Last Week Results:  11-5 (SF, NO, WAS, SD, GB let him down)
Season Results:  32-16 (.667)
My six-year old son wants to see how he does over the course of the season picking the NFL winners. Here are his Week 4 picks. Click here to see my picks.
San Francisco over Atlanta
New York Jets over Buffalo
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Green Bay over Detroit
Tennessee over Denver
Seattle over St. Louis
New Orleans over Carolina (Winner Lock)
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Houston over Oakland
Indianapolis over Jacksonville (Loser Lock)
Philadelphia over Washington
San Diego over Arizona
New York Giants over Chicago
New England over Miami

 | Posted by | Categories: NFL, NFL Picks | Tagged: NFL, NFL Picks, NFL Week 4, NFL Week 4 Picks |

2010 NFL Picks – Week 4

29 September 2010

Here’s my Week 4 picks. Click here if you want to see my son’s picks. He’s been somewhat of a savant in the first couple of weeks.

Week 3 Results:   10-6 (SF, NO, NYG, HOU, WAS, GB let me down)
Week 3 Lock Picks
:  2-0

Previous Lock to Win Picks:  SF (L), GB (W),  NE (W)
Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  DET (W), ARI (W), CLE (W)

Regular Season Lock Picks:  5-1 (.833)
Regular Season Total:  28-20 (.583)

Week 4 Locks
Lock to Win:  New Orleans Saints
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as above):  Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 4 Picks:

Atlanta over San Francisco
New York Jets over Buffalo
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Green Bay over Detroit
Tennessee over Denver
Seattle over St. Louis
New Orleans over Carolina (Winner Lock)
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Houston over Oakland
Indianapolis over Jacksonville (Loser Lock)
Philadelphia over Washington
San Diego over Arizona
New York Giants over Chicago
New England over Miami

These are heads-up picks. We’re doing picks with the spread on Yahoo. If you want to get in on the action, leave me a message in the comment section with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.

 | Posted by | Categories: NFL, NFL Picks | Tagged: NFL, NFL Picks, NFL Week 4, NFL Week 4 Picks |

Fantasy Football Forum
How did Week 4 go for you?

I’m in five leagues so I’ll recap each one.

KFFL Analysis League - I rolled again scoring the most points in the league.  Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne were a great combo.  Kevin Smith gutted it out and scored 2 TDs.  SF D was nasty.  Antonio Gates just piled on.
Record:  3-1

Fantasy Football Search League –  I picked up a Win here as well.  Carson Palmer, Kevin Smith, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, and SF D led the way for me.  Antonio Gates, Mewelde Moore, Steve Slaton, Derrick Mason, and Cincy D were tough opponents.  Brett Favre nearly gave me a loss, but Ryan Grant did just enough to preserve the victory.  We were by far the two highest scoring teams this week.  It sucks that one of us had to lose.
Record:  3-1

Rotoprofessor Challenge - I dominated here also putting up the highest score.  Jay Cutler, Reggie Wayne, Ronnie Brown, and SF D were my top scorers.  Steve Smith was a tough foe.
Record:  3-1

My Keeper League – I won in this league as well.  Carson Palmer and Ocho made a good combo for me.  Pierre Thomas and Brandon Marshall were solid.  Cincy D was a tough foe.
Record:  3-1

Fantasy Trifecta League – Then there’s this league.  Palmer, Ocho, and Wayne, and Moreno led the way.  Manning, D. Mason, Forte, Heath Miller, and Addai took me down.
Record:  0-4

Weekly Record: 4-1
Season Record: 12-8

That’s how my weekend of fantasy football went. How did you do?

Happy Birthday Pops!

