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Before we get started, click here for my Week 11 NFL Picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer:  Loser Flacco 7.75, Palmer 8.7
Tim Hightower over Matt Forte:  Loser Hightower 5.8, Forte 16.1
Laurence Maroney over Ryan Grant:  Winner Maroney 10.6, Grant 8.7
Braylon Edwards over Mike Sims-Walker:  Loser Edwards7.9 , Sims-Walker 10.9
Davone Bess over Justin Gage:  NA Gage didn’t play
SS:  Jamaal Charles over Marshawn Lynch:  Winner Charles 17.7, Lynch 5.5

Regular Picks:  1-3
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 21-26
Super Stretch Picks:  4-8
Overall: 25-34

Week 11 Picks

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford over Joe Flacco
I have news for Mr. Flacco. Your easy game should have been last week against Cleveland. Now you face Indy’s solid pass defense. They have allowed just seven passing TDs on the year, which is tied for second lowest. Oh, and Dwight Freeney failed to record a Sack last week so he’ll be hungry. I’m going with the Rookie in this battle of young QBs as he takes on Cleveland at home.

Running Backs

Jason Snelling over Ryan Grant
Snelling gets the call for the Falcons while Michael Turner is out. First up is the Giants, who have allowed 12 rushing TDs on the year, which is tied for 26th. Meanwhile Grant faces the Niners run defense that is third in the league with just 87.7 yards per game allowed.

Beanie Wells over Marion Barber III
The last time I took Beanie Wells it was a train wreck, but he has been coming on strong and faces St. Louis’ porous run defense. Meanwhile Barber, who is also sharing carries, faces the Redskins, who have allowed just five rushing TDs on the year.

Pierre Garcon over Derrick Mason
I’m putting my stock in the Indy pass defense to help me get back on track. Baltimore will look to slow Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, which should leave the speedy Garcon in single-coverage. Peyton Manning will take advantage of that.

SUPER STRETCH

Jamal Lewis over Thomas Jones
I don’t have much confidence in Cleveland’s offense, but I don’t have much faith in Detroit’s defense either. As Jamal Lewis’ career winds down, I think he has one last hurrah courtesy of the Lions. Thomas Jones has struggled against the Patriots in recent years, and  I suspect the Patriots’ defense is going to go out of their way to support their Coach who is being grilled in the media. The infamous 4th down call was more about his confidence in his offense than a lack of confidence in his defense. Look for the Pats to make a statement.

Happy Birthday Denny!

Before we get started, click here for my Week 11 NFL Picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Matt faces the Giants on the road this week. The G-Men are coming off a bye and will be trying to stop the bleeding of a four-game losing streak. Ryan will likely be without Michael Turner to keep the Giants honest. It could be a long day for Ryan, who historically has struggled against the NFC East.

Games against NFC East:  3
QB Rating:  70.4 (lowest against any division)
Yards per game:  203.3 (second lowest behind NFC North)
TD/INT:  5-5
Fantasy Points per game:  13.36

Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets
Jones travels to New England to take on the Patriots following their embarrassing loss to Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football. Bill Belichick almost always takes away a team’s best weapon, and Jones is that. They held him to 54 yards on 14 carries in their first meeting. In his last five meeting against the Patriots, Jones has averaged just 65.4 total yards and scored just one TD.

Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts
With all of the RB injuries this past weekend, you probably don’t have the luxury to sit a guy like Addai, even if he faces Baltimore’s tough run defense on the road. I know it won’t make up for the Colts leaving Baltimore, but the Ravens would like nothing more than to spoil the Colts’ quest for a perfect season. He’s had mixed results against the Ravens over the past couple of years. In two games he has three total TDs, but just 33.8 total yards and averaged just 2.3 yards per carry.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver Broncos
With Kyle Orton (ankle) either out or limited as the Broncos collide with the Chargers for first place this weekend, Marshall’s value takes a huge hit. Chris Simms is a big step back from Orton, and San Diego has been better than average against the pass. It’s not like Marshall has a good track record against the Broncos, even with a capable QB. In his last five games against them he has a solid 83.4 yards per game against them, but just one TD. Four of those games came with Jay Cutler at the helm, who is an upgrade over Orton, let alone Simms. In his earlier game against the Chargers he was held to 49 yards on five catches.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Just when he was getting on a roll (71.8 yards average over his last five games with 2 TDs), Bowe gets to face Pittsburgh. Though Troy Polamalu will likely miss the game, Tyrone Carter played well in his last start for Ryan Clark. The Steelers held Chad Ochocinco to 29 yards last week and will look to bottle Bowe up as well.

***UPDATE:  Dwayne Bowe suspened four games for postive PED test***

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

The byes are gone, but you still need to make roster tweaks.  I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Tyler Thigpen - Thigpen has been the rage in recent weeks.  He’s been productive, has a trio of receiving threats, and has generally been playing from behind. That’s a nice receipe for fantasy success.  This week should be no different as he faces New Orleans.  Their Offense is explosive so they will be playing from behind and their Defense is weak so Thigpen should be able to produce. 
Stat Line:  19 of 38 for 235 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 3 carries for 45 yards

RB
Larry Johnson - It’s amazing that LJ has sunk this low, but when you consider he has 2 yards on 7 carries the last six weeks, it’s justifiable.  It’s hard to say how he’ll respond to his first game action since October 5th, but he has a nice matchup against the Saints to get the rust off.
Stat Line:  19 carries for 67 yards, 1 catch for 20 yards 

Ricky Williams - Ricky should have a solid game against Oakland as they are 28th in the league with 158.1 yards allowed per game.  They also rank 28th with 13 rushing TDs allowed.  I see both Ronnie Brown and Ricky putting up solid numbers against the Raiders.
Stat Line:  13 carries for 49 yards, 1 catch for 6 yards

WR
Muhsin Muhammad - I fully expect Jake Delhomme to bounce back from his dreadful game last week against the Raiders.  He faces another pathetic team in Detroilet.  Steve Smith is going to go off after catching one pass for nine yards last week, but there will still be leftovers for Muhsin.
Stat Line:  1 catch for 16 yards.  Sorry.

