LestersLegends.com

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Hasselbeck has the good fortune of facing Detroit’s 27th ranked passing defense. What’s worse is they have allowed 18 passing TDs, which is one behind Tennessee for the league lead.

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard squares off with Kansas City’s 28th ranked pass defense at home. In three home starts Garrard has averaged 313.3 passing yards and 32 rushing yards. He also has 5 passing TDs. On the road he’s averaging just 165.8 passing yards and 16.5 rushing yards. His lone rushing TD came on the road, but all of his passing TDs came at home.

Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I don’t love JJ this week, but he does face the 21st ranked Detroit run D at home. Jones averages a respectable 78.3 total yards in four home games with 2 TDs versus a 44 total yards and 1 TD in road games. continue reading »

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Kyle Orton over Eli Manning: Loser Orton 8.7, Eli 18.5
Steven Jackson over Michael Turner: Winner S-Jax, 22.6 Turner 21.1
Kevin Smith over Ray Rice: Loser Smith 9.4, Rice 16.8
Mike Sims-Walker over Greg Jennings: Loser MSW 0.9, Jennings 14.8
Brandon Marshall over Larry Fitzgerald: Loser Marshall 2.4, Fitz 6.6
SS: Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton over DeAngelo Williams:
Forte Winner 24.1
Chris Johnson Winner 35.9
Steve Slaton Loser 1.1
DeAngelo Williams 15.8

Regular Picks:  1-4
Super Stretch Picks: 2-1
Overall:  3-5

Season Record
Regular Picks: 17-22
Super Stretch Picks:  3-7
Overall: 20-29

Week 9 Picks

Quarterback

Matt Hasselbeck over Tony Romo
Hasselbeck should have field day against Detroit at home. Meanwhile, Romo takes on the Eagles in Philadelphia, which will be a hostile environment to say the least. They’ll bring the heat and force Romo into mistakes. continue reading »

Before we get started, click here for my Week 9 NFL Picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

With the bye weeks upon us, you can’t necessarily sit the guys on this list unless you have great depth, but expect a drop in production.

Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans
Schaub has been outstanding this year, but faces a very tough this week against the Colts in Indianapolis. Dwight Freeney and company attack opposing quarterbacks, which will pressure Schaub into making a quick decision, which could throw his timing off.

The last time he faced them he threw for 236 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs, and was sacked 3 times. Schaub also has to face them without Owen Daniels, who is lost for the year with a knee injury.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
I know he’s looked like a different Quarterback in recent weeks, thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin, but he’s facing the Eagles’ attacking defense in a hostile environment. Here’s how Tony has fared against attacking defenses this year:

- Week 2 vs. NYG:  13 for 29, 127 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs
- Week 4 @ DEN:  25 for 42, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 1 Fumble

Plus, we all know what happened in Week 17 last year in Philadelphia when he went 21 of 39 for 183 yards, an INT, and two fumbles.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Just when it looked like Forte had figured things out, he draws Arizona, one of the toughest run defenses in the league, despite being shredded by the Panthers last week. The Cardinals have more trouble stopping the pass, so Cutler will be very active.

If Forte doesn’t pick up yards in the passing game, his fantasy owners are in trouble. Also, Chicago’s defense has struggled at times, which could make them even more reliant on Cutler.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers
Mendenhall has a tough test coming out of the bye as he faces Denver, who has been tough against the run this year.  They are playing in Denver to further complicate matters.

This figures to be a knock-down drag-out battle where yards are hard to come by. As a matter of fact, I don’t recommend Knowshon Moreno for the Broncos either.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Smith had a nice little run going, but will have a battle on his hands as Carolina takes on New Orleans. He’ll have to rely on a banged up Delhomme or a very green Matt Moore.

