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After his second straight three-hit game, St. Louis Cardinals center fielder is hitting .404. He is wedged in the Cardinals’ two-hole between Rafael Furcal and Matt Holliday.
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Furcal is off to a solid start himself, hitting .310, and even though Holliday is struggling hitting .222, he still provides solid protection for Jay.
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Jay is sporting a sweet .954 OPS, thanks to two early home runs. He hit ten last year, or one every 45.5 at bats. This year he’s one every 26.0. He won’t mistake anyone for Mark McGwire or Albert Pujols, but the early power is nice for fantasy owners. At that rate, with 500+ at bats he could hit 20 HRs.
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Jay is also running more than he has in the past. He stole just six bases last year and two in 287 at bats as a rookie. This year, through 52 at bats, he has already swiped three bags. He could easily hit the 20 mark for stolen bases as well if he continues his pace.
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Jay’s average should not come as a surprise. He hit .300 as a rookie and .297 last year. While I don’t think a batting title is in order, he should continue to hit at a healthy clip.
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He’ll likely give you mediocre run and RBI production. He has scored seven runs and drove in another eight. Going by that ratio, and assuming he can get to 500 at bats, he would score 67 and drive in 77 more. Again, nothing to write home about, but with a nice average and solid numbers in the other four categories, Jay does have some fantasy value.
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He is currently owned in less than a third of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. If you need outfield help, he’s not a bad option.
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To say Adam Wainwright is off to a brutal start would be a serious understatement. After three starts he is 0-3 with a bloated 9.88 ERA and a robust 1.61 WHIP. While I didn’t expect him to return to the 2.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP of 2010 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, I didn’t expect him to be this bad.
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His velocity is down, and that could certainly play into his rough start. I’m not sure he gets back to his 2010 level anytime soon, but as he builds arm strength he should be hitting 90 regularly on the gun. Along with the increased arm strength will come confidence. That is probably equally as important as the physical aspect.
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Wainwright has been knocked around by the Brewers, Cubs, and Reds in his three starts. Opening with three losses against divisional foes could be weighing on him. He gets a chance to turn it around with another start against the Cubs on Tuesday. Adam should be able to get in the win column as the Cards are clearly the better team. The Cubs are struggling as usual and the Cards have been nearly flawless in non-Wainwright starts.
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Despite the struggles he is still making bats miss. In 13-2/3 innings he has recorded fourteen strikeouts. If he weren’t striking batters out a high rate I might be more concerned, but my gut says he’ll turn things around.
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It is definitely too early to completely hit the panic button. I can see shelving him until he gets his groove back. I wouldn’t drop him outright or sell low on him.
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Rafael Furcal is on fire to start the season, ranking among the league leaders in batting average and stolen bases in the early going. Can he keep it up?
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With a career average that is +.280 and 300+ stolen bases, you know that he can produce. He has nine seasons with twenty or more stolen bases and five seasons (or partial seasons) that he has hit .290 or better. Obviously if he can stay healthy, he has the pedigree.
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That has been his biggest issue though. Since 2008 he has only played in 100 games one year (2009). Over the past two seasons he has missed 140 games and over the past four seasons he has missed an average of 69.5 games per year.
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At 34 he isn’t a lock to remain on the field. If he can, however, he should continue to be a solid contributor.
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Even last year, where he struggled mightily producing a career low .231 batting average (he had never hit below .269) he was remarkably better in St. Louis. After hitting .197 in 37 games for the Dodgers, he improved 58 points with the Cardinal.
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Furcal has found a comfort level in St. Louis so there is little reason to think he won’t be able to produce.
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Rafael could be available in your league. He is owned in a little over half of Yahoo! and close to nearly three-quarters of ESPN leagues. He is best utilized in the middle infielder slot when applicable, but he can also be used in the starting shortstop role.
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As you would expect with a player of his age and injury background you’ll want to keep good tabs on Furcal. Play him while he’s hot and healthy, but be ready if the other foot drops.
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When Adam Wainwright went down for the season, the Cardinals knew they would need to rely even heavier on their other three stars. So far they only have Matt Holliday running on all cylinders. Albert Pujols is hitting in the .260’s with very little power and Chris Carpenter only has one win as we approach late May.
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Conventional wisdom indicates Albert will turn things around and it is doubtful anyone willing to sell him at a discount, but Carpenter could be a candidate you can pick up in the bargain bin.
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When healthy, Carpenter is a proven winner and Cy-Young contender. Drafting Carpenter has always been an injury risk, not a performance risk. This year, Carpenter has struggled. Through May 22nd, he sits at 1-4 with a 4.88 ERA and a surprising 1.48 WHIP. Traditionally among the league leaders in WHIP, the high number is the key to his recent struggles and also provides a clue to a rebound in the near future. His BB/9
is 2.4, slightly higher than usual, but the exact same as last year when he won 16 games.
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The difference is his H/9 which stands at 10.9, his highest number since 2007, when he only pitched one game before undergoing Tommy John surgery. His career H/9 is at 9 so it seems the hitters are getting lucky on him and sure enough they have a BABIP of .343, compared to a lifetime .301. As the season progresses you should expect a correction.
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With a strikeout rate in-line with career average’s, Carpenter’s only other concern is run support. Although the Cardinals have the highest team batting average and are second in runs scored, Carpenter’s run support stands in the middle of the pack among MLB pitchers.
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Taking everything into account as the year goes on you should expect Carpenter’s ERA and WHIP to fall and his run support to climb. That should lead to more wins. The time to buy Chris Carpenter on the cheap is now.