Greg Camarillo - The Raiders, namely Nnamdi Asomugha, will shut down Ted Ginn, Jr.  He can’t cover everybody though so look for Camarillo to have a productive Sunday
Stat Line:  2 catches for 34 yards.  Sorry.

TE
Matt Spaeth - The Chargers have been terrible defending Tight Ends this year.  With Heath Miller out, it’s Matt Spaeth’s turn to shine.  I’m expecting at least 45 yards from him with a decent chance to score. 
Stat Line:  6 catches for 55 yards  

K
Josh Brown - St. Louis’ Offense should be good enough to move the ball vs. San Francisco, but bad enough where their drives stall out in Field Goal range.  Considering that the 49ers have allowed league highs with 23 FGs and 95 Kicker points, it isn’t a stretch to think Josh Brown could have a solid game.
Stat Line: 3 FGs, PAT

DEF
Miami - They play the Raiders.  Enough said.  Joey Porter and company should get pressure on the QB.  I see multiple sacks and multiple turnovers.
Stat Line:  6 Sacks

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Matt Ryan (20.2) over Eli Manning (17.75) WHICH I WON.
Matt Forte (18.6) and Steve Slaton (2.4) (combined) [21.0] beat LaDainian Tomlinson (11.7) WHICH I LOST.
Michael Turner (15.6) over Brian Westbrook +1 (6.9 – 5.9 actual plus spotted points) WHICH I WON.
Reggie Wayne (17.4) beat Michael Jenkins (7.2) WHICH I LOST.
Devery Henderson (6.3) beat Randy Moss (5.1)  WHICH I WON.
Super Stetch:  Brady Quinn (20.25) over  Jake Delhomme (7.6) WHICH I WON.

Regular Picks:  3-2
Picks:  1-0  
Overall:  4-2  

Season Record
Regular Picks:  31-19
Super Stretch Picks:  4-5
Overall:  35-24

Quarterback
 
Tyler Thigpen over Eli Manning
I can’t believe I’m taking a Chief over a Giant.  It’s all about the matchups.  Thigpen goes up against a bad New Orleans’ D while Eli faces a tough Baltimore unit.  Thigpen has actually looked decent in recent weeks and has some nice options in Gonzo, Bowe, and Bradley.  Eli could have his hands full with the Ravens.

Running Backs
   
Marshawn Lynch over Brandon Jacobs
I’m picking against the Giants again.  It’s more about the respect I have for Baltimore’s D than a slight to New York’s Offense.  Jacobs is a beast, but I’m expecting Lynch to go into Beast mode against Cleveland and finally crack the 100 yard mark.

  
Ricky Williams over Willis McGahee
Talk about night-and-day expressions in these photos.  Ricky looks happy-go-lucky and McGahee looks like someone just ran over his cat.  I’m banking on their demeanors reflecting their expressions as Ricky has a nice game against Oakland while McGahee struggles vs. the G-Men.

Wide Receiver
       
Santonio Holmes over T.J. Houshmandzadeh
I’ll take Santonio Holmes  over Housh in this battle of underperforming Divisional foes.  Holmes isn’t the first option, but his matchup against San Diego’s is more fantasy friendly than Housh’s against Philadelphia.  I’m hoping the matchup will more than offset the additional targets Housh receives.

  
Kevin Curtis over Kevin Walter
They have something in common other than their position, but I can’t quite put my finger on it.  It’s also not their first name.  That’s right, they both came in the league in 2003.  I like Curtis in this battle based on his matchup vs. Cincy over Walter’s vs. Indy.

SUPER STRETCH
 
BenJarvus Green-Ellis over Jamal Lewis
I’ll take the Law Firm over the ex-con.  Not sure why, but I think Green-Ellis will factor in big on Thursday while Jamal will have his hands full trying to navigate vs. Buffalo’s D.

Quarterback
Philip Rivers - Rivers is in the midst of a fantastic season.  He has thrown a TD in every game this year with five games of three TDs.  He hasn’t faced a Defense like Pittsburgh’s yet though.  The Steelers will do their best to slow down the passing attack.  This could be a week that LT’s feet are relied upon more than Rivers’ arm.

Running Backs
Marion Barber III - Washington is coming off a bye, which should have their Defense nice and fresh.  They have had one of the best Run D’s in the league allowing just 80.7 yards per game and 6 rushing TDs.  If Tony Romo is back, it may take him some time to get back in a rhythm.  If he’s not back then the Skins can stack the box against MB3.

Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD has been better in recent weeks, but he’s still not having the breakout season many expected, especially considering the reduced role of Fred Taylor.  He scored thrice last week, but Tennessee will provide a much stiffer test for the Bowling Ball. 

Wide Receiver
Plaxico Burress - Plax gets to follow his tough matchup with Philadelphia with a tough one against Baltimore.  That is not a fun two-step.  Next week he gets some relief in Arizona, but this week his owners may have to look elsewhere.

Bernard Berrian - Berrian has been playing extremely well since Gus Frerotte took over.  Hed didn’t catch a pass last week.  It won’t get easier as he draws a tough matchup this week when the Vikings travel to Tampa Bay.  They are also coming off a bye and have allowed just 190.1 ypg.  They have given up a dozen TDs through the air though so his owners can remain a little optimistic.