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2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Is Ryan Howard Beginning To Fade?

24 February 2011

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After averaging 46.7 home runs and 141 runs batted from 2007-2009, not factoring his ridiculous 58 HR, 149 RBI 2006 season, Howard hit just 31 HRs last year with 108 RBI. While those are still solid numbers, they clearly aren’t the type of numbers that made him a star.
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I know he was limited to 143 games and 550 at bats because of a sprained ankle, but his slugging percentage (.505) and OPS (.858) were career lows. He hit a home run every 17.7 at bats, which is a far cry from his career 12.8 mark. Could this be the beginning of a downward trend?
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I say “not so fast”. He’s only 31 years old. If he were a few years older, I would be very concerned with his power drop, but he’s still plenty young to mash with the best of him. Plus, it’s not like his HR total was in the high thirties and low forties. He hit between 45 and 58 HRs the four previous seasons. He had between 136 and 149 RBI. Those are ridiculous numbers.
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While Jayson Werth is gone, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have a chance to be in the lineup a ton more this year. J-Roll was limited to 88 games and Utley was limited to 115. Losing two dynamic players like them will have an adverse effect on your RBI total.
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If you look at the monthly breakdown of Howard’s numbers, you’ll see he had just one bad month, which came in August. He was limited to just one HR and four RBI. Every other month, Howard had at least 16 RBI, including three with 20+.
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If you want Howard, it’s going to cost you. His average draft position, according to Mock Draft Central, is 16. That’s a decent risk considering how deep the first base position is. That said, there aren’t many players with legitimate 50 HR, 140 RBI potential.
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I don’t think Howard is on the decline yet. I think he rebounds this year and hits 40+ HR with 120+ RBI. What’s your take?
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A Take on the Ryan Howard Contract

29 April 2010

By Dave Marshall, PokerJunkie.com

The Philadelphia Phillies earlier in the week signed first baseman Ryan Howard to five-year contract extension that will keep him in a Phillies uniform until 2016 with a club option for 2017. The deal will net Howard a hefty $125 Million payday.

Scott Van Pelt talked to Rob Neyer on Wednesday about the players that they would take and sign to a long term deal over Howard. The obvious names such as Albert Pujols were being thrown around, but the two ended up with a list of over 25 names that they would sign over Howard.

I don’t know if these guys are paying close attention but they are talking about a player that has hit at least 45 home runs and drove in at least 136 runs the last four years in a row. There are only three other players in history that have done that in Babe Ruth, Sammy Sosa, and Ken Griffey, Jr.

Naturally, the big knock on him is his defense and his high strikeout totals. While they are cause for concern, Howard is a player that every manager in the NL has to coach around whenever they face the Phillies. In addition, the Phillies have been to back-to-back World Series’. They won it all in 2008 and Howard is a big part of that team. Baseball isn’t like a free poker game where you have a new winner every time. It takes strong teams to win and when you have something that works, don’t mess with it. Howard fits in the Phillies puzzle and they hope to have him as a big piece of that puzzle for a long time to come.

For those that thing the contract is too big, or too much money, think about your favorite player that after a few years got traded or left during free agency and wound up with a new club. Ryan Howard is now poised to potentially play his entire career with the Phillies. That is good for not only the Phillies franchise, but good for Major League Baseball as a whole.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: MLB | Tagged: MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Howard, Ryan Howard contract |

Fantasy Baseball Slow Starters – Hitters

18 March 2009

Here is a list of guys who typically get off to slow starts. If you draft them, be patient. If you didn’t take them, they may good buy low candidates.

Ryan Howard - Howard is a beast so he probably isn’t going to come available, but don’t be discouraged by a slow start. Last year year he hit .234 with 28 HRs and 84 RBI in 96 games before the All-Star break and .276 with 20 & 62 in the last 66 games. For his career he hits 47 points higher after the break.

Ichiro Suzuki – Ichiro hit .252 in March & April last year and .323 the rest of the way. His April swoon may seem uncharacteristic for Ichiro, but he is a .294 hitter in April and a .337 hitter thereafter. If he struggles early, maybe you can surgically remove him from somebody’s team.