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Kyle McClellan enters the week tied for the league lead with six wins. He’s 6-1 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his nine starts. Even in his three poor outings he was able to go at least five innings and limit the damage to four or five runs. That’s important because he doesn’t completely tax the Cardinals’ bullpen and still gives them a chance to win. For your fantasy team, it’s not the outcome you were looking for, but it sure beats taking the lumps over three or four innings.
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One of the bumps can be excused. He gave up four runs in six innings in Cincinnati. That was his lone start that week so he should have been on your bench in both daily and weekly leagues. If you used him there, you were asking for trouble.
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We know what he’s already done. We need to know if he will continue to shine. Obviously nobody knows the answer to that, but we can take a look at the numbers to see what we can infer.
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McClellan was 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA in five April starts. He is 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in four April starts. The consistency has been there. He has averaged 91.4 pitches per start, with six in the 90-95 range, which adds to his consistency. You basically get two runs in six innings when he takes the mound.
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McClellan’s success isn’t predicated on luck. He has a .265 BABIP, which is actually higher than the .231 he posted last year and .264 from 2009. Solid numbers for a player with a 51.6 ground ball percentage.
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McClellan keeps the ball in the park, having allowed fewer than a home run (0.94) per nine innings. He had one three home run game, which was the game that he should have been on your bench when he started in Cincinnati. In his remaining eight starts he’s allowed one home run in three games. The other five he did not give up the long ball.
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He only issues 2.8 walks per nine innings. If he’s not giving out free passes or allowing home runs he can keep the damage to a minimum.
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McClellan is not without his warts though. He strikes out just 4.37 batters per nine innings. He has three or fewer Ks in six of his nine starts, plus another one with just four strikeouts. His season high is seven, and that came back on April 5th.
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That doesn’t mean he can’t continue to be successful. It’s just something to keep in mind when he has a tough match-up. If you can salvage a poor outing with a solid strikeout total, at least you have something to take away from it. Just be smart and use him when he has favorable match-ups, like this week when he faces the Padres in San Diego.
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Albert Pujols is hitting .241. He has seven home runs, but his slugging percentage is at .438. He has just one double on the year. He is dealing with a minor hamstring strain and the weight of the contract issue could be weighing on his mind. Not exactly the kind of start that justifies asking for gobs of cash.
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While  Phat Albert is struggling, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman are raking. Pujols has an OPS of .747 while Berkman leads the club at 1.249 and Holliday check in at 1.1137. Even Colby Rasmus (.859) and David Freese (.865 before he went down) were higher.
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Is the machine broken for good? I wouldn’t go that for. He is still only 31 with a lot of baseball ahead of him. Pujols is so consistent that any dip in production is unsettling. Only twice in his ten-year career has his OPS dipped below 1.000. Even then it was .955 and .997. He always hits 30+ HR and drives in 100+ runs. Only twice has he hit below .327 and they were .314 and .312.
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If you look at his career production from month to month, it’s even more consistent.
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April:  1.060 OPS
May:  1.008
June:  1.049
July:  1.006
August:  1.099
September :  1.059
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Even as consistent as Phat Albert is, he is noticeably better in the second half of the season. Before the All-Star Break Albert hits .322 with a 1.029 OPS. After the break he hits .339 with a 1.063 OPS.
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Historically speaking, Albert’s best days of the season have yet to come. Not to mention that common sense says Pujols isn’t going to continue to struggle for long, especially when his compadres are producing.
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Albert has been through slumps before. He hit .267 last July before torching the league by hitting .379 with 11 homer runs and 23 RBI in August.
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If you own Albert, don’t do anything rash. You aren’t going to get fair trade value for him now. You just have to ride it out. Just stay the course and Mr. Consistent will start hitting like he always does. His BABIP is a mere .213, which is 100 points lower than his career mark. His luck and  his health will improve and he’ll be one of the best in the game in no time.
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You can try to buy low on him, but your leaguemate should see that coming a mile away.
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Lance Berkman was hitting .214 on April 10th. He had yet to hit a home run and had just one RBI. He had an OPS of .576. If you dropped him from your team, you are kicking yourself right now, but the move was understandable.
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In his 16 games since Berkman has hit .474 with eight home runs and 21 RBI, bringing his average up to .393 and his OPS to 1.207. You’d be nuts to consider trading  him…or would you?
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He’s not going to continue to pound the ball like that all year. He’s a lifetime .297 hitter that has topped .320 just once. He hit .248 last year and .274 the year before. The power will still be there, but it will also slow. He hasn’t had a 1.000+ OPS since 2006, but he regularly produces a .900 or better OPS. It’s quite evident that last year was just a down year, and not the start of a major decline.
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The point is, while I expect him to continue to be productive, his value will likely never be higher. I’m not saying just give him away, but if you can get a king’s ransom for him, go for it.
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He has dealt with back issues in the past, which can return at any time. Once the back goes, the power is soon to follow. While players have been able to turn back the time and extend their careers, it should not be overlooked that Lance is 35. As the season wears on he will get some rest. He has already sat three of the Cardinals’ 21 games, which is good for 11 percent. If you extrapolate that over the course of the year, he would miss 18 games.
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Sure, he can do plenty of damage in 144 games, but if you can improve your teams based on his hot start, I would certainly entertain quality offers. I’d also dangle him to teams struggling in the power department. Selling high on a 35-year-old isn’t the worst thing you can do.
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