LestersLegends.com » Philip Rivers


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San Diego’s Philip Rivers is easily the class of the division. It doesn’t matter who who is throwing too. Vincent Jackson holds out and only plays four games? Ho hum. Rivers throws for 4710 yards. Antonio Gates has nine touchdowns in the first eight games and then misses six of the next eight games? Big deal. Rivers throws 30 TDs (13 INT). Rivers remains a top tier QB1.
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Kansas City got 3116 yards and 27 TDs (7 INTs) from Matt Cassel and added the 6’4″ Jonathan Baldwin to his arsenal. He should take some of the pressure Dwayne Bowe, who exploded for 1162 yards and 15 TDs last year. Bowe had just one touchdown in the last five games while averaging 55.4 yards. The Chiefs also added Rodney Hudson to help their offensive line. Cassel is a solid QB2 going into the 2011 season.
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John Elway is on board with Tim Tebow as the Broncos’ quarterback. Tebow will have his ups and downs, but should be a solid QB2 thanks to his ability to run the football. He had six rushing touchdowns last year. New coach John Fox has Kyle Orton on top of the depth chart, but he could be traded once the lockout is lifted. If he beats out Tebow, he will also be a solid QB2. I just assume at some point Tebow would get a chance to start.
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Then there is the Raiders. Jason Campbell is the starter, but he’s not much of a fantasy option. He topped 240 yards just twice.  He had one or fewer touchdown passes in ten of the 13 games he played in. I would look elsewhere for my backup fantasy quarterback.
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The fantasy playoffs continued as the Chargers destroyed the 49ers last night.
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Having players go in the Thursday night games gives you a little bit of an advantage. If your players do well, you can perhaps be a little more cautious with your team. If your players failed to put up good numbers, perhaps you will want to take a bigger risk, hoping to make up some ground. You also get a feel for your matchup depending on how your opponents players did. Let’s take a look at how fantasy owners will be feeling about their players.
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Quarterbacks:  Philip Rivers (273 yards, three touchdowns) didn’t have Antonio Gates or Malcom Floyd in his arsenal, but it did not matter. He just reunited with an old flame in Vincent Jackson to put on a clinic. If you used Alex Smith (165 yards, INT), you’re in some serious trouble.
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Running Backs: There were four possible running back choices in this one. Mike Tolbert (46 yards, TD) was the top ranked of the quartet and he delivered the best score. Brian Westbrook (30 total yards, TD) did well enough for those of you who took a chance on him. Ryan Mathews (56 yards) was OK, while Anthony Dixon (35 total yards) was a letdown.
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Wide Receivers:  Vincent Jackson (112 yards, 3 TDs) was a beast. I bumped him into the top 15 when news broke of Floyd and Gates inactive status. I just wish I bumped him higher. Josh Morgan (106 yards) once again was the top wide receiver threat. He has becoming one of those unheralded players that make fantasy football playoffs legends. Michael Crabtree (17 yards) was a dud. Legedu Naanee was a major letdown.
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Tight Ends: Vernon Davis (4 yards) was nearly invisible. Tough break for his fantasy owners. You’ll have to make up those points. Randy McMichael (55 yards) did an admirable job filling in for Gates.
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Kickers:  Nate Kaeding kicked two field goals (25, 39) and had four PATs. Solid start. Jeff Reed was held to one lonely PAT.
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Defenses:  San Diego was a beast holding the Niners to seven points. They racked up six sacks and forced on turnover (INT). The Niners got blitzed allowing 34 points. They had just one sack and did not force a turnover.
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Image courtesy of Icon SMI

 

With each passing day the likelihood that Vincent Jackson will play a down for the Chargers this season worsens. Even with their new rookie RB Ryan Mathews figuring to provide more balance on offense, this is still Philip Rivers team, meaning they will be throwing the football early and often.

 

Antonio Gates will likely lead the Chargers in targets, but Floyd will be counted on to use his big frame (6’5″, 225 lbs) similar to the way Vincent Jackson did.

