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Knowshon Moreno finally came to terms with the Denver Broncos.  Thankfully his holdout didn’t extend too far into Training Camp for Moreno to have a major setback.  He obviously won’t start the first couple of preseason games, but he should be able to get plenty of opportunities to compete for the starting Tailback gig.

Moreno was selected with the 12th pick in the NFL Draft, which is significant considering the shape their Defense was in last year.  He has the strength to run between the tackles, the speed to get outside, and the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.  He’ll have to show he can pick up the blitz and he could be a three-down back eventually.  He’ll be pushed by fellow newcomer Correll Buckhalter, but Buck has been an career backup with a history of knee injuries, so I wouldn’t count on him to have too heavy of a workload.

Playing in the AFC West, Denver has some nice matchups.  They face Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland to start the season, so it’s important he win the starting job by then.  He has another nice three game stretch starting in Week 13 when the Broncos face the Chiefs, and going into the fantasy playoffs when they face Indianapolis and Oakland again.  It’s not all a walk in the park though as Denver takes on New England (Week 4), Baltimore (Week 8), Pittsburgh (Week 9), Washington (Week 10), New York Giants (Week 12), and Philadelphia (Week 16).

If you’ve drafted already, perhaps you were able to sneak him a little later, but now that he’s signed he’ll likely go in the third or fourth round of fantasy drafts.  I’m expecting 1200 total yards and 8 TDs with 45 receptions.

Some of the best breakout performers in football fantasy leagues are rookies, who we’re not quite sure what we are going to get from.  Let’s take a look at who my Top 5 rookie running backs will be for this season.

1. Knoshown Moreno – Denver Broncos
He was ranked #19 on my Top 25 running backs list (click here to view), so naturally he’s going to take the top spot on this list.  He was the first back off the board, taken #12 overall, and enters the season with little competition in the backfield.  Does anyone really think Correll Buckhalter or LaMont Jordan offer much of a threat to his carries at this point?

Despite Mike Shanahan no longer leading the way, the Broncos have long been a team capable of creating running backs seemingly from nothing.  Moreno should be the next in a long line of success stories as he develops into a must use option in all formats.

2. Chris Wells – Arizona Cardinals
The other rookie who found his way into my Top 25 (#22), he posted back-to-back 1,000+ yards, averaging 5.9 and 5.8 yards per carry.  That may be college, but it is still worth noting.

With Edgerrin James jettisoned during the off-season, his prime competition will be Tim Hightower (399 yards and 10 TD last season).  I would be surprised if they didn’t at least split carries, but Wells has significantly more upside and should ultimately see the bulk of the carries.  He may lose some TD potential by sharing time with Hightower (which is the major difference between himself and Moreno), but that’s something that can be said about many at this point in the NFL.

3. Donald Brown – Indianapolis Colts
Even with Joseph Addai, the Colts saw an opportunity to add talent to the backfield and quickly took it.  It’s tough to imagine drafting a running back in the first round not to give him significant carries, so you have to imagine the Brown is going to get a chance to shine.

While Addai struggled last season, playing in only 12 games and picking up 544 yards, he began his career with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons.  It’s hard to imagine him not getting an opportunity to play as well, which certainly will decrease Brown’s potential value.  That’s what keeps him a step behind the other two backs selected in the first round, he’s definitely in a situation to share carries.

4. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles
Make no mistake, McCoy is going to be the back to provide a rest for Brian Westbrook, who we all know always tends to be battling an injury.  If Westbrook were to go down, opening up more playing time for McCoy, he could prove to have significant value for fantasy owners in all formats.  At this point, however, he’s not likely to be more of a bye week fill-in, as he doesn’t have the potential to put up huge numbers on a week-to-week basis.

5. Andre Brown – New York Giants
Last season the Giants employed a three running back set, with Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw.  With Ward now calling Tampa Bay home, the Giants needed a new back to join their three-headed monster.  In the fourth round out N.C. State, they may have found that man.

At 6′0″, 224 lbs., his stature is very similar to that of Ward and the Giants may lean on him to mimic his performance if they determine that Bradshaw is better suited as a third down back.  If that were to happen, Brown could see significant carries and really be a weapon in deeper fantasy formats.  Wait and see, but he’s a player worth keeping an eye on.

Honorable Mention: Shonn Greene, New York Jets

What do you think of these rookies?  Who will have the biggest performance?  Who’s likely to fall flat?

Now let’s take a look at the Running Backs that got drafted.

Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos
This move made little sense to me.  Moreno is a talented back, but Denver had more pressing needs to address.  Namely their Defense.  With Brian Orapko, Malcom Jenkins, Brian Cushing, etc. available, I feel the Broncos would have been better off drafting one of those three.  I did like their selecion of Robert Ayers a few picks later, but they had a chance to add two of the top Defensive players in the draft.  Another reason I did not like the move was the RB depth they added this Offseason with Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, and J.J. Arrington joining the Broncos.  To me Moreno is the best of the backs, but with that sort of depth, he won’t be the top producing Rookie Running Back.

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts probably should have addressed their Run Defense with Evander Hood or Ron Brace, but adding a back was a key following the departure of Dominic Rhodes.  Joseph Addai is a talented back, but I’m not sure he can stay healthy enough to carry the full load.  Brown gives them a nice 1-2 punch, although his stats, along with Addai’s, will suffer barring an injury to one or the other.

Chris “Beanie” Wells, Arizona Cardinals - I feel Beanie will have the best Rookie season of all the backs.  Arizona will try to be a little more balanced next year like they were in the playoffs.  They are a better team when they play that way.  Wells will get plenty of carries.  If the Cardinals got a smaller back, perhaps Tim Hightower would have more fantasy value.  With Wells, he may not get quite as many touches in the red zone.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – McCoy has the opportunity to be one of the better long-term RBs in this draft.  He is versatile and gets to learn from Brian Westbrook.  With Buckhalter’s departure, he’ll get some carries, especially when Westy gets nicked up and misses a game or two.

Shonn Greene, New York Jets - This was a pretty telling pick by the Jets.  Considering they only had two picks in the first five rounds, it is worth noting they took Greene with their third round pick.  Thomas Jones is getting up their in Running Back years and they must not feel Leon Washington is an every down back.

Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers – The Niners don’t have a lot of talent at RB behind Frank Gore.  Adding Alabama’s Coffee changes that.

Mike Goodson, Carolina Panthers - With DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in front of him, Goodson has little value outside of Special Teams play.

Andre Brown, New York Giants – This is a luxury pick by the G-Men as they add the talented back in the fourth round.  Brown can slide into Ahmad Bradshaw’s slot as Bradshaw moves up to replace Derrick Ward.

Gartrell Johnson, San Diego Chargers – Gives the Chargers some depth as LT is aging and Sproles may not be big enough to handle the full load.

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Yesterday we profiled Beanie Wells.  Today we’ll take a look at Knowshon Moreno, the other top Running Back.  Moreno was an absolute beast at Georgia running for 1336 yards on 248 carries (5.4 ypc) with 14 TDs as a Freshman and 1400 yards on 250 carries (5.8) with 16 TDs as a Sophomore.  He added 53 receptions for 645 yards and 2 TDs.
Knowshon has the perfect RB build (5’11″, 217 Lbs), but was surprisingly slower than expected at the Combine and in his Pro Day.  According to Rob Rang from The SportsXchange, ”He was stunningly disappointing at the combine, running in the 4.6s and posting the lowest vertical jump of any running back tested (25 inches), according to Moreno elected not to jump at his Pro Day and again was clocked in the 4.6s, despite weighing in seven pounds lighter.”  While he may lack explosive speed, he makes up for it with his instincts, vision, quickness and elusiveness.  Even though his measurables didn’t meet expectations, his track record at Georgia and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield should allow him to be a first round selection and an effective every down back in the NFL. 

Here’s a look at where some of the experts have him pegged:
Scott Wright’s Draft Countdown:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals

Draft King:  #17 to the New York Jets

Consensus Draft Services:  #9 to the Green Bay Packers

The Football Expert:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals

War Room Report:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals

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Following up an NFL Rookie class that featured Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Jonathan Stewart, and Kevin Smith is going to make most Draft Classes look bad.  One of the Running Backs that could hold his own is Ohio State’s Chris “Beanie” Wells. 
Wells is a big back (6’1″, 235 lbs) with decent speed.  He was clocked at a 4.59 forty time at the combine, but improved his stock during his Pro Day, according to Rob Rang, The SportsXchange,, when he showcased 4.38 straight-line speed.

Beanie is a physical back that gets better throughout the course of the game, wearing down his opponents.  The drawback to his physical style though are the nagging injuries he was plagued by at the Collegiate level.  He was able to play through most of those injuries, but it still is a cause for concern.  However, his size, speed, vision, and ability to shed tackles make him an ideal candidate to make the jump to the next level.

Beanie ran for 3382 yards on 585 carries (5.8 ypc) with 30 TDs.  He wasn’t much of a factor in the passing game (just 15 career receptions), but he did have a tendency to step up for big games.

2006 vs. Michigan – 5 carries for 56 yards, TD
2007 vs. Michigan State – 31 carries for 221 yards, TD
2007 vs. Penn State  – 25 carries for 133 yards
2007 vs. Wisconsin – 21 carries for 169 yards, 3 TDs
2007 vs. Michigan – 39 carries for 222 yards, 2 TDs
2007 National Championship vs. LSU – 20 carries for 146 yards, TD
2008 vs. Wisconsin – 22 carries for 168 yards, TD
2008 vs. Michigan State – 31 carries for 140 yards, 2 TDs
2008 vs. Michigan – 15 carries for 134 yards, TD
2008 Fiesta Bowl vs. Texas – 16 carries for 106 yards

Penn State did hold him to 55 yards on 22 carries last year.

Here’s a look at where some of the experts have him pegged:
Scott Wright’s Draft Countdown:  #28 to the Philadelphia Eagles  #17 to the New York Jets

Draft King:  #31 to the Arizona Cardinals

Consensus Draft Services:  #14 to the New Orleans Saints

The Football Expert:  #21 to the Philadelphia Eagles

War Room Report:  #28 to the Philadelphia Eagles

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