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Here’s some sit and start advice as you set your lineups for Week 17 of the 2010 NFL season.
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Quarterbacks
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Start:
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Eli and the Giants have had their backs against the wall before and they’ve responded. In a must win, with Hakeem Nicks out or limited, I just get the feeling Peyton’s brother will come up with a big performance. Eli quietly has 30 touchdown passes on the year. I think he adds to it against the Redskins 31st ranked pass defense.
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Sit:
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
As tough as it is to sit the likely league MVP, especially against the Bills, he’s too big of a risk to use in a championship game. The Patriots have nothing to play for, and while his three touchdown passes last week were nice, he only threw for 140 yards. This is precisely why leagues should wrap up in Week 16.
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Running Backs
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Start:
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
Perhaps it’s a little late for Mathews to reward fantasy owners, but he should do so this week against Denver’s 31st ranked run defense (153.9 yards allowed per game). They have also yielded the most rushing touchdowns (23). With Matt Tolbert (neck, shoulder) banged up, Mathews should lead the way.
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Sit:
Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens shut down Peyton Hillis last week and will look to do the same this week against Benson. Baltimore ranks fourth with just 94.2 rushing yards allowed per game and tied for first, coincidentally with fellow AFC North mates Pittsburgh and Cleveland, with just five rushing touchdowns allowed.

Happy Anniversary Mom & Dad!

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning:  Winner Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Loser Beanie15.3, LT 18.3
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson:  Incomplete Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2:  Ocho 8.9, Marshall (actual +2) 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek:  Loser Finley 8.0, Celek18.1
SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles:  Loser Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks:  2-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 37-39-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-12
Overall: 43-51-1

Week 17 Picks

Jay Cutler over Tony Romo
Cutler is coming off a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD to INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones
I’m going with the Rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 match-up. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s 2nd ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th ranked run defense (125.7 ypg) while Ricky should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs.

Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco
Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn them deep. Meanwhile Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

Steve Breaston over Miles Austin
Breaston faces Green Bay, who despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, have allowed 28 passing TDs. That ranks them 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

SUPER STRETCH

Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)
I suspect that Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) with 16 rushing TDs allowed. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s #1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

We’ve already looked at the players who could struggle this week (click here for article). Now I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough match-ups.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
If you are in a league that plays the season out, Orton is a decent option for Week 17. He takes on Kansas City, who’s in the bottom half with 22 passing TDs allowed. Brandon Marshall was quiet last week against the Eagles, for look for him to break out as the Broncos vie for a playoff spot.

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
The Titans playoff hopes were dashed by the Chargers last week, but VY is still playing for next year. Luckily for him, he gets to close out with Seattle who has one of the league’s worst passing defenses giving up 262.7 passing yards per game and 26 passing TDs.

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Smith is another resurection project that should finish the season on a high note. He takes on the lowly Rams, who have allowed 246.1 passing yards per game and 21 TDs.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
Cutler will try to salvage a forgettable 2009 season with a big game against the Lions, who are 31st with 274.9 passing yards allowed, and dead last with 31 passing TDs given up.

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the match-ups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

First off, avoid Colts starters like the plague. I’m sure you gathered that already from last week. San Diego has nothing to play for, so be leery of using their starters.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Romo has seemed to put the December Blues behind him, but with the division up for grabs, you can’t help but remember the egg he laid in Philadelphia to end last season. He’s playing at home this time, which should help, but keep in mind he averages just 237.9 passing yards at home. Plus, he has just one TD pass in each of his past two games.

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
Houston jumped out on Miami last week, which took Ricky out of the game. Pittsburgh will attempt to do the same this week. They also have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league allowing just 89.3 yards per game and six rushing TDs.

Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, RBs, New York Giants
The Giants have pretty much mailed it in after their embarrassing loss to Carolina. Jacobs won’t likely play as he’s banged up and the Giants are out of it. Bradshaw will get the bulk of the work, but faces a Vikings team sporting a stingy run defense and still jockeying for playoff positioning.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Ocho becomes Darrelle Revis’ latest victim. If I were him, I wouldn’t waste my time coming up with a TD celebration for this week.

Dwyane Bowe & Chris Chambers, WRs, Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are reeling, but they are still tough against the pass allowing just 201.0 yards per game. Matt Cassel has struggled on the road averaging just 185.3 yards and 1 TD.

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Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Seneca Wallace - Seneca had a decent showing against the Jets in the snow.  The weather and Arizona’s Defense are much more fantasy friendly.  Wallace and Company will try to send Holmgren off a Winner.
Stat Line:  24 of 43 for 250 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 carries for 14 yards

RB
Ryan Grant - Detroit makes everybody look a little better than they are.  Heck, New Orleans had four first half rushing TDs against them.  Ryan Grant should have a nice game against them as Detroit finishes off their imperfect season.
Stat Line:  19 carries for 106 yards, 3 catches for 23 yards

Larry Johnson - LJ continues a strong second half surge.  He should pile up the yards against Cincinnati in what could be his last game in a Chiefs uniform.
Stat Line:  10 carries for 18 yards

WR
Steve Breaston - Arizona will use Seattle as a chance to right their wrongs heading into the playoffs.  If Boldin isn’t 100% he won’t go.  Breaston needs 85 yards for a 1000 yard season.  I can see him reaching that mark.
Stat Line:  5 catches for 91 yards, TD

Santonio Holmes - Holmes has three TDs in his last four games.  Against Cleveland there is a good chance he scores again.
Stat Line:  3 catches for 31 yards

TE
Gijon Robinson - With Indy already in, Gijon could get some more work in order to keep Dallas Clark healthy for the playoffs.  He’s had eleven catches for 128 yards in his past three weeks.
Stat Line:  Did not catch a pass.

K
Mason Crosby - In your fantasy Super Bowl, why not go with a guy who is facing the Lions.  He should be good for 4+ PATs and a FG.
Stat Line:  1 FG, 4 PATs

DEF
Green Bay - See above.
Stat Line:  1 Sack, 2 INTs