 

Floyd showed big play potential last year catching 45 passes for 776 yards (17.2 yards per catch). His career ypc is 16.5. He’ll have to improve on his one TD though. However, with Vincent Jackson (6’5″, 230) out of the mix, Floyd will be more likely to get them. Legedu Naanee (6/2″, 220) just doesn’t have the size Floyd does.

 

Assuming V-Jax doesn’t play for the Chargers Floyd could be a steal in fantasy drafts. His current Mock Draft Central ADP is 69th (25th WR). It’s a little bit of a risk going with a somewhat unknown commodity, but sometimes you need to take risks to win. In all likelihood you can get the number one WR on a pass-first team as a WR3. What’s not to like about that scenario?

 

What are your thoughts on Malcom Floyd? Would you want him as your WR3?

The biggest concern the Chargers are facing is the possible holdouts of Vincent Jackson and Tackle Marcus McNeill and not LaDainian Tomlinson’s departure. It appears unlikely that they will have the services of these two key players any time soon.

 

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
The Chargers should start the fantasy playoffs with a bang in a Week 14 match-up with Kansas City at home. Next they face the Niners at home before playing the Bengals in Cincinnati in the fantasy championship.

 

Five Star Fantasy Options
Philip Rivers – Losing Vincent Jackson would hurt, but Rivers would make do. He would still have Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee have potential. Plus, Darren Sproles is effective catching the ball out of the backfield.

 

Antonio Gates – Despite his decline, LT still scored12 TDs. It’s hard to imagine rookie Ryan Matthews will punch in that many. Gates should get plenty of looks in the red zone and a return to double-digit TDs is highly likely. If V-Jax does holdout, Gates will get more looks. He could easily be the top scoring TE in 2010.

 

Four Star Fantasy Options
Ryan Matthews – I know he’s only a rookie, but he is in a good situation. If McNeill does hold out, bump him down to a three star. Matthews should get plenty of carries between the 20s. He could yield some red zone carries to Darren Sproles because of Sproles’ versatility, but the one-yard plunges should belong to Matthews.

 

Three Star Fantasy Options
Darren Sproles – Sproles did not have the season many expected him to, but still finished with 840 total yards and 7 TDs. He should be able to at least match those numbers, and even top them if Matthews struggles to adjust to the speed of the NFL.

 

Vincent Jackson – If he doesn’t hold out, you can easily move him up to the five star level. He’s that talented. He’s big, he’s fast, and is a good bet for 1000+ yards and 10+ TD if, and it’s a big if, he can come to terms with the front office.

 

Malcom Floyd – If Jackson holds out, you can move Floyd up to at least a 3.5 star rating. He’s a big play threat averaging 17.2 yards per catch the past two seasons. He could produce a 1000 yards season if given enough looks.

 

Chargers Defense/Special Teams – They aren’t the force they once were, but the do play the Chiefs twice (Weeks 1, 14), Raiders twice (5, 13), Seahawks (3), and Rams (6).

 

Two Star Fantasy Options
Legedu Naanee – Naanee could add a star if V-Jax sits out. He has good size (6’2″, 220), but has yet been given the opportunity to show what he can do. There is a bit of risk in drafting Naanee, but do remember who his QB is.

 

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

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Vincent Jackson was supposed to breakout in 2007.  He did OK with 41 catches for 623 yards and 3 TDs.  Not exactly breakout numbers though.  Last year he stepped up his production though with 59 grabs for 1098 yards and 7 TDs.  He’s not the most consistent threat with five games with under six points in standard fantasy scoring, but he can string together a solid stretch as evidenced by his six TDs in nine weeks (Week 6-15).  Plus, he finished strong with averages of 98.75 yards and 0.5 TDs in the last four games. 

Jackson should continue to develop into one of the game’s best playmakers.  I can see him more involved in the offense as he and Rivers have formed a nice connection.  I’m expecting 70 catches for 1150 yards and 8 TDs, making him a solid WR2.  He should be around the 15th-20th WR taken in the 4th-6th round.


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