Bobby Abreu - You may assume a slow start is due to relocation, but remember he hit .269 with just 3 HRs in 28 April games last year. Historically, April is his worst month. He has a .282 average and 31 HRs and 154. He has at least 40 HRs & 170 RBI in every other Month but September (35 & 163). Plus, he hits .303 in the other months. He could be primed to take off someone’s hands if he starts slow.

Robinson Canó - Canó hit .246 before the break with 36 Runs and 38 RBI in 93 games and .307 with 34 R & RBIs in 66 games after the break. He was especially bad in April hitting .151. He always starts slow. For his career he hits .257 in April and May and .322 the rest of the month. This trend is probably too well known to exploit, but it’s worth a shot.

Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman started off March/April hitting .233. He hit .301 the rest of the way. Last year wasn’t atypical for Zimmerman. For his career he has hit .237 in March/April and .292 in the other months. Zimmerman is another one that you may actually be able to get if he starts slow again.

Freddy Sánchez – Freddy hit .226 with 37 Runs before the break in 87 games. In the last 58 games he hit .346 with 38 Runs. Historically April is his worst month with a .250 average, compared to .306 from May to September. He has 20 Runs and 23 RBI in his career compared to and average of 56 Runs and 39 RBI in the other months. He may be available on your waiver wire come May to give you a little shot in the arm in the Average and Runs department.

Jhonny Peralta - Before June Peralta his .233 with 19 RBI in 48 games (0.40 RBI per game). After June he hit .294 with 70 RBI in 106 games (0.66 RBI per game). In 85 career April games he’s hit .226 compared to .274 in other months.

Carlos Peña – Before June Peña hit .220 in 55 games. He hit .266 the rest of the way. Historically he has hit .229 before June and .262 in the other months.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: Bobby Abreu, Carlos Peña, fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball strategy, fantasy baseball tips, Freddy Sanchez, Ichiro Suzuki, Jhonny Peralta, MLB, Robinson Cano, Ryan Howard, Ryan Zimmerman |

Is Ryan Howard a 1st Round Pick?

27 February 2009

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

When you think slugger, the first name that should pop into your head is Ryan Howard. He is the premier power hitter in baseball today, plain and simple. Over the past three seasons he’s hit 153 HR while driving in 431 RBI and scoring 303 runs. Those are some very impressive numbers, but are they first round impressive?

He seems to be sitting right on the border, with an ADP of 11.21 according to Mock Draft Central. He’s been drafted as low as #18, so it’s obvious that not everyone views him as a viable option that early. In the first Rotoprofessor Mock Draft, he was selected with the #18 pick. In the second he went #11.

So, which is right? Is the risk of a low average enough to scare owners off?

I know there is a philosophy out there that the only way you draft someone in the first round is if he helps you in all five categories. Well, Howard would be crossed off the list right off the bat, as he offers absolutely no speed. He has 2 SB in 4 attempts during his career.

There are a few 1B who steal some bases, like Lance Berkman (18). Even Albert Pujols chips in with 7 last season, so he not only doesn’t help you there, he hurts you.

As for the average, we are going to have to take a little bit of a closer look. Here are his averages over the past three seasons:

2006: .313
2007: .268
2008: .251

A huge decline, obviously. How does the BABIP translate? Let’s take a look:

2006: .363
2007: .336
2008: .289

I know he strikes out a ton, and that’s simply not going to change. He also deposits a lot of balls over the fence, another fact that isn’t going to change. Last season, in his 610 AB, he put the ball in play 363 times. Let’s contrast that with someone like Pujols, who put the ball in play 433 times. That’s a big difference, and by putting the ball in play less, there is more volatility in his BABIP.

His luck almost has to be better then it was last season, meaning he certainly can rebound and put in a good average. I’m not going to count on that, but it is not unthinkable to see him posting a BABIP in the .330 – .340 range, which clearly would raise his average back to .275ish.

Is that an elite number? Far from it as 14 players eligible at 1B had a higher average then that last season. Still, I know I’d be a lot more comfortable drafting him knowing that his average would not be crippling to my team.

He’s not among the elite in runs scored, but given the number of HR he hits, it is very easy to project him out for 100 runs once again. When you are driving yourself in almost 50 times, it doesn’t take much. Last season, only 5 1B scored over 100 runs, with just Berkman scoring more then Howard. That’s certainly a big help.

Only Adam Dunn was less then 10 HR away from Howard last season, and he hit just 40 compared to Howard’s 48. No player was within 15 RBI of Howard, with Josh Hamilton finishing a distant second at 130 compared to Howard’s 146.

Can we expect that same type of dominance form Howard? No, of course not. In 2007 he finished 20 RBI behind A-Rod, as well as 7 HR behind him. It is very easy to say that one player, any player, is going to post a remarkable season, out-performing Howard. It is very possible, but what we do know is that Howard is going to be right there among the league leaders, likely in the Top 2 or 3 in each category at worst.

How many other players can you say that about? Outside of Alex Rodriguez, there really isn’t one is there? Albert Pujols is great, but he is not likely to be at the top of the HR leader board. Adam Dunn has the power, but hasn’t shown the ability to drive in runs at a pace resembling the top performers in the league.

Howard is a special player in the power department, one that certainly gives you an advantage. I know the average is a concern, and given his skills it is a number that is going to be very volatile. The extreme shift could be playing a role, but that’s an argument I’m not buying. With a little bit of luck, the number is going to be usable.

The advantage he gives you in two categories is just too much for me to ignore and he is certainly a player that I would draft if I’m selecting at the very bottom of Round 1. The only other player in baseball that you could say, without a shadow of a doubt, that he’s going to be in the Top 3 of both HR and RBI is A-Rod and we all know he’s going to be gone by Pick #3. I just can’t let get past me if I have the chance.

What about you? Would you consider Howard a first round selection or would you be more comfortable taking him in the second round?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, NFL | Tagged: fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball draft tips, MLB, Ryan Howard, ryan howard average draft position |

World Series Fantasy Baseball Players of the Day – Game 4

27 October 2008

Game 4
Ryan Howard went 3 for 5 with 2 Runs, 2 HRs, 5 RBI, and a Walk. Jimmy Rollins went 3 for 5 with 3 Runs and 2 Doubles. You knew these two weren’t going to be kept down forever. Jayson Werth went 2 for 4 with 2 Runs, a Double, a HR, 2 RBI, and a Walk. Pedro Feliz went 2 for 4 with an RBI. Joe Blanton, Carl Crawford, and Eric Hinske each hit a solo HR. Chase Utley walked twice and scored 2 Runs. Pat Burrell had an RBI and a Walk.

Joe Blanton not only hit a HR, but he pitched well too. He allowed 2 Runs on 4 Hits in 6 Innings with 7 Ks to earn the Win and give the Phillies a 3-1 series lead. Ryan Madson pitched 1-1/3 Innings of scoreless relief with 3 Ks. J.C. Romero struck out two in a scoreless Inning to finish the game.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: fantasy baseball, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Blanton, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, playoff fantasy baseball, Ryan Howard, Tampa Bay Rays, World Series, World Series fantasy baseball, World Series Game 4 |

Playoffs Fantasy Baseball Players of the Day – 10/15/08

16 October 2008

Wednesday, October 15th
Ryan Howard went 3 for 4 with a Run, an RBI, and a Walk. Jimmy Rollins went 1 for 4 with 2 Runs, a HR, a Walk, and a SB. Manny Ramirez went 2 for 3 with a HR and a Walk. James Loney and Matt Kemp each had 2 Hits. Chase Utley scored 2 Runs. Pat Burrell had an RBI.

Cole Hamels gave up 1 Run on 5 Hits in 7 Innings with 5 Runs to close the door on the Dodgers and send the Phillies to the World Series. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge each pitched a scoreless Inning to protect the lead. James McDonald threw 2 scoreless Innings of relief with 2 Ks. Hong-Chih Kuo pitched 1 scoreless Inning of relief.

Check me out at the Alltop.com ”online magazine rack”.

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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: Cole Hamels, fantasy baseball, Jimmy Rollins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Manny Ramirez, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, playoff fantasy baseball, Ryan Howard, World Series |

Midseason MLB Lester Awards

16 July 2008

With the break in the action for the All-Star Game, it’s time to take a look at the midseason award winners. It’s also a time to reflect on my preseason predictions.

American League
AL East: Boston – Tampa gave Boston a scare, but I think the Champs hold them off.
Preseason Prediction: Boston
AL Central: Chicago White Sox – If it weren’t Detroit, I would have guessed Cleveland. Guess again.
Preseason Prediction: Detroit
AL West: Anaheim – They are who we thought they were.
Preseason Prediction: Anaheim
AL Wildcard: Tampa Bay – They have been a great story, but I think NY finds a way to beat them out.
Preseason Prediction: New York Yankees

National League
NL East: Philadelphia – They’ve let the Mets creep back. Should be a good race.
Preseason Prediction: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
Preseason Prediction: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Arizona - I wouldn’t be proud if I were them.
Preseason Prediction: Arizona
NL Wildcard: St. Louis – This has been one of Tony LaRussa’s most impressive jobs.
Preseason Prediction: Philadelphia

Preseason Playoff Predictions
Boston Red Sox over Anaheim. The Sox have their number.
Detroit over New York. Pitching and hitting are too strong for Detroit.
Boston over Detroit. Beckett dominates once again

Mets over Cubs. Still not this year. Johan is unbelievable.
Arizona over Phillies. Arizona’s pitching overpowers Philly’s hitting.
Mets over Arizona. Great pitching matchups, but Pedro wills the Mets to the Series.

World Series
Boston Red Sox over the New York Mets. Bill Buckner can really breath easier now.

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton – 95 RBI. Seriously.
Preseason Prediction: A-Rod

AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee – 12-2, 2.31 ERA, 106 Ks. Unbelievable.
Preseason Prediction: Josh Beckett

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria – He’s lived up to the hype.
Preseason Prediction: Evan Longoria

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon – Tampa Bay is baseball’s best story
Preseason Prediction: Terry Francona
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Cliff Lee – From a Minor League stint to All-Star Starter
Preseason Prediction: Travis Hafner
AL Batting Crown: Ian Kinsler – He’s on fire.
Preseason Prediction: Ichiro S
AL Home Run Title: Grady Sizemore – Doesn’t he hit leadoff?
Preseason Prediction: A-Rod
AL RBI Title: A-Rod. Josh Hamilton – Baseball’s second best story.
Preseason Prediction: A-Rod

NL MVP: Lance Berkman – .347, 22 HRs, 73 RBI.
Preseason Prediction: Ryan Howard

NL Cy Young: Edison Volquez – 12-3, 2.29 ERA, 126 Ks. Amazingly keeping the Josh Hamilton trade somewhat respectable.
Preseason Prediction: Johan Santana

NL Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto – Leading rookies in HR, RBI, and Average. Oh yeah, and he plays Catcher.
Preseason Prediction: Joey Votto

NL Manager of the Year: Tony LaRussa – With apologies to Lou Piniella, but nobody has done more with less than Tony LaRussa.
Preseason Prediction: Willie Randolph (Yikes)
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Kerry Wood – Gotta feel good for him. Tied for 2nd in Saves in NL.
Preseason Prediction: Randy Johnson
NL Batting Crown: Chipper Jones – .376. Are you kidding me?
Preseason Prediction: Chase Utley
NL Home Run Title: Ryan Howard – Like I said, he’s a beast.
Preseason Prediction: Ryan Howard
NL RBI Title: Ryan Howard – See above.
Preseason Prediction: Ryan Howard