Week 8 Results:  9-4  (DET. NYJ, ARI, GB let me down)
Lock Picks: 1-1

Previous Lock to Win Picks:  NO (W), WAS (W), BAL (W), INDY (W), PHI (W), PITT (W), NE (W), SD (W)
Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  OAK (W), CIN (L), STL (W), KC (W), DET (W), TB (W), WAS (W), CAR (L)

Regular Season Lock Picks:  14-2 (.875)
Regular Season Total:  83-33 (.716)

Week 9 NFL Picks:

Lock to Win: Atlanta Falcons
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as Winner Lock): Houston Texans

Atlanta Falcons over Washington Redskins (Winner Lock)
Chicago Bears over Arizona Cardinals
Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans (Loser Lock)
New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins
Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars over Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks over Detroit Lions
San Diego Chargers over New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers over Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers over Denver Broncos

These are heads-up picks. We’re doing picks with the spread on Yahoo. If you want to get in on the action, leave me a message in the comment with your e-mail or send one to me at contact@lesterslegends.com.

Before we get started, click here for my Week 9 NFL Picks.

Week 9 Byes: Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, Minnesota, New York Jets

Quarterbacks
Brett Favre is the only QB that could leave teams in a bind, though if you have him, you should have a another solid QB. Mark Sanchez has been good at times, but you probably aren’t going to miss him much.

Solid Alternatives:
David Garrard—Garrard plays much better at home, which is where he takes on Kansas City this week. He’s averaging 313.3 yards per game at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium with 5 TDs and 3 INTs in 3 games with an additional 32 yards per game on the ground.
Matt Hasselbeck—He’s been hit or miss this year, but he should be on this week as he takes on Detroit.

Desperation Time:
Alex Smith—He takes on Tennessee this week so if you’re really hurting, he’s worth a shot.
Matt Cassel—The Chiefs are a mess, but Cassel makes a decent play against Jacksonville.
Kyle Orton—I don’t love his matchup (Pittsburgh), but he’s been solid this year and worth using in a pinch.

Running Backs
Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch leave the biggest holes in fantasy lineups. Shonn Greene, Fred Jackson, Jamal Lewis, Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, and Chester Taylor could leave some teams scrambling for their flex spot.

High-end Alternatives:
Ryan Grant—Grant should absolutely rip the Buccaneers this week.
Pierre Thomas—Thomas has come back to Earth, but makes a nice play against Carolina this week.

Solid Alternatives:
Joseph Addai—Houston has defended the run better of late, but the way the Colts are moving the chains, Addai could be in for a productive day.
Brandon Jacobs—Jacobs goes up against San Diego this week, who has struggled mightily with the run.

Desperation Time:
Mike Bell—I can see New Orleans getting up big and using Bell and PT to finish the Panthers off. Bell makes a decent Flex play.
Ahmad Bradshaw—Bradshaw should get his usual share of touches against SD, which makes him a nice flex play.
Julius Jones—I’m not a fan of his, but he plays Detroit this week so he could have some fantasy relevance again.
Laurence Maroney—Patriot RBs scare me, but Maroney has had a couple of solid games in a row. He would have been a tier higher if he did more against Tampa Bay in London.
Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells—The Bears ain’t what they used to be. Arizona is in love with the pass, but these backs could fill in if need be.

Wide Receivers
Sidney Rice, Lee Evans, T.O., Mohamed Massaquoi, Donnie Avery, Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Braylon Edwards, and Jerricho Cotchery could leave teams in a bind at WR.

Solid Alternatives:
Nate Burleson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh—You know the drill. Play all of your Seahawks this week against Detroit.
Michael Crabtree—Juicy matchup with Tennessee.
Devin Hester—He’s really starting to get the feel for the WR position.

Desperation Time:
Hakeem Nicks—Nicks just seems to make big plays every week.
Torry Holt—Quietly playing better of late.
Andre Caldwell/Laveranues Coles/Chris Henry—At least one of these WRs should have a nice week. Picking the right one is the key. I’ll lean towards Caldwell.
Steve Breaston—Should have a productive game against Chicago.
Antonio Bryant—He’s starting to play better, though Green Bay presents a tough challenge.

Tight Ends
Visanthe Shiancoe, Zach Miller, and Dustin Keller are the only TEs to be concerned with replacing.

High-end Alternatives:
John Carlson—He’s playing Detroit so feel free to use Carlson again.

