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Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Rodgers 29.9
Brees Loser 39.45 (38.45 actual)
Brady Winner 13.05 (12.05 actual)
Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson: Loser Ricky 17.5, CJ 24.6
Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai: Loser Snelling 3.3, Addai 8.2
Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker: Tie Nate 4.6, Sims-Walker 4.6
Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR): Winner Crab 5.4, Smith 0.5
SS: Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell: Loser Boller20.7, Campbell 25.75

Regular Picks: 2-3-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 2-4-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 27-30-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-10
Overall: 31-40-1

Week 13 Picks

Quarterback

Philip Rivers over Drew Brees
Brees is coming off a monster win against the Patriots in which he lit them up like a Christmas tree. He’s due for a bit of a letdown as he takes on Washington on the road. The Skins have actually been solid against the pass, although they did play some of the worst QBs earlier in the year. Rivers should have an absolute field day against the Brownies.

Running Backs

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
Forte should be able to put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air against the lowly Saints. Meanwhile Ricky has to face New England following an embarrassing loss. They focus on shutting Ricky down as Henne can’t beat them.

Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant
The Panthers best bet for winning is to pound to ball repeatedly with both J-Stew and D-Will. They should be able to do that with ease against Tampa Bay at home. Meanwhile, Ryan Grant faces Baltimore’s tough run defense.

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald
This match-up has concussion written all over it. Maclin should slide into the #1 role for the Eagles with DeSean Jackson likely to miss the game with a concussion. He should torch Atlanta. Meanwhile Fitz will likely have to deal with Matt Leinart again as Kurt Warner recovers from his concussion.

Austin Collie over Chris Chambers
The last time the Colts played Tennessee scored a pair of TDs. It’s really pick-your-poison will all the weapons at Peyton Manning’s disposal. The Titans will key in on Wayne, Clark, and Addai, which should allow Collie to make some plays. Chambers has been great since coming over to Kansas City from San Diego. This week he faces Champ Bailey and their tough pass defense.

SUPER STRETCH

Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens
David Garrard is so much better playing at home. With this week’s game in Jacksonville Thomas has a chance to put up real solid numbers. Meanwhile T.O. will have to lock horns with Darrelle Revis and the Jets. He’s been in the business of shutting down #1 WRs, and this week should be no different.

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard has a decent match-up this week against Houston’s middle-of-the road passing defense. That’s not what makes him a decent play this weekend. He truly is a different player at home, where the Jags happen to play this week.

Home:  5 games, 283.8 yards per game, 7 TD, 4 INTs
Away:  6 games, 198.5 ypg, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Smith has back-to-back multiple TD games for the Niners. With Seattle on deck, who is 25th in passing yards allowed (238.1)and 27th in passing TDs allowed (20), Smith is a good bet to make it three straight.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
I’m sure by now his fantasy owners have lost faith in Cutler, but feel free to trot him out there against the Rams. St. Louis is 22nd against the pass with 225.6 yards per game. Now if Cutler can just remember which team to throw to.

Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills
Jackson was heavily utilized last week by Interim Coach Perry Fewell, and appears to have replaced Marshawn Lynch as the team’s feature back. He faces the Jets’ 13th ranked run defense, which has been more susceptible of late.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
Knowshon should build upon his Thanksgiving performance we he faces the Chiefs’ 27th ranked run defense (134.5 ypg). Moreno has averaged 88.3 rushing yards the past three weeks.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
J-Stew should bounce back from a couple of down weeks as he faces Tampa Bay’s 30th ranked run defense (160.4 ypg). The last time the Panthers faced the Bucs, he ran for 110 yards and a score.

Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant, WRs, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s unlike that DeSean Jackson’s concussion will allow him to play this weekend, which elevates both Maclin and Avant’s fantasy values. Aside from the extra looks they should receive, they face Atlanta’s 27th ranked pass defense (252.6 ypg).

Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, WRs, Indianapolis Colts
Peyton continues to spread the ball around, and both of these WRs have to potential to produce against theTitan’s 31st ranked pass defense (266.7). Garcon has been the better play of late, but Collie had a pair of TDs the last time they squared off with Tennessee.

Dante Rosario, TE, Carolina Panthers
Dante has caught four passes in each of his past two games, and is a good sneaky play this week as he faces Tampa Bay.

Rob Bironas, K, Tennessee Titans
Bironas faces the Indianapolis Colts who have allowed two Field Goals a game this season. Bironas has hit 1.6 FGs per game with five straight multiple FG games.

Olinod Mare, K, Seattle Seahawks
Mare faces San Francisco, who is tied for 26th with 20 FGs allowed. Mare has made 19 FGs on the year. They play in Seattle where he averaged 2.2 FGs per game.

Buffalo Defense/Special Teams
The Bills play the Jets at home. The last time they faced Mark Sanchez, he threw five Interceptions. While I don’t expect him to reach that mark, a multiple INT game isn’t out of the question.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams
Da Bears get to stop the bleeding by facing the Rams at home. Multiple Sacks and turnovers should be in order.

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Warner makes the list again this week, but it’s more a reflection on who he’s facing than anything. I’m confident he’ll be able to play this week, but he could have a hard time finishing the game against Minnesota’s front four. The Vikings lead the league with 40 Sacks, and it’s hard to have faith in a QB coming off a concussion against a defense that brings so much pressure.

I’m also iffy on Ben Roethlisberger coming off his concussion and facing the Raiders, who are tied for fourth with just ten passing TDs allowed.

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers
This is not a good week to use Ryan Grant. He faces Baltimore’s 6th ranked rushing defense (97.6 yards/gm). They are also tenth with just seven rushing TDs allowed. Grant plays at home, where he has actually been less productive.

Home:  87.5 total yards per game (72.5 rushing, 15.0 receiving)
Away:  111.0 total yards per games (91.0 rushing, 20.0 receiving)

Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants
Jacobs faces Dallas’ 9th ranked rushing defense (102.7 yards/gm). They allowed just five rushing TDs on the season. In his last four games against Dallas he has scored just one TD with an average of 84 total yards.  Not exactly numbers you can bank on in this crucial juncture of the season.

Terrell Owens, WR, Buffalo Bills
T.O. is on fire, but squares up against Darrelle Revis. The Jets are #2 against the pass with 175.7 yards allowed per game, and tops with just seven passing TDs allowed.  When the Bills faced the Jets in Week 6, T.O. was held to 13 yards on three catches.

Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Chambers has been a godsend for the Chiefs, especially with Dwayne Bowe serving his four-game suspension. This week though, he faces Champ Bailey and Denver’s 5th ranked passing defense (185 yards/gm). They are also tied for fourth with ten passing TDs allowed.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Jeff Garcia - The think I like about Garcia is he rarely turns the ball over.  He a nice safe play.  He should be good for 225 yards and a TD or two against New Orleans.  If you are in the position where you don’t want to take big risks this week, Garcia is your guy. 
Stat Line:  9 for 23 for 119 yards, TD, 7 carries for 42 yards (rushing yardage gave him a decent score)

RB
Jamal Lewis - Lewis hasn’t reached the 80-yard mark since Week 8 and he has just one TD in that four game span.  He wasn’t happy with the game plan that only afforded him 10 carries against Houston.  He should get more carries and greater production this week as he faces Indianapolis.
Stat Line:  24 carries fr 77 yards, 1 catch for 7 yards

Darren McFadden - McFadden scored twice last week, but Fargas had 24 carries to Run DMC’s 10.  I expect the carries to balance out a bit this week as they face Kansas City and McFadden continues to get healthier (toes).  His versatility makes him the guy at the stripe, as evidenced by his two one-yard TDs.  He could even throw on this week.
Stat Line:  7 carries for 13 yards, 3 catches for 50 yards

WR
Ted Ginn, Jr. - Ginn was a guy that I liked coming into this year, and he’s had a handful of games that have showcased his potential.  I see another solid performance from him this week as he faces woeful St. Louis.
Stat Line:  4 catches for 55 yards

Jabar Gaffney - Against the Steelers the Patriots are going to have to adjust their style of play.  Randy Moss will command plenty of attention.  Wes Welker will be second on the radar.  Gaffney will have the opportunity to make some plays.  I think he’ll step up his game.
Stat Line:  1 catch for 2 yards.  Yuck

TE
Greg Olsen - Olsen didn’t catch a pass last week against St. Louis so look for the Bears to get him involved against the Vikings.  The last time they squared off he had six catches for 74 yards and a score.
Stat Line:   1 catch for 7 yards.  Yuck

K
Rian Lindell - Until they prove me wrong I am going to keep picking on the 49ers.  They have allowed the most FGs and the most Kicker points. 
Stat Line:  1 FG

DEF
Miami - St. Louis has packed it in.  Miami got embarrassed by the Patriots last week.  I get the feeling the Dolphins are going to take it out on the Rams this week. 
Stat Line:  3 INTs

Happy Thanksgiving!

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Jeff Garcia (16.15) beat Donovan McNabb ( 3.65) WHICH I WON. 
Ryan Grant (8.6) over Ronnie Brown (4.7) WHICH I WON.
Darren McFadden (17.2) beat Chris Johnson (6.1) WHICH I WON. 
Terrell Owens (27.3) beat Brandon Marshall (  WHICH I WON.      
Calvin Johnson (12.6) beat Santana Moss (7.2) WHICH I LOST.     
Super Stetch:  Peyton Hillis (15.6) beat Brian Westbrook (3.4) WHICH I WON.      

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0  
Overall:  5-1  

Season Record
Regular Picks:  38-22 (.633)
Super Stretch Picks:  5-6 (.455)
Overall:  43-28 (.606)

Quarterback
 
Matt Ryan over Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan hasn’t threw a TD pass the past two weeks.  San Diego’s porous pass D should be the cure.  Cutler has 420 yards and 1 TD since throwing for 447 in Week 10 vs. Cleveland.  Facing the Jets on the road won’t be his cure.

Running Backs
 
Chris Johnson over Clinton Portis
Portis bounced back in a big way last week against Seattle with 143 yards on 29 carries.  This week he faces the Giants though, and yards won’t come as easy.  Chris Johnson has 118 yards the past three weeks.  I’m guessing Detroit is what he’s thankful for this Thanksgiving.

 
Darren McFadden over Matt Forte
McFadden rushed for two TDs last week against Denver.  Up next is Kansas City.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran for a couple more.  Meanwhile Forte faces Minnesota.  He’ll have to get his work in the passing attack because the Vikings don’t allow much on the ground. 

Wide Receiver
  
Antonio Bryant over T.J. Houshmandzadeh  
Bryant is having a nice little second half averaging 76.4 yards per game over his past five with a couple of scores.  Housh has been heavily targeted with at least six receptions in eight of his last nine games.  Bryant has a much better matchup this week though.  Tampa Bay goes up against New Orleans while Cincinnati has to face Baltimore.

 
Roy Williams over Dwayne Bowe
After T.O. begged for the ball last week, Romo granted his wish.  Romo will share the wealth a little more on Thanksgiving as Dallas faces Seattle.  Trades during the season are rare enough in the NFL, but the fact that Roy was dealt from one Thanksgiving Day team is kind of neat.  Poor Bowe won’t be thankful that Nnamdi Asomugha will be in his back pocket.   

SUPER STRETCH   
  
J.J. Arrington over Kevin Faulk
I’d be surprised if either of them scored this week, but they both will catch the ball out of the backfield while mixing in a few carries.  Faulk will likely get more touches, but he is facing a tough Pittsburgh team.  Arrington goes up against the other Pennsylvania team.  You know the one that is a complete mess.  I’ll step out and pick J.J. here.