Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Vince