1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Matt Schaub
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Carson Palmer
6. Jay Cutler
7. Tom Brady
8. Tony Romo
9. Philip Rivers
10. Ben Roethlisberger
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Brett Favre
14. Jason Campbell
15. Mark Sanchez

Running Backs
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Chris Johnson
4. Clinton Portis
5. Matt Forte
6. Brandon Jacobs
7. Cedric Benson
8. Steve Slaton
9. Steven Jackson
10. Marion Barber III
11. Ronnie Brown
12. Pierre Thomas
13. Glen Coffee
14. Ryan Grant
15. Darren Sproles
16. Willis McGahee
17. Julius Jones
18. Knowshon Moreno
19. Joseph Addai
20. Fred Jackson
21. Larry Johnson
22. Darren McFadden
23. Ray Rice
24. Thomas Jones
25. Jerome Harrison

Wide Receivers
1. Reggie Wayne
2. Vincent Jackson
3. Randy Moss
4. Andre Johnson
5. Jerricho Cotchery
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Santonio Holmes
8. Greg Jennings
9. Santana Moss
10. Marcus Colston
11. Chad Ochocinco
12. Mario Manningham
13. Wes Welker
14. Hines Ward
15. Steve Smith (NYG)
16. Kevin Walter
17. Donald Driver
18. Braylon Edwards
19. Percy Harvin
20. Mike Sims-Walker
21. Lee Evans
22. Bernard Berrian
23. Terrell Owens
24. Roy Williams
25. T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Tight Ends
1. Dallas Clark
2. Jason Witten
3. Antonio Gates
4. John Carlson
5. Owen Daniels
6. Chris Cooley
7. Heath Miller
8. Jeremy Shockey
9. Visanthe Shiancoe
10. Todd Heap
11. Kellen Winslow
12. Greg Olsen
13. Dustin Keller
14. Vernon Davis
15. Marcedes Lewis

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

Shaun Hill, QB, San Francisco 49ers - Frank Gore is banged up so Mike Singletary will likely lean on his passing game a bit more this week.  Going up against the lowly St. Louis Rams makes Hill an interesting play, especially if your starter is on bye.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings - This is the one Favre has been waiting for.  He gets to take on the Packers.  The ones that wronged him.  On Monday Night Football.  The stage is set for one of Favre’s vintage games.

Glen Coffee, RB, San Francisco 49ers - Coffee should also have a nice game against the Rams filling in for Gore.  He struggled against Minnesota last week, but had plenty of time to prepare to start.

Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals - Benson is quickly becoming an every week starter.  He had a nice game against Pittsburgh last week, and should be able to shred the Bears.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, New York Giants - The G-Men should get up big on Kansas City and let Bradshaw finish them up.  If you have a RB on bye this week, Bradshaw is a great fill-in.

Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings - Favre is likely to use his favorite new toy as he takes on his former team.  Harvin has scored in the Vikings’ first three games, and has a strong likelihood of extending that streak.

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston Texans - Walter had a great game (7-96, TD) against Jacksonville last week in his 2009 debut, and should be able to get free against the Raiders.  Andre Johnson will draw the attention of Nnamdi Asomugha, which should present Walter with more targets.

Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins - Normally when Santana Moss has a big game he goes in a shell for a couple of weeks.  I don’t think that will be the case this week as Tampa Bay presents a great opportunity for the diminutive WR.  Look for another big game from Moss.

Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers - Anthony Fasano bucked the trend in a bad way, but Heath Miller should continue the trend of Tight Ends producing against San Diego.

Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers - We’ll see if Vernon Davis is ready to take the next step as a top tier TE or if he’ll be a disappointment once again.  Facing the Rams works in his favor.

Shaun Suisham, K, Washington Redskins - Suisham has the perfect combo of playing in an offense that sputters in the red zone (his long FG is 28 yards) and going up against Tampa Bay, who has allowed 7 FGs already.

San Francisco 49ers DST - I’ve picked on the Rams extensively this week, so what’s one more jab.  The Niners D should be licking their chops awaiting St. Louis.

Cincinnati Bengals DST - After upsetting both Green Bay and Pittsburgh, maybe Cincinnati should started to be taken seriously.  They should have no problem pounding the Browns this weekend.

Additional Fantasy Fodder:
The Hazean – Bye Week Sleepers
Fantasy Football Fools – Pickups and Sleepers
Rotoprofessor – Sleepers
Fantasy Football Librarian – Links, Links, and More Links

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:
Trent Edwards vs. Matt Ryan – Loss.  Edwards 9.1, Ryan 9.85
Fred Jackson vs. Frank Gore – Win.  Jackson 9.7, Gore 0.4.  Injuries are part of the game.
Willis McGahee vs. Cedric Benson – Win. McGahee 18.7, Benson 14.1
Roy Williams vs. Dwayne Bowe – Incomplete.  Bowe didn’t play.
Eddie Royal vs. Jerricho Cotchery – Loss.  Royal 0.4, Cotchery 16.8
SS:  Anthony Fasano +2 vs. Owen Daniels – Loss.  Fasono 2, Daniels 9.8

Regular Picks:  2-2
Super Stretch Picks: 0-1
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 5-9
Super Stretch Picks:  0-3
Overall: 5-12

Week 4 Picks

Carson Palmer
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer over Philip Rivers
These young QBs possess two of the best arms in the game.  When healthy they both can make all of the throws.  While Rivers, is the better of the two, his matchup against a bitter Pittsburgh team on primetime leads me to believe that Palmer, who is facing Cleveland, will win this battle.

Running Backs
Glen Coffee profile Willie Parker profile
Buffalo Bills 2009 Football Headshots
Glen Coffee over Willie Parker and Fred Jackson (individually)
Coffee struggled a bit replacing Frank Gore, but he was taking on one of the top run defenses in the league with much prep time.  Now that he has a week to work with the first team offense, and a much better matchup against St. Louis, I think he’ll have a nice week.  Willie Parker is coming off a big game, but he’ll face a tough test against San Diego. I also think Coffee can outproduce Fred Jackson.  Miami is tough against the run and he’ll have to share the load with Marshawn Lynch.

Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots Steven Jackson profile
Cedric Benson over Steven Jackson
Benson should also rip the Brownies apart.  Largely taken as a RB3, Benson is solidifying his role as a legit RB2.  S-Jax is a one man wrecking crew in St. Louis, but there’s only so much he can do, especially when facing a good Niners D.  They will stuff the box and force Boller to beat them without their top WR.

Wide Receivers
Donald Driver profile Marques Colston profile
Donald Driver over Marques Colston
Driver has been hot the past couple weeks and will get plenty of looks in what should be a shootout in the Grudge Match against Minnesota on MNF.  Colston is also off to a fast start, but will be blanketed by Darrelle Revis this week as the Saints take on the Jets.

Kevin Walter profile Cleveland Browns 2009 Football Headshots
Kevin Walter over Braylon Edwards
Walter goes up against Oakland and should get plenty of looks with Andre Johnson garnering Nnamdi Asomugha’s attention and Owen Daniels working the middle of the field.  Braylon has was looked like a cream puff matchup at the beginning of the year, but my have things changed.  The Bengals are playing great D and Leon Hall has been playing lights out.
Josh Johnson profile Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots
Josh Johnson over Matt Cassel
The Super Stretch picks have failed miserably this year, but I’m heading back out there anyway.  Johnson unseated Byron Leftwich and will get a shot at Washington, who is in complete disarray.  He didn’t look good in relief or Leftwich last week, but should look better with practice time under his belt.  Cassel is finding life a bit more challenging outside of Foxboro. Going up against the Giants, even at home, is a tall order.

NFL Picks – Week 4

30 September 2009

Week 3 Results: 13-3  (WAS, HOU, PIT let me down)
Lock Picks: 2-0

Previous Lock to Win Picks:  NO (W), WAS (W), BAL (W)
Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  OAK (W), CIN (L), STL (W)

Regular Season Lock Picks:  5-1 (.833)
Regular Season Total:  36-12 (.750)

Week 4 NFL Picks:

Lock to Win:  Indianapolis
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as Winner Lock):  Kansas City

Chicago over Detroit
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Indianapolis over Seattle (Winner Lock)
New York Giants over Kansas City (Loser Lock)
New England over Baltimore
Washington over Tampa Bay
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Houston over Oakland
Buffalo over Miami
New Orleans over New York Jets
Denver over Dallas
San Francisco over St. Louis
Pittsburgh over San Diego
Minnesota over Green Bay

 | Posted by | Categories: NFL, NFL Picks | Tagged: NFL, NFL Picks, NFL Week 4, NFL Week 4 Picks |

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week.  Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

With the bye weeks upon us, you can’t necessarily sit the guys on this list unless you have great depth, but expect a drop in production.

Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers – Rivers is facing Pittsburgh on the road.  He has historically been more turnover prone on the road (22 INTs, 8 fumbles in 25 road games vs. 17 INTs, 5 fumbles in 30 home games).  Facing a desperate Steelers team won’t help matters.

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers - Facing Minnesota’s run D is always tough, but doing so in Brett Favre’s first game against the Packers should be especially tough.  The Metrodome will be rocking and the new Purple People Eaters are going to be fired up.

Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams - Mike Singletary has the Niners playing tough D.  They even kept Adrian Peterson somewhat in check.  After losing a heartbreaker, they’ll be fired up.  Jackson has to take them on in San Francisco, which doesn’t bode well for his fantasy owners.  Chester Taylor was able to do some damage through the air, which is where S-Jax will likely need to earn his keep.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Seattle Seahawks - The Colts have one of the tougher passing defenses in the league.  I wouldn’t expect Housh to have his breakout game against them.  Plus, Nate Burleson is continually getting more looks than Housh.

Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans - In three games against Oakland, Johnson has just 9 receptions for 143 yards and 1 TD.  He’ll be draped by Nnamdi Asomugha, which should limit not only his targets, but his production as well.

Week 4 Byes:  Atlanta, Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia

Matt Ryan and Kurt Warner are most difficult to replace.  McNabb is also on bye, but you’ve already had to deal with that.  Jake Delhomme won’t leave fantasy teams scrambling.

High-end Alternatives:
Jay Cutler – Possibly your starter, but if he’s not you’ll want to play him against Detroit
Carson Palmer -  Same boat, only against Cleveland

Solid Alternatives:
Mark Sanchez – Rookie will have to air it out to keep up with New Orleans.
Trent Edwards – Matchup isn’t great against Miami, but a decent option.
Brett Favre – Green Bay comes to town.  Enough said.
Shaun Hill – Hill has the luxury of facing St. Louis.
Kyle Orton – Orton will have to throw to hang with Dallas.
Joe Flacco – Flacco will have to make some plays against New England.
Jason Campbell – Tampa’s D is pretty bad.  Could have another decent one.

Running Backs
Michael Turner, Brian Westbrook, and DeAngelo Williams present the biggest challenge to replace. Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, and Tim Hightower are flex guys or RBs that you’d like to use in bye weeks.  LeSean McCoy and Jerious Norwood likely aren’t being counted on, but worth mentioning.

High-end Alternatives:
Cedric Benson – Benson makes a strong play against Cleveland.

Solid Alternatives:
Jamal Lewis – Lewis should be able to produce against Cincinnati if healthy.
Julius Jones – Jones should find room to run against Indy.
Willis McGahee – New England is not the Defense it once was.
LenDale White – Perhaps LenDale can get going against Jacksonville.
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson – We get to see how this situation plays out.
Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter – Both could be counted on against Dallas.
Leon Washington – The Jets will need their playmakers against New Orleans.
Felix Jones – Too explosive to stay on the sidelines.
Glen Coffee – With Gore out, Coffee should be brewing against St. Louis.

Desperation Time:
Donald Brown – Could get his opportunity against Seattle.
Ahmad Bradshaw – If the Giants bury Kansas City, he could close it out.
Chester Taylor – You can hope Favre hits him on a screen he takes to the house.

Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Roddy White, Steve Smith, and DeSean Jackson present the biggest challenge.  Steve Breaston and Muhsin Muhammad are depth guys that limit your alternatives.

High-end Alternatives:
Steve Smith/Mario Manningham – Could already be your starters, but should have nice game against Kansas City.
Patrick Crayton – Not a bad play against Denver.
Bernard Berrian – Favre may go to the deep pass more often after his heroic victory.

Solid Alternatives:
Ted Ginn, Jr. – Depending on which Ginn shows up.
Johnny Knox/Devin Hester – They play Detroit so either could have a nice game.
Chris Henry/Laveranues Coles/Andre Caldwell – Same deal against Cleveland.
Nate Burleson – Seattle will have to throw to stay with Indy.

