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The fantasy playoffs are underway in the majority of leagues as the Colts and Titans kicked off the action last night.
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Having players go in the Thursday night games gives you a little bit of advantage. If your players do good, you can perhaps be a little more cautions with your team. If your players failed to put up good numbers, perhaps you will want to take a bigger risk, hoping for a bigger reward to make up for it. You also get a feel for your match-up depending on how your opponents players did. Let’s take a look at how fantasy owners will be feeling about their players.
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Quarterbacks:   If you started Peyton Manning (319 yards, two TDs), which is roughly 99.9 percent of his owners, you are off to a great start. You can’t ask for much more than 300+ and a pair of scores without a pick. If you went with Kerry Collins (244 yards, three TDs) I want proof. Seriously though, heck of a call. You can’t be happier with your results.
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Running Backs: If you went with Chris Johnson (179 total yards, TD), which also is virtually everybody who owns him, you are off and running (pun intended). He came in with a juicy match-up, and he shrugged off his recent slump and delivered when you needed it the most. It does help to have a competent QB. If you rode the Javarris James (49 yards, TD) train, kudos to you. Donald Brown (62 total yards) had just enough total yardage to keep him from being a bust if he was in your lineup.

Here we are. The fantasy football mother lode. The Colts have an offense that is nearly impossible to slow down. Their biggest concern is they are too good and shut it down early.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They take on the Titans on the road, the Jags at home, and the Raiders on the road. Though the week 16 match-up with Oakland appears favorable, you can’t count on the Colts’ starters to play the whole game.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Peyton Manning – Manning is consistently one of the top fantasy QBs. Everybody knows that.

Reggie Wayne – Though he has to share with the Colts’ plethora of other options, he still managed to average 1249 yards and 8.7 TDs over the past six years.

Dallas Clark – He’s so big and fast that it’s not fair he’s an excellent route runner with soft hands. He had 100 catches for 1106 yards and 10 TDs last year.

Four Star Fantasy Options
Joseph Addai – Everybody was ready to write him off because of Donald Brown’s arrival, but all Addai did was pick up 1164 total yards (828 rushing) and 13 TDs (10 rushing). He’s only 27 years old.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Donald Brown – Brown has big play ability and the Colts would like to give him a larger role in the offense assuming he can stay healthy. The Colts have the ability to have two fantasy relevant RBs at the same time.

Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie – I like Garcon more than Collie (or Anthony Gonzalez). He took his game to a new level in last year’s playoff fun. Don’t think Manning didn’t notice. Collie has to have the upper hand for the slot position thanks to Gonzalez’s injury.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Anthony Gonzalez – After last year I am putting Gonzalez on “double secret probation”. A ton of fantasy owners got burned not so much by his injury, but by the fact that they wasted a roster spot for him for so long in anticipation of his return.

Colts Defense/Special Teams – The Colts face the Texans twice, the Titans twice, the Giants, Eagles, Bengals, Patriots, Chargers, and Cowboys. Their easiest match-up is against the Raiders when they could be resting starters like Dwight Freeney in Week 16.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

In the battle to see who will fill Anthony Gonzalez’s shoes for the Colts, Round 1 went to Pierre Garcon, who caught a 48-yard game-winning TD from Peyton Manning with 3:18 remaining.  Though Garco trumped Austin Collie 10.8 to 0.4, they both had just one reception.

This was not a typical game for the Colts as they were thoroughly dominated in time of possession by a 3:1 ratio.  It’s hard to get a good read on a situation when you only run 35 plays.

Garcon did earn Peyton’s trust by delivering in the clutch so he shouldn’t be afraid to call his number next week against Arizona.  Unfortunately with a limited workload it’s hard to endorse using Garcon next week.

Though Garcon outperformed Collie, the real winner in the Colts offense was Dallas Clark, who scored on a 80-yard TD in Indy’s first play en route to a seven catch, 183 yard performance.  Reggie Wayne was a letdown with just 3 catches for 37 yards.

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Reggie Wayne had a “down year” with just 82 receptions for 1145 yards and 6 TDs.  After averaging 1271.3 yards and 9 TDs the past four years and 1410 yards and 9.5 TDs the past two years, the 2008 numbers were a bit of a letdown.  I fully expect him to bounce back in a big way, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Wayne was the top scoring WR this year.  The Colts run a timing based offense, and with Manning missing so much time in the preseason it was like he and Wayne never got off on the right foot. Knowing how intense and dedicated Peyton is, I am confident they will be on the same page from the jump.  The addition of Donald Brown in the running game should make Indy a more balanced attack on offense.  That’s when Manning and Wayne are the most dangerous.

The fear of the Colts running away with the division and sitting their key players in the fantasy playoffs no longer remains.  Tennessee should remain a contender despite Albert Hayneworth’s departure, Houston should continue to push towards a playoff spot, and Jacksonville should be improved.  Wayne will get snatched up in the second round in most fantasy drafts.  He’s a perfect choice if you have a pick late in the first round to pair with Fitz or Andre Johnson, especially in PPR leagues.  I’m predicting 1400 yards and 10 TDs from Wayne, production you’ll have a hard time finding from a RB in the slot Wayne is going.

This is my preseason top ten.

Click here for my Midseason revised rankings.

Click here for my Second Half rankings.

1.  Larry Fitzgerald
It was actually close for me between Fitz and Andre Johnson, but after his playoff run, no way I can not chose #11.  He reached 1400 yards and double-digit TDs for the third time in his last four seasons.  Kurt Warner is back.  I knew about the leaping ability, his body control, great route running, and hands, but I did not know he had that extra gear that he kicked in during his long Super Bowl TD.  That HAD to scare Defensive Coordinators to death.

