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Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Hasselbeck has the good fortune of facing Detroit’s 27th ranked passing defense. What’s worse is they have allowed 18 passing TDs, which is one behind Tennessee for the league lead.

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard squares off with Kansas City’s 28th ranked pass defense at home. In three home starts Garrard has averaged 313.3 passing yards and 32 rushing yards. He also has 5 passing TDs. On the road he’s averaging just 165.8 passing yards and 16.5 rushing yards. His lone rushing TD came on the road, but all of his passing TDs came at home.

Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I don’t love JJ this week, but he does face the 21st ranked Detroit run D at home. Jones averages a respectable 78.3 total yards in four home games with 2 TDs versus a 44 total yards and 1 TD in road games. continue reading »

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Kyle Orton over Eli Manning: Loser Orton 8.7, Eli 18.5
Steven Jackson over Michael Turner: Winner S-Jax, 22.6 Turner 21.1
Kevin Smith over Ray Rice: Loser Smith 9.4, Rice 16.8
Mike Sims-Walker over Greg Jennings: Loser MSW 0.9, Jennings 14.8
Brandon Marshall over Larry Fitzgerald: Loser Marshall 2.4, Fitz 6.6
SS: Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton over DeAngelo Williams:
Forte Winner 24.1
Chris Johnson Winner 35.9
Steve Slaton Loser 1.1
DeAngelo Williams 15.8

Regular Picks:  1-4
Super Stretch Picks: 2-1
Overall:  3-5

Season Record
Regular Picks: 17-22
Super Stretch Picks:  3-7
Overall: 20-29

Week 9 Picks

Quarterback

Matt Hasselbeck over Tony Romo
Hasselbeck should have field day against Detroit at home. Meanwhile, Romo takes on the Eagles in Philadelphia, which will be a hostile environment to say the least. They’ll bring the heat and force Romo into mistakes. continue reading »

Before we get started, click here for my Week 9 NFL Picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

With the bye weeks upon us, you can’t necessarily sit the guys on this list unless you have great depth, but expect a drop in production.

Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans
Schaub has been outstanding this year, but faces a very tough this week against the Colts in Indianapolis. Dwight Freeney and company attack opposing quarterbacks, which will pressure Schaub into making a quick decision, which could throw his timing off.

The last time he faced them he threw for 236 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs, and was sacked 3 times. Schaub also has to face them without Owen Daniels, who is lost for the year with a knee injury.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
I know he’s looked like a different Quarterback in recent weeks, thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin, but he’s facing the Eagles’ attacking defense in a hostile environment. Here’s how Tony has fared against attacking defenses this year:

- Week 2 vs. NYG:  13 for 29, 127 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs
- Week 4 @ DEN:  25 for 42, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 1 Fumble

Plus, we all know what happened in Week 17 last year in Philadelphia when he went 21 of 39 for 183 yards, an INT, and two fumbles.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Just when it looked like Forte had figured things out, he draws Arizona, one of the toughest run defenses in the league, despite being shredded by the Panthers last week. The Cardinals have more trouble stopping the pass, so Cutler will be very active.

If Forte doesn’t pick up yards in the passing game, his fantasy owners are in trouble. Also, Chicago’s defense has struggled at times, which could make them even more reliant on Cutler.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers
Mendenhall has a tough test coming out of the bye as he faces Denver, who has been tough against the run this year.  They are playing in Denver to further complicate matters.

This figures to be a knock-down drag-out battle where yards are hard to come by. As a matter of fact, I don’t recommend Knowshon Moreno for the Broncos either.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Smith had a nice little run going, but will have a battle on his hands as Carolina takes on New Orleans. He’ll have to rely on a banged up Delhomme or a very green Matt Moore.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

Bye weeks are here.  I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with byes, an injury, or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
David Garrard - Cincinnati is decent in terms of yardage allowed ranking 8th with 191.1 ypg.  However, they are 30th with 13 TD passes allowed.  That fits David Garrard’s M.O. for the week.  I don’t expect a huge yardage day out of him, but I would expect multiple scores.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran one in as well.
Stat Line:  23 of 38 for 229 yards, INT, 6 carries for 23 yards