Desperation Time
Mark Clayton/Kelley Washington  – Gotta pick the right one.
Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem – Inconsistent big play threats vs. the Jets.
Earl Bennett – If Hester or Knox don’t do it against Detroit, Bennett could.

Tight Ends
Tony Gonzalez is the only major TE on bye. Brent Celek has been solid, but you should have another TE handy.  Arizona and Carolina TEs don’t much matter.

High-end Alternatives:
Heath Miller – San Diego struggles containing Tight Ends.
Todd Heap – Playing well for Baltimore.
Vernon Davis – St. Louis should have a hard time covering him.

Solid Alternatives:
Benjamin Watson – With Brady, there’s always a chance he scores.
Marcdedes Lewis – Faces Tennesse which isn’t great, but he gets looks.
Kevin Boss – Not a bad alternative against KC.

Desperation Time:
There should be enough decent options that you don’t have to take too big of a gamble.

Matt Schaub 
- 29 of 40 for 307 yards, 3 TDs
Drew Brees - 23 of 35 for 363 yards, 3 TDs, INT
Jay Cutler - 29 of 49 for 361 yards, TD, 2 INTs
Brett Favre - 24 of 34 for 289 yards, 6 TDs, INT
Kurt Warner - 40 of 57 for 472 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs
Tony Romo - 28 of 47 for 300 yards, 3 TDs, INT
Kyle Orton - 18 of 34 for 199 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs 

Running Backs
Steve Slaton
 - 10 carries for 33 yards, 8 catches for 83 yards, TD
Jamal Lewis - 25 carries for 79 yards, TD, 2 catches for 15 yards
Earnest Graham - 20 carries for 111 yards, TD
Deuce McAllister - 20 carries for 73 yards, TD
Adrian Peterson - 18 carries for 80 yards, 2 TDs, 4 catches for 21 yards
Chris Johnson - 17 carries for 61 yards, 2 TDs, 3 catches for 14 yards
Larry Johnson - 28 carries for 198 yards, 2 TDs, 5 catches for 0 yards (proof PPR leagues are dumb)
Edgerrin James - 9 carries for 29 yards, 2 TDs, 5 catches for 37 yards
LaDainian Tomlinson - 20 carries for 106 yards, 2 TDs
Michael Bush - 14 carries for 48 yards, 7 catches for 80 yards
Steven Jackson - 24 carries for 110 yards, TD, 5 catches for 78 yards
Clinton Portis - 21 carries for 121 yards, 2 catches for 14 yards
Correll Buckhalter - 16 carries for 66 yards, TD, 2 catches for 24 yards
Le’Ron McClain - 16 carries for 63 yards, TD, 3 catches for 26 yards 

Wide Receivers
Muhsin Muhammad
- 8 catches for 147 yards, TD
Steve Smith - 6 catches for 96 yards, TD
Greg Jennings - 6 catches for 109 yards, 2 TDs
Lance Moore - 7 catches for 101 yards, 2 TDs
Robert Meachem - 2 catches for 99 yards, TD
Arnez Battle - 7 catches for 120 yards
Eddie Royal - 9 catches for 104 yards
Brandon Marshall - 7 catches for 77 yards, TD
Steve Breaston - 9 catches for 122 yards
Larry Fitzgerald - 8 catches for 122 yards
Anquan Boldin - 10 catches for 119 yards, TD
Laveranues Coles - 8 catches for 105 yards, 3 TDs
Jerricho Cotchery - 4 catches for 67 yards, 2 TDs
Lee Evans - 2 catches for 88 yards, TD
Santana Moss - 8 catches for 145 yards
Terrell Owens - 7 catches for 71 yards, TD
DeSean Jackson - 5 catches for 71 yards, TD
Derrick Mason - 8 catches for 137 yards
Santonio Holmes - 3 catches for 61 yards, TD

Tight Ends
Zach Miller 
- 5 catches for 95 yards, TD
Jason Witten - 7 catches for 90 yards, TD

 | Posted by | Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL | Tagged: Fantasy Football, NFL, NFL Week 4 |

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