2.  Andre Johnson
I let the cat out of the bag already with Johnson, but a quick glance at his numbers (115 receptions, 1575 yards, 8 TDs) and you can see why he was 1-A prior to the playoffs.  His QB, Matt Schaub, has a tendency to get hurt.  Having his backup, Sage Rosenfels, leave for Minnesota hurts his value a little.  Not enough to knock him out of the second slot, but it’s a question mark that wasn’t there last year.

3. Calvin Johnson
Megatron is right on par with the top two.  He just happens to play for the lowly Lions.  He still managed 1331 yards and 12 TDs.  He’s just getting his feet wet in the league, and the Lions should be a little more stable at QB next year with Culpepper participating in OTAs and training camp.  Plus, they very well could be selecting a stud QB or Offensive Lineman in the draft.

4.  Reggie Wayne
Wayne had a down year for the Colts (1145 yards, 6 TDs), but with Marvin Harrison not returning, I see no reason why Wayne doesn’t bounce back with a 1400 yard, 10 TD season.  If the Colts didn’t have so many other weapons, I’d put him in the top three.

5.  Steve Smith
Smith had 1421 yards despite missing two games for breaking teammate Ray Lucas’ nose in the preseason, having a less than stellar QB, and playing on a run first team.  That speaks volumes about Smith’s ability.  I don’t think he’ll break anyone’s nose this year so he should play a full season, but the other two scenarios won’t change.  Still, he’s too good to move any further.

6.  Randy Moss
With Tom Brady back under Center, Randy Moss moves up a few notches from where he finished in 2008.  Will he snag another 23 TD passes?  Hardly.  How about close to 1500 yards?  Not likely.  However, a 1300 yards, 12 TD season should be easily attainable.

7.  Greg Jennings
Jennings meshed well with first time QB Aaron Rodgers proving he wasn’t a mirage created by Brett Favre’s gunslinging ways.  Jenning actually proved to be more of a possession receiver recording 55 first downs (compared to 37 in 2008).  He also improved by 27 receptions and 372 yards.  His TD total decreased from 12 to 9, but his yards per catch didn’t change dramatically (17.4 to 16.2).  Rodgers won’t have to deal with the Favremania this offseason and won’t have quite as much pressure on him to escape #4′s shadow.  They can just focus on playing football, something both Jennings and Rodgers do well.

8.  Anquan Boldin
Boldin would be higher if  he could stay healthy (16 missed games in six season) and if his contract status weren’t in question.  Playing opposite of Larry Fitzgerald helps.  Having Kurt Warner at QB also helps.  Even if he forced his way out of Arizona, he would still produce in a new system.  He’s that good.

9.  Roddy White
White was great last year catching 88 passes for 1382 yards and 7 TDs with Rookie QB Matt Ryan proving his 2007 numbers (83, 1202, 6) weren’t a fluke.  As Ryan grows as a QB so will Roddy.  Michael Jenkins took a step forward last year to give him a compliment at wideout.  Plus, Defenses have Michael Turner to worry about.

10. Terrell Owens
I’m sure you’re well aware that T.O. landed in Buffalo.  While it’s not an ideal situation, T.O. should be motivated to prove Dallas wrong.  He has double-digit TDs in seven of his last nine seasons.  Lee Evans is the best Wide Receiver mate that T.O. has seen in quite some time.  His deep ball threat will keep Safeties honest.  T.O. could be in for a very big year.  I have him at ten because being T.O., his mouth could get him into trouble at any time.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

Past Top Tens
Running Backs

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI

The Colts and Marvin Harrison came to a crossroads.  Marvin Harrison would either restructure his contract so he could retire as a Colt or he would be granted his release.  The team and their star receiver were just too far apart so after 13 years they will part ways.  He certainly left his mark in Indy with 1102 receptions (including a record 143 in 2002), 14580 yards, and 128 TDs.  He had a string of eight straight 10+ TD seasons and formed one of the NFL’s top QB-WR tandems with Peyton Manning.  He’s not the same receiver any more though as he managed just 80 receptions for 883 yards, and 6 TDs in 20 games over the past two years.

It’s going to be tough for Manning, the Colts, and their fans to adjust to life without #88, but the past two years have afforded them the opportunity to put a plan in place.  Anthony Gonzalez emerged as a solid WR who should hold his own opposite of Reggie Wayne.  Plus, Tight End Dallas Clark became the second option in the Colts’ passing attack last year with his 77 receptions for 848 yards.

As for Harrison, he’ll find a place to land.  There is plenty of speculation that he’ll end up as an Eagle.  He’s from Philly, played college ball at Syracuse with Donovan McNabb, and McNabb recently lobbied for help on Offense.  Even if he doesn’t land in Philly there will be plenty of suitors for the talented wideout.

After years of very little change the Colts will have to adjust to life after Dungy.  If anybody is capable of handling a new Coach, it’s Peyton Manning.  He’s still slinging the pigkin and the Offense won’t change drastically.  Joseph Addai will once again be the feature back.  Dominic Rhodes is an Unrestricted Free Agent, but I suspect he’ll be back.  Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark will once again be at Peyton’s disposal.  Marvin Harrison may not.  Either way WR is probably a position that gets upgraded in the draft.  Jeff Saturday most likely won’t return either, but they should be covered as the team addressed that need in last year’s draft.

Kelvin Hayden is their key Defensive Free Agent.  He was their top CB last year, but could come with a steep price tag.  If they lose him, obviously that creates a hole to be filled.  LB Tyjuan Hagler is also a free agent that the Colts will look to bring back.
 
This is a championship caliber team that doesn’t need, nor will likely make, any major moves during the offseason.

** Update:  Kelvin Hayden signed five-year deal with Colts. **

KFFL Free Agent Tracker: