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Before we get started, click here for my Week 12 NFL Picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Matthew Stafford over Joe Flacco:  Winner Stafford 41.8, Flacco 12.6
Jason Snelling over Ryan Grant:  Winner Snelling 20.9, Grant 20.5
Beanie Wells over Marion Barber:  WinnerBeanie14.5, MB3 10.7
Sidney Rice over Vincent Jackson:  Winner Rice 20.9, V-Jax 5.6
Pierre Garcon over Derrick Mason:  Loser Garcon 10.1, Mason 14.2
SS:  Jamal Lewis over Thomas Jones:  Loser Jamal 8.8, TJ 10.3

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 25-27
Super Stretch Picks:  4-9
Overall: 29-36

Week 12 Picks

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Yep, I’m doing it. I’m spotting Brees and Brady a point a piece. The two collide on Monday Night in a game you’ve probably saw hyped a shade under a million times by now. Meanwhile, it’s Rodgers who I feel has the monster game of the week as he’s taking on Detroit on Thanksgiving. Detroit is dead last in passing yards allowed (275.3) and 31st in passing TDs allowed (24). What’s worse is they actually made Brady Quinn look like a good NFL QB last week.

Running Backs

Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson
I should have picked this match-up last week, but I’ll take my chances that Ricky can do it again. He faces Buffalo’s run defense that ranks 31st ranked in rushing yards allowed (165.9 yards per game) and rushing TDs allowed (15). Chris Johnson faces Arizona’s 15th ranked run defense, that has allowed just 7 rushing TDs.

Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai
I’ll ride Snelling’s hot hand. He takes on Tampa’s 32nd ranked run defense (168.9 yards per game). Addai faces Houston’s 22nd ranked run defense (120.6), but I think this one will be more about Peyton Manning than the running game.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Matt struggled last week against the Vikings, but almost everyone they faced this year has struggled against them. Life should be much easier for them this week when they take on St. Louis, who is giving up 236.7 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs per game.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Matt bounced back last week after five consecutive mediocre starts. This week he takes on Tampa Bay, who is 30th in the league with 22 passing TDs allowed. Matt is also playing at home where he’s been far more effective.

Home: 4 games, 192.3 yards per game, 8 TDs, 4 INTS
Away: 6 games, 251.2 yards per game, 8 TDs, 8 INTs

Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Shame on me for piling on the poor Rams, but I’m going to do just that. They are 28th against the run allowing 146.4 yards per game. They are also tied for 29th with 14 rushing TDs allowed. Forsett should contribute both on the ground and through the air.

Before we get started, click here for my Week 12 NFL Picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals could err on the side of caution this week with Warner, especially with a three game lead on their division. He suffered a mild concussion last week that knocked him out of the game. With their eye on the big picture, the Cards would be smart to roll with Matt Leinart this week. Besides, it would be a good excuse to evaluate where Leinart is at this point. Additionally, the Cards play the late game, so your options are limited if Warner is a late-decision scratch.

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
Eli is coming off a monster game and the Broncos are reeling. Despite their offensive woes, their defense can still get after it. In their four-game losing streak they are allowing just 195.3 passing yards per game.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy rebounded from a crucial fumble to score the winning TD for the Eagles against the Bears last week. This week he faces the Washington Redskins unit that has allowed just five rushing TDs on the season. Plus, McNabb is more pass-happy at home with seven TDs in three games vs. seven in five road games.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Mendenhall has been a fantasy savior this year, but faces Baltimore on the road, who is ranked fifth in rushing yards allowed and tied for eight in rushing TDs allowed. This is a must-win for both teams, and I’m afraid points and yards will be hard to come by.

Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers
Fresh off of holding Randy Moss to 34 yards, Darrelle Revis gets to lock horns with the original Steve Smith. Smith has not been as effective on the road either. He is averaging just four receptions for 58.6 yards with one TD in five games.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Jason Campbell - With Clinton Portis not at 100% the Skins will likely lean on the QB a little more this week.  The Seahawks have had troubles defending the pass this year so Campbell could quietly turn in a solid performance.
Stat Line:  20 of 33 for 206 yards, TD, 6 carries for 32 yards

RB
Peyton Hillis - When the Broncos gets bored with lighting the Raiders up through the air it will be Hillis getting the touches.  Additionaly, he appears to be a good bet to score this week.  He’s good at catching passes out of the backfield, which helps his cause.
Stat Line:  17 carries for 74 yards, TD, 2 catches for 22 yards

Derrick Ward - Brandon Jacobs is banged up and it seems foolish to give him a full load this week.  Both Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw should see more action this week.
Stat Line:  20 carries for 69 yards, TD, 4 catches for 30 yards

WR
Eddie Royal - While Brandon Marshall will have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha, Royal should be free to have a big game against the lowly Raiders.  The first time he faced Oakland, Royal went for 146 yards on 9 catches.
Stat Line: 2 catches for 14 yards, 1 carry for 3 yards.  Sorry.

Antonio Bryant - Bryant has to be drooling to be going up against Detroit.  He’s caught at least five passes in each of his past four games.  He’s also had two 100 yard games in his past four games.  He should continue his strong play against the pathetic Lions.
Stat Line:  4 catches for 48 yards

TE
Marcedes Lewis - I’ve been stressing that the Vikings have had a hard time defending Tight Ends since E.J. Henderson went down.  This week it’s Lewis’ turn.  After a slow week against Tennessee (1 catch for 19 yards) look for closer to the 3.5 catches for 50 yards he averaged the four games prior.
Stat Line:  4 catches for 41 yards 

K
Nick Folk - If you dumped Nick Folk because of his disappointing play, this may be the week to get him back.  He’s facing San Francisco who has allowed league highs of 26 FGs and 105 Kicker points.
Stat Line:  3 FGs, 4 PATs

DEF
Washington - Washington takes on Seattle this week.  Though they haven’t scored much defensively (15 Sacks and 11 Turnovers) they should be able to produce vs. the Seahawks.
Stat Line:  2 Sacks, 2 INTs

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Tyler Thigpen (24.25) over Eli Manning (11.35) WHICH I WON.
Marshawn Lynch (23.7) over Brandon Jacobs (19.3) WHICH I WON.
Ricky Williams (5.5) over Willis McGahee (2.5) WHICH I WON.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (20.9) beat Santonio Holmes (6.3)  WHICH I LOST. 
Kevin Walter (7.9) beat Kevin Curtis (6.4) WHICH I LOST. 
Super Stetch:  Jamal Lewis () beat BenJarvus Green-Ellis (0.9) WHICH I LOST (BADLY).

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1  
Overall:  3-3  

Season Record
Regular Picks:  34-21
Super Stretch Picks:  4-6
Overall:  38-27

Quarterback
  
Jeff Garcia over Donovan McNabb 
Garcia once replaced an injured McNabb on the Eagles.  Now I’m suggesting that he replace him in fantasy lineups.  Garcia has a soft matchup against Detroit while McNabb will have his hands full in Baltimore.

Running Backs
   
Ryan Grant over Ronnie Brown
Ryan Grant has been running well of late, and his matchup with New Orleans should keep that trend going.  Last time Ronnie Brown played the Patriots he carved them up with the Wildcat Formation.  I’m guessing Bill will have an answer for him this time.

  
Darren McFadden over Chris Johnson
It’s amazing that Chris Johnson has left Run DMC in the dust as badly as he has.  Of course Johnson was draftd by an excellent organization and McFadden gets paychecks signed by one Al Davis.  This week though I think the original higher profile guy gets his vs. Denver.  Chris Johnson faces a much stiffer test against the Jets.  

Wide Receiver
  
Terrell Owens over Brandon Marshall      
I took advantag of the matchup earlier in the year, and I’ll go back to the well.  Romo made an effort to get T.O. involved in the Offense last week.  Couple that with him facing his former team (San Francisco) and I see a nice week for T.O.  Meanwhile Marshall will have to battle Nnamdi Asomugha.  He just doesn’t get thrown on.

  
Santana Moss over Calvin Johnson
Talk about a size differential.  This is like David vs. Goliath.  I’ll take David (Santana) because he has a nice matchup against the Seahawks (278.6 ypg), who have been killed by the pass this year.  Megatron has a much tougher matchup against Tampa Bay (194.3 ypg).  Tampa has allowed their share of TDs (13 to the Seahawks’ 15), but I’m counting on Ronde Barber to kep Calvin in check.  

SUPER STRETCH  

 
Peyton Hillis over Brian Westbrook
I know I’m off my rocker.  I’m doing it any way.  Hillis has a nice matchup against Oakland while Westbrook draws the Ravens.  I’m banking on a short TD for Hillis to have a chance.  One thing is for sure, you can’t argue that this one isn’t a Super Stretch.