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Do You Trust Ryan Grant?

31 August 2011

760 Packers v Buccaneers
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Ryan Grant is assured of a roster spot thanks to Green Bay guaranteeing his contract. He is not, however, guaranteed the starting tailback gig.
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I know he has a pair of 1200 yard seasons under his belt, but this is a “what have you done for me lately” league. I know you can’t control whether or not you get injured, but you are not simply handed the starting job back when you return. Especially when the team won the Super Bowl in your absence.
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James Starks has simply had a better camp than Ryan Grant. He has been more explosive. Fortunately for Grant owners, Starks has been dealing with an ankle injury that has prevented him from making a splash in the games. Through the Packers first three playoff games he has three carries for 16 yards. He did make up for it with five catches for 38 yards in the important third preseason game against the Colts.
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Grant hasn’t shown much flash either. In three preseason games Grant has 52  yards on 14 carries (3.7 ypc).
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The Packers are going to want a balanced attack. They were at their best last  year when Starks keeping defenses honest with the ground game. We all know that the Packers will look to pass first, but they won’t ignore the ground game.
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The problem is that with two capable backs the Pack could easily find themselves in the dreaded RBBC. Given the fact that Grant is coming off injury and Starks has yet to prove  he can stay healthy, it’s probably not a bad idea.
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This is a situation to try to avoid if possible. I know eventually you can’t continue to let them slip, but Ryan Grant especially is seriously overrated in fantasy drafts. MockDraftCentral has him at 54, which puts him midway through the fifth round. I’m sorry, but there is too much risk there. I would let somebody else deal with him.
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Jay Glazer is reporting that Ryan Grant is done for the season with leg and ankle injuries. Run, don’t walk, and make a bid for Brandon Jackson. However, you have to understand that he’s not going to get you what Grant would have. If you don’t get Jackson, Fred Taylor or Peyton Hillis are other RBs to target.
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In other injury news, two players that could not be any more different in stature, but both dramatically affect the way their team defends the run could miss the season as well. Of course I’m talking about the Colts’ Bob Sanders (torn bicep) and the Jets’ Kris Jenkins (knee). Feel free to downgrade both defenses, particularly when it comes to stopping the run.

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As I suggested in this week’s Get ‘em or Don’t Sweat ‘em article, Brandon Jackson will get the start for the Packers this week against the Lions. Ryan Grant, who was on the sidelines in a boot was already ruled out of the contest. Needless to say Brandon Jackson should be a hot commodity on the waiver wire.
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The Lions held the Bears to 3.3  yards per carry, but were destroyed by Matt Forte’s receiving numbers. Jackson, who started the season as the Packers’ third-down back, should be suited to attack Detroit’s defense in a similar manner. 
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If you’re looking for a short-term fix at RB, Jackson is your guy this week.
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Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Ben Tate Injured

15 August 2010

The Texans were dealt a blow when rookie RB Ben Tate suffered a significant ankle injury in their preseason opener against Arizona. Tate was expected to part of a rotation with Arian Foster and Steve Slaton. Slaton didn’t do himself any favors as his fumbling issue surfaced during the game. Arian Foster, who was the favorite to start the season as their lead back, not only solidified that role, but improved his fantasy stock. As the unquestioned starting RB in a potent offense, Foster should be considered a low-end RB2.

 

In other news, Green Bay RB Ryan Grant left the Packers’ preseason game with an apparent concussion. While you shouldn’t worry about his Week 1 status, there is t he concern of future concussions. I’m not lowering my expectation for Grant, or his ranking, but I understand if you do.

 

Finally, don’t be alarmed if you don’t see Dallas Clark when the Colts open their preseason today. He is out with a minor leg injury. Its worth mentioning since he is one of the most highly ranked TEs in the game, but nothing to lose sleep over.


Image courtesy of Icon SMI

 

Not according to Grant’s ADP at Mock Draft Central that has him going on average with the 21st pick. A number that is staggering to me, considering Grant is coming off a 1450 total yard (1253 rushing), 11 TD season. In fact, it was the second consecutive 1200+ yard season for the fourth year back that will turn 28 during the season.

 

He’s going after guys like Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, and Ryan Matthews who are far more unproven. He’s even going after WRs like Calvin Johnson and Miles Austin who have bigger question marks entering the new season.

 

Grant picked it up down the stretch averaging 92.7 total yards with 5 TDs in last year’s fantasy playoffs (Week 14-16). He didn’t turn in many monster weeks, but he didn’t have many duds either. He was a steady source of fantasy points all year long.

 

Grant has little competition for carries. Top backup Brandon Jackson always seems to get nicked up. Rookie James Starks isn’t ready to take on meaningful carries. Grant’s main threat is Aaron Rodgers stealing rushing TDs. The Packers would be wise to let Grant run in short TD passes and save their franchise QB from the hits.

 

Grant isn’t going to fool anyone for Ray Rice or MJD with his pass-catching ability, but he has averaged 24.3 catches for 152.7 yards in his three seasons.

 

I am expecting 1450 (1300 rushing) total yards and 9 TDs from Grant, which is enough to have him as my 8th ranked RB (click to see my updated 2010 fantasy RB rankings) and 9th overall (click to see my 2010 Top 50 fantasy rankings).

 

What are your thoughts on Ryan Grant? Would you take him in the first round of your fantasy draft?


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