankle), TE Daniel Fells (knee), DT La’Roi Glover (knee). LIMITED: CB Eric Bassey (hamstring), RB Steven Jackson (hamstring), TE Joe Klopfenstein (knee), DE Leonard Little (hamstring), WR Dane Looker (hip). ATLANTA: DNP: DE John Abraham (thigh, shoulder), DE Jamaal Anderson (ankle), WR Harry Douglas (toe, shoulder), WR Michael Jenkins (shoulder), S Lawyer Milloy (back), T Todd Weiner (knee). LIMITED: T Sam Baker (hip, back), WR Brian Finneran (calf), DT Grady Jackson (knee), LB Coy Wire (knee).

TENNESSEE TITANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS — TENNESSEE: OUT: DT Albert Haynesworth (knee), DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin). DNP: DE Dave Ball (back), CB Nicholas Harper (groin), C Kevin Mawae (elbow), LB David Thornton (hip), RB LenDale White (illness). INDIANAPOLIS: DNP: LB Gary Brackett (fibula), CB Melvin Bullitt (shoulder), DT Keyunta Dawson (not injury related), DE Dwight Freeney (not injury related), LB Freddy Keiaho (hamstring), DE Robert Mathis (not injury related), RB Dominic Rhodes (chest), S Bob Sanders (knee), RB Chad Simpson (ankle).

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS — WASHINGTON: DNP: LB London Fletcher (foot), G Pete Kendall (knee), K Shaun Suisham (not injury related). LIMITED: T Jon Jansen (knee). FULL: DT Kedric Golston (ankle). SAN FRANCISCO: Practice not complete.

DENVER BRONCOS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS — DENVER: DNP: T Ryan Clady (ankle), TE Daniel Graham (ankle). LIMITED: CB Josh Bell (knee), LB Niko Koutouvides (back), G Chris Kuper (hand), LB Spencer Larsen (groin), S Marquand Manuel (ankle), TE Chad Mustard (knee), WR Brandon Stokley (foot). FULL: CB Champ Bailey (groin), T Ryan Harris (back), WR Brandon Marshall (hip), S Marlon McCree (ankle), CB Karl Paymah (groin), WR Eddie Royal (thumb), LB D.J. Williams (knee, shoulder). SAN DIEGO: DNP: DE Igor Olshansky (illness), LB Brandon Siler (foot), DT Jamal Williams (foot). LIMITED: WR Malcom Floyd (lung). FULL: LB Anthony Waters (hamstring

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Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Seneca Wallace - Seneca had a decent showing against the Jets in the snow.  The weather and Arizona’s Defense are much more fantasy friendly.  Wallace and Company will try to send Holmgren off a Winner.
Stat Line:  24 of 43 for 250 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 carries for 14 yards

RB
Ryan Grant - Detroit makes everybody look a little better than they are.  Heck, New Orleans had four first half rushing TDs against them.  Ryan Grant should have a nice game against them as Detroit finishes off their imperfect season.
Stat Line:  19 carries for 106 yards, 3 catches for 23 yards

Larry Johnson - LJ continues a strong second half surge.  He should pile up the yards against Cincinnati in what could be his last game in a Chiefs uniform.
Stat Line:  10 carries for 18 yards

WR
Steve Breaston - Arizona will use Seattle as a chance to right their wrongs heading into the playoffs.  If Boldin isn’t 100% he won’t go.  Breaston needs 85 yards for a 1000 yard season.  I can see him reaching that mark.
Stat Line:  5 catches for 91 yards, TD

Santonio Holmes - Holmes has three TDs in his last four games.  Against Cleveland there is a good chance he scores again.
Stat Line:  3 catches for 31 yards

TE
Gijon Robinson - With Indy already in, Gijon could get some more work in order to keep Dallas Clark healthy for the playoffs.  He’s had eleven catches for 128 yards in his past three weeks.
Stat Line:  Did not catch a pass.

K
Mason Crosby - In your fantasy Super Bowl, why not go with a guy who is facing the Lions.  He should be good for 4+ PATs and a FG.
Stat Line:  1 FG, 4 PATs

DEF
Green Bay - See above.
Stat Line:  1 Sack, 2 INTs

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Brett Favre (9.35) beat Kurt Warner (1.5) WHICH I WON.
Pierre Thomas (16.3) beat Michael Turner (13.0) WHICH I WON. 
LaDainian Tomlinson (11.0) beat Marshawn Lynch (9.4) WHICH I LOST.
Wes Welker (12.8) beat Andre Johnson (1.9) WHICH I WON. 
Terrell Owens (12.3) beat Anthony Gonzalez (3.8) WHICH I LOST. 
  
Super Stetch:  Shaun Hill (23.3) beat Tony Romo  (20.8) WHICH I WON.   

Regular Picks:  3-2 
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0   
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks:  49-31 (.613)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-7 (.533)
Overall:  57-38 (.600)

Quarterback
   
Tyler Thigpen over Tony Romo
Thigpen gets a pressure-free finish against Cincinnati.  Even if the weather is rough in Cincy, his running ability should make up for it.  This is basically a playoff game for Romo as he needs to win.  We all know how Romo performs in the playoffs.

Running Backs
   
LaDainian Tomlinson over Thomas Jones
LT has been a disappointment by his standards.  Thomas Jones has been one of the biggest surprises this year.  In Week 17 though, LT will deliver the goods vs. Denver while Jones will have his work cut out for him vs. Miami.

 
Cedric Benson over Ronnie Brown
Benson exploded for 171 yards last week against Cleveland.  He won’t match that production, but he should put up solid numbers against Kansas City.  Ronnie Brown faces a desperate Jet team.  I’m taking Benson is this battle of Class of 2005 first round backs.

Wide Receiver
  
Eddie Royal over Antonio Bryant
Royal faces San Diego in a battle for the AFC West.  I expect a lot of fireworks in this one with very little Defense.  Bryant faces the Raiders and shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha.   

 
Vincent Jackson over  Steve Smith
Vincent Jackson should factor in the San Diego-Denver shootout as well.  His size makes him a tough cover.  Smith has a nice matchup against the Saints, but I think Carolina will rely more on their ground game as usual.  

SUPER STRETCH 
 
Vince Young & David Carr over Jason Campbell
I figure both VY and Carr play about a half of football each.  I think in their scrub time they can muster up more points than Campbell vs. the 49ers.

These picks are from 2008.
Click here for 2009 Week 17 Picks.
Click here to check out my fantasy football info.

Last Week:  7-9 (DAL, PITT, STL, DEN, HOU, NYJ, MINN, PHI, CAR) let me down
Lock Picks:  2-0

Previous Lock to Win Picks:  NE (W), NYG (W),  BUF (W), SD (W), DAL (W), WAS (L), HOU (W), NYJ (W), JAX (L), CAR (W), PHI (Tie), CHI (W), TENN (W), MN (W), INDY (W), NO (W)

Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  STL (W), BUF (L), CIN (W), KC (L), MIA (L), DET (W), SEA (W), NO (L), OAK (W), CHI (W), HOU (W), SD (W), PHI (L), CLE (W), SF (W), JAX (W)

Overall Lock Picks: 23-8-1 (.734)
Season Total:  147-92-1 (.615)

Week 17 NFL Picks
Lock to Win:  Atlanta
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as above):  Tennessee

Atlanta over St. Louis (Winner Lock)
New England over Buffalo
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Green Bay over Detroit
Indianapolis over Tennessee (Loser Lock)
Minnesota over New York Giants
Carolina over New Orleans
New York Jets over Miami
Philadelphia over Dallas
Pittsburgh over Cleveland
Tampa Bay over Oakland
Baltimore over Jacksonville
Houston over Chicago
Arizona over Seattle
Washington over San Francisco
San Diego over Denver

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Quarterback
Eli Manning/Kerry Collins - Both the Giants and the Titans wrapped up the #1 seeds in their respective Conferences.  Don’t be surprised to see David Carr and Vince Young for at least a half this week. 

Running Backs
Maurice Jones-Drew - The Jags finish their disappointing season against the Ravens in Baltimore.  Baltimore is in the hunt for the last Wild Card slot.  They are going to bring their A game.  Times could be tough for the little big man.

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch goes up against the Patriots, whose Offense is firing on all cylinders with 96 points in their last two games.  Not only could Buffalo be playing from behind, but Lynch will lose meaningful touches to Fred Jackson.

Wide Receiver
Antonio Bryant - Last week Nnamdi Asomugha held Andre Johnson to two catches for 19 yards.  This week he’ll lock up with Antonio Bryant.  Not many have succeeded against him this year.  Bryant’s been on fire, but I’d look elsewhere this week.

Terrell Owens - The Eagles will have T.O. in their sights as they try to eliminate Dallas from the playoff hunt.  The extended forecast is calling for showers in Philly next week so it could be a sloppy game.

Justin Gage - See Kerry Collins above.