RB
Kevin Faulk - For some reason I think the Patriots will rely on their Old Reliable Kevin Faulk this week as they take on the rival Indianapolis Colts.  Faulk will pick up yards both on the ground and through the air. 
Stat Line: 10 carries for 60 yards, 5 catches for 38 yards 

Tim Hightower - It appears that Hightower’s role in the Offense will increase.  He is always a threat to score, and with additional carries, he could finally put up some respectable yardage.  He’s facing St. Louis, so a nice fantasy day could be in store for the big man.
Stat Line: 22 carries for 109 yards, TD

WR
Greg Camarillo - Miami faces Denver this week, who is 28th in the league with 240 passing yards allowed per game.  Camarillo is averaging 4.5 receptions per game.  They will probably be playing from behind so I expect Camarillo to get his hands on 7 or 8 passes for about 70 yards.  He could even find his way into the endzone, which would make him that much sweeter.
Stat Line:  11 catches for 111 yards

Reggie Williams - After catching 10 TDs last year, Williams waited until Week 8 to catch his first one this year.  He was streaky last year catching three TDs in four weeks on two occasions and four straight games with a TD to finish the year.  He faces Cincinnati this week so it’s not unlikely that he catches one of Garrard’s aforementiond TD passes.
Stat Line:  2 catches for 12 yards.  Sorry.

TE
Donald Lee - Think the Packers noticed that Dallas Clark scored two TDs vs. Tennessee on MNF?  I do.  He has just four catches to past two games.  My guess is Green Bay tries to get their big man going this week, especially if Ryan Grant struggle at the goal line.
Stat Line:  3 catches for 22 yards.  Sorry.   

K
Dan Carpenter - The teams that allow the most FGs are either on bye (NO, SF, SD) or they are facing the top scoring kickers (Carney, Gostkowski, Akers).  I had to dig a little deeper, but I found Dan Carpenter who faces Denver.  The Broncos have allowed 16 FGs (23rd in league) and 59 points (21st).  Carpenter is 8 for 10 on FGs and 17 for 17 on PATs.
Stat Line:  4 FGs, 2 PATs 

DEF
Arizona - The Cardinals face St. Louis, who despite looking better in recent weeks, has allowed 24 Sacks (27th in the league).  That doesn’t bold well for them since Arizona is tied for 6th in the league with 19 Sacks.  They should be able to get Bulger to the ground, as well as force some turnovers.
Stat Line:  2 Sacks, 2 INTs, Fumble, TD

Check back after the games to see an updated stat line.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Matt Cassel (19.55) over Eli Manning (13.95) WHICH I WON.    
Thomas Jones (12.0) beat Michael Turner (5.8) WHICH I WON.
Willis McGahee (11.7) over Brandon Jacobs (5.3) WHICH I WON.
Santana Moss (20.0) over Reggie Wayne (2.9) WHICH I WON.
Isaac Bruce (4.9) over Torry Holt (2.8) WHICH I WON.
Super Stetch:  Terrell Owens (3.3) beat Malcom Floyd (2.1) WHICH I LOST. 

Regular Picks:  5-0
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1  
Overall:  5-1  
Breakdown: QB: 1-0, RB: 2-0, WR:  2-1

Quarterback
 
Kyle Orton over Aaron Rodgers
I’ll pit these two NFC North QBs against one another this week.  I’m taking Orton in a cupcake matchup vs. Detroit.  He should be able to outscore Rodgers vs. Tennessee.  Rodgers is the highest scoring QB that hasn’t had a bye yet, but Tennessee has allowed the fewest points per game this year.

Running Backs
 
Michael Turner over Clinton Portis
Last week Michael Turner continued the trend of not performing vs. good teams.  The flip side of that trend is his dominance against bad teams.  Oakland is bad.  Burner Turner should light them up.  I’m so convinced I’m taking on the top RB in the league.  His matchup against Pittsburgh helps the cause, but he’s had at least 121 yards on the ground the past five games. 

 
Earnest Graham over Brandon Jacobs
It’s Graham’s turn to abuse the Chiefs.  He may not crack the century mark, but I would expect him to reach paydirt at least once.  Meanwhile Jacobs goes up against Dallas who is 11th in Run D with 95.5 yards allowed per game.  Plus, they’re tied for 13th with 6 rushing TDs allowed.

Wide Receiver
 
Donnie Avery over Calvin Johnson
I’ll take Lisa Danhof’s Ahead of the Curve pick Donnie Avery against Arizona in what should be a shootout over Megatron.  Avery has become the go-to-guy the past few weeks for the Rams.  Johnson faces Chicago, which should present a challenge for young Mr. Orlovsky.

  
Devin Hester over Terrell Owens
T.O. barely beat my Stretch pick of Malcom Floyd last week.  I’ve got him in my sights still.  This time I’m turning Devin Hester on him (I don’t take any points he scores in the return game).  Hester could be utilized in the Wildcat Formation, which will add to his value.  Plus he faces Detroit, which is always fun.  T.O. plays the Giants with Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger at the helm.  You know the G-Men are going to bring the pass rush making it hard on the ex-Viking QBs.         

SUPER STRETCH
 
Tim Hightower over Jamal Lewis
I’ll go with the guy from Police Academy over the guy who’s been incarcerated.  Hightower squares off against St. Louis.  He’s all-or-nothing with a high of 37 rushing yards.  He’s scored in five of the Cardinals’ seven games.  He may start playing a bigger role on offense as Edge appears done.  Jamal is going up against his ex-mates.  Not inmates, but former teammates in Baltimore.  The present a difficult matchup for Jamal.

Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers is going down to Tennessee to face the Titans.  He’s coming off a bye, which should help his ailing shoulder.  His pride may be hurting when he gets down with one of the league’s best Defensive units.

Running Backs
Jamal Lewis - There is the revenge factor for Jamal, but facing Baltimore’s Run D is no easy task, especially when your Offense isn’t clicking.  Jamal scored both times he faced Baltimore last year so you know they have this game circled on their calendars.

Thomas Jones - After facing Cincinnati, Oakland, and Kansas City, TJ finally faces a Defense with a pulse.  He goes up against the Bills in Buffalo.  A fourth straight monster games does not seem likely.

Wide Receiver
Santana Moss - Talk about your polar opposites.  One week after facing Detroit, the Redskins take on the Steelers.  Life won’t be quite as simple this week for Santana, Campbell, Cooley, and company.  The only Redskin I’m not downgrading is Clinton Portis.  He’s been tearing everybody apart.

Terrell Owens - Either T.O. is going to have to rely on a QB old enough to be his Dad in Brad Johnson or Brooks Bollinger, who didn’t look the part of an NFL QB last year with Minnesota against the defending Super Bowl Champions.  The Giants will bring the heat early and often making it difficult for Dallas to get in a rhythm.  Things could get ugly in Big D.

Quarterback
Drew Brees and Philip Rivers will leave teams hurting this weekend.  If you’re fortunate enough to face their owners, good for you.  Some teams may be relying on Jake Delhomme, although he’ll be more easily replaced.  I don’t think many are utilizing J.T. O’Sullivan anymore unless you’re in a Salary Cap or two-QB league.  Kyle Orton should produce vs. Detroit making me further eat crow for mocking him before.  Denver is bad so Chad Pennington could be a decent play.  Jeff Garcia plays Kansas City, who everybody knows is garbage.

Running Back
Frank Gore and LT (notice who’s name came first) will also leave teams hurting.  DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart take away your depth.  Deuce McAllister and Pierre Thomas probably won’t be missed much.  Earnest Graham and possibly Warrick Dunn could be used vs. KC.  You can dust the Edge off and play him vs. St. Louis.  Tim Hightower is the better play though.  Ricky Williams is a possibility vs. Denver if he doesn’t get baked in Mile High City on Saturday.

Wide Receiver
Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Isaac Bruce, Chris Chambers, and Vincent Jackson will have to be replaced in fantasy lineups.  Eddie Royal should produce against Miami.  Kevin Walter is a decent play against Minnesota.  Derrick Mason should have a nice game against Cleveland.

Tight End
Antonio Gates and Jeremy Shockey will be missed the most.  You may have to find an alternative for Vernon Davis, Billy Miller, and Dante Rosario.