Solid Alternatives:
Jeremy Shockey—He faces Carolina, who has been tough against the pass, but Brees and the Saints can score on anybody.
Todd Heap—Heap faces Cincy, which has been tough, and the Ravens will need to get him involved to stay with the Bengals.

Desperation Time:
Tony Scheffler—He’s been coming on, but faces a tough test against the Steelers.
Donald Lee—Very Hit or Miss, but faces Tampa Bay.
Marcedes Lewis—Ditto, only Kansas City instead.
Kevin Boss—Faces SD, who has a weakness towards TEs.
Fred Davis—After his performance on MNF in replacing Cooley, I considered putting in a higher tier, but I wanted to make sure it wasn’t a fluke before endorsing him fully.

Tight Ends
Owen Daniels - 11 catches for 133 yards

Written by LEV

Observations and Predictions…
LEV from Crazy Colored Glasses checks in with his look back at Week 8 and a preview to Week 9.

Last weekend my beloved Cowboys showed they had a little fight still left in their injury (and drama) decimated team. They held on for dear life against a very good Bucs team. The defense looked very strong in limiting the Bucs to just a few field goals. Brad Johnson even utilized Roy Williams by finding him for a jumpball in the end zone. 

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

Bye weeks are here.  I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with byes, an injury, or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
David Garrard - Cincinnati is decent in terms of yardage allowed ranking 8th with 191.1 ypg.  However, they are 30th with 13 TD passes allowed.  That fits David Garrard’s M.O. for the week.  I don’t expect a huge yardage day out of him, but I would expect multiple scores.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran one in as well.
Stat Line:  23 of 38 for 229 yards, INT, 6 carries for 23 yards

RB
Kevin Faulk - For some reason I think the Patriots will rely on their Old Reliable Kevin Faulk this week as they take on the rival Indianapolis Colts.  Faulk will pick up yards both on the ground and through the air. 
Stat Line: 10 carries for 60 yards, 5 catches for 38 yards 

Tim Hightower - It appears that Hightower’s role in the Offense will increase.  He is always a threat to score, and with additional carries, he could finally put up some respectable yardage.  He’s facing St. Louis, so a nice fantasy day could be in store for the big man.
Stat Line: 22 carries for 109 yards, TD

WR
Greg Camarillo - Miami faces Denver this week, who is 28th in the league with 240 passing yards allowed per game.  Camarillo is averaging 4.5 receptions per game.  They will probably be playing from behind so I expect Camarillo to get his hands on 7 or 8 passes for about 70 yards.  He could even find his way into the endzone, which would make him that much sweeter.
Stat Line:  11 catches for 111 yards

Reggie Williams - After catching 10 TDs last year, Williams waited until Week 8 to catch his first one this year.  He was streaky last year catching three TDs in four weeks on two occasions and four straight games with a TD to finish the year.  He faces Cincinnati this week so it’s not unlikely that he catches one of Garrard’s aforementiond TD passes.
Stat Line:  2 catches for 12 yards.  Sorry.

TE
Donald Lee - Think the Packers noticed that Dallas Clark scored two TDs vs. Tennessee on MNF?  I do.  He has just four catches to past two games.  My guess is Green Bay tries to get their big man going this week, especially if Ryan Grant struggle at the goal line.
Stat Line:  3 catches for 22 yards.  Sorry.   

K
Dan Carpenter - The teams that allow the most FGs are either on bye (NO, SF, SD) or they are facing the top scoring kickers (Carney, Gostkowski, Akers).  I had to dig a little deeper, but I found Dan Carpenter who faces Denver.  The Broncos have allowed 16 FGs (23rd in league) and 59 points (21st).  Carpenter is 8 for 10 on FGs and 17 for 17 on PATs.
Stat Line:  4 FGs, 2 PATs 

DEF
Arizona - The Cardinals face St. Louis, who despite looking better in recent weeks, has allowed 24 Sacks (27th in the league).  That doesn’t bold well for them since Arizona is tied for 6th in the league with 19 Sacks.  They should be able to get Bulger to the ground, as well as force some turnovers.
Stat Line:  2 Sacks, 2 INTs, Fumble, TD

Check back after the games to see an updated stat line.