Here’s a list of Outfielders who could break out in 2009.
Jay Bruce – Bruce showcased some power with 21 HRs in 108 games, which translates to 31 in a full season, which coincidentally is the number he hit last year between the Reds and in AAA. His 2007 numbers project to 162 games as he rose through the ranks from Single A to Double A to Triple A. Does that mean I believe he’ll hit 31 HRs next year? No. It hink he may hit a few more. He had 15 HRs in 64 games after the All-Star Break. At that pace, he’d hit 38 in a full season. I don’t think he’s quite up to that task, but 33 HRs isn’t out of the question, especially in that park. I think he’ll improve his average, which was just .254 last year. He hit .334 in AAA so .270 isn’t out of the question. I expect him to produce 80 Runs and RBIs as well. He’ll need to hit Lefties much better. He hit .190 against them wiht 3 HRs and 9 RBI in 137 At Bats, compared to .286, 18, and 43 in 276 ABs against Righties.
Nelson Cruz - Nelson raked last year hitting .330 with 19 Runs, 7 HRs, and 26 RBI in 31 games. This after hitting .342 with 37 HRs, and 99 RBI in 103 AAA games. He has a history of killing AAA pitching (.328 since 2006) and then struggling in the bigs (.231 in 2006 & 2007). That changed last year when he finally put it together. For the first time he’ll start in the Majors. In a full year he should hit .280 with 75+ Runs, 25+ HRs, and 80+ RBI.
Justin Upton - Many thought last year would be his breakout year. I think he takes steps this year. Aside from his stint in A+ and AA ball in 2007 when he combined to hit .319, he hasn’t really delivered on any level. That said, he has the tools to hit .270 with 70 R, 8 Triples, 20 HRs, and 70 RBI.
Denard Span - Span was groomed to replace Torii Hunter, but missed out on his chance when Carlos Gomez was acquired in the Johan Santana trade with the Mets. Some feel he had a better Spring than Gomez, but the team wanted to have a piece of that trade in the lineup on Opening Day. Span made the most of his opportunity when he was called up. He hit .294 with 70 Runs, 47 RBI, and 18 SBs in 93 games. That projects to 122 R, 82 RBI, and 31 SBs. I don’t think he’ll score that many Runs, but he easily could hit .280 with 100 R, 30 Doubles, 15 HRs, 80 RBI, and 30 SBs.
Adam Jones - Jones made a solid debut with the Orioles after coming over in the Erik Bedard trade, hitting .270 with 61 Runs, 7 Triples, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, and 10 SBs in 132 games. In 2007 he tore up AAA pitching for Tacoma of the Pacific League hitting .314 with 25 HRs and 84 RBI in 101 games. His numbers held up pretty well with Baltimore. He’s a young kid, just 23, and should continue to progress this year hitting .280 with 80 Runs, 15 HRs, 70 RBI, and 15 SBs.
Shin-Soo Choo – South Korea’s Shin-Soo Choo had a mini-breakout last year hitting .309 with 68 Runs, 28 Doubles, 14 HRs, and 66 RBI in 94 games for the Indians. Those numbers project to 117 Runs, 48 Doubles, 24 HRs, and 114 RBI in a full season. While I don’t expect him to reach those lofty numbers, I could see him bat .300 with 90 Runs, 40 Doubles, 20 HRs, and 90 RBI.
Elijah Dukes – You know the M.O. on Dukes. Plenty of talent and plenty of issues. The move to Washington seemed to be a good one for Dukes both on and off the field. On it he scored 48 Runs with 13 HRs, 44 RBI, and 13 SBs in 81 games, which projects to 96 R, 26 HR, 88 RBI, and 26 SBs. I don’t think he’ll quite reach those numbers, but I can see 80 R, 20 HRs, 75 RBI, and 20 SBs if he stays healthy both physically and mentally.
Cameron Maybin – Though his taste in the bigs last year (.500 with 9 Runs, 16 Hits, 4 SBs in 8 games) was much briefer than his 2007 taste (.143, 8 R, 7 H, 5 SBs in 24 games) it was far more successful. He has swiped 73 bases in 299 minor league games. He very well could hit leadoff for the Marlins, which could put his Run total near 100 with 25-30 SBs if he stays healthy and doesn’t need more seasoning in AAA. He’ll turn 22 in April.
Chris Dickerson – Dickerson made an impressive debut with the Reds last year hitting .304 with 20 Runs, 31 Hits, 9 Doubles, 2 Triples, 6 HRs, 15 RBI, and 5 SBs in 31 games. His slugging percentage was an impressive .608. Before you start handing him the Rookie of the Year, his high slugging percentate in the Minors was .479. That came last year though so it’s encouraging. I think where he’ll help you is in the Runs and Stolen Bases departments. He has 135 SBs in 622 Minor League games. If he gets a full season in he could score 80 Runs and swipe 25 bases. I’d expect him to hit about 25 Doubles and 15 HRs bringing that Slugging Percentage below .500.
Travis Snider – Snider hit .301 with 9 Runs, 6 Doubles, 2 HRs, and 13 RBI in 24 games with the Blue Jays last year. He has 50 HRs and 225 RBI in 305 Minor League games, which projects to 27 & 120 in a full Major League season. Obviously he won’t hit at that clip, but it gives you an idea of what type of hitter he is. His Minor Leaugue Slugging Percentage is .513 with and OPS of .888. He’s just 21 with loads of potential. He’s probably a couple years off, but worth keeping an eye on.
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Here’s a look at some Outfielders who could struggle to match their 2008 production.
Johnny Damon – Damon had a great year for the Yankees (.303, 95 R, 168 H, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 29 SBs). At 35 you expect him to slow down at some point. I don’t expect him to completely drop off the map, but I’m putting him on a .290, 95 R, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB year. Solid numbers, but there will be better values.
Ryan Ludwick – Ludwick came out of nowhere to hit .299 with 104 Runs, 161 Hits, 40 Doubles, 37 HRs, and 113 RBI. Granted he played just 224 games, but from 2002-2007 he had 80 Runs, 160 Hits, 38 Doubles, 28 HRs, and 96 RBI. He did have 14 HRs in 303 At Bats (21.6 AB/HR) in 2007, however that number dropped to 14.5 (37 HRs in 538 ABs) in 2008. That’s quite a decrease. I’m guessing he finds himself somewhere in between those numbers in 2009. I’m seeing a .285, 85 R, 160 H, 32 Double, 28 HR, 100 RBI season for him. Not bad, but not in the elite company he shared last year.
Xavier Nady – Nady didn not play nearly as well for the Yankees compared to what he did with the Pirates.
Bucs – 89 games, 327 ABs, .330, 50 R, 108 H, 26 2B, 13 HR, 57 RBI
Yanks – 59 games, 228 ABs, .268, 26 R, 61 H, 11 2B, 12 HR, 40 RBI
He’s going to have to share ABs with Nick Swisher, which will limit his production. I’m predicting .280, 70 R, 130 H, 25 2B, 18 HR, and 75 RBI.
Pat Burrell – Pat leaves the launching pad in Philly for Tampa. According to
ESPN’s Park Factor, Citizens Bank Park ranked 11th for HRs while Tropicana Field ranked 25th. That could put a damper on the 31 HRs Burrell has averaged over the past four seasons. I think he’ll be down to 25 HRs and 75 RBI.
Jack Cust - Cust has smashed a lot of HRs the past couple of seasons. He has 59 in 876 At Bats (14.85 AB/HR). The addition of Jason Giambi could cut into Cust’s At Bat totals, especially if he is the primary DH with Daric Barton manning First Base. I’d be surprised to see Cust hit more than 20 bombs.
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Here’s a look at Outfielders who should bounce back from subpar 2008 seasons.
Carl Crawford – Despite Tampa Bay’s success last year, Crawford didn’t perform at his typical level. Crawford was limited to 109 games, which can explain the 69 Runs, 121 Hits, 12 Doubles, 8 HRs, 57 RBI, and 25 SBs. His .273 average was off his .293 career mark, but that can be expected from someone dealing with injuries. I fully expect him to return to form and hit in the low .300s with 90+ Runs, 180+ Hits, 28+ Doubles, 15+ HRs, 75+ RBI, and 40+ SBs. One interesting note is despite his struggles, he did still hit 10 Triples last year. I expect that number to jump to 15+ in ’09.
Vernon Wells – Wells had a solid season batting .300 with 20 HRs and 78 RBI. He was actually better in 108 games in 2008 than he was in 149 games in 2007. He worked with a trainer to get in better shape. Unfortunately he hurt his hamstring. As long as it doesn’t bother him all year, he should be solid. I’m putting him on a .280, 85 R, 160 H, 32 2Bs, 25HRs, 90 RBI, and 12 SBs season.
Hideki Matsui - Matsui will mostly fill the DH role for the Yankees because of his knees. He was limited to 93 games last year and had just 43 Runs, 9 HRs, and 45 RBI. He’s alternating between injury-riddled years and solid years, and fortunately it’s an odd year if the trend continues. I see him getting around 450-500 at bats and hitting .295 with 75 R, 140 H, 20 HRs, and 80 RBI.
Gary Sheffield – While he doesn’t play much OF anymore, he’s still eligible in most formats. Sheff, like most Tigers, had a down year. He hit .225 with 52 Runs, 94 Hits, 16 Doubles, 19 HRs, and 57 RBI. Those aren’t Gary Sheffield numbers. He could struggle out of the gate as he pursues HR #500. Once that’s out of the way look for him to settle in around .260, 70-75 Runs, 130 Hits, 25 Doubles, 22 HRs, and 70 RBI.
Jeff Francoeur - Francoeur hit .239 with 70 Runs, 143 Hits, 11 HRs, and 71 RBI. In his previous two years he averaged .276 with 83.5 Runs, 178.5 Hits, 24 HRs, and 104 RBI. After his struggles last year, I’m going to be conservative in my expectations of him in ’09. I’m guessing he’ll hit .260 with 75 Runs, 160 Hits, 20 HRs, and 85 RBI.
Eric Byrnes - I don’t expect a major bounceback for him as he’s likely going to be fighting for at bats as the fourth Outfielder, but he’s going to improve on his .209 average and 28 Runs, 43 Hits, 23 RBI, and 4 SBs. If nothing else, he should be a decent source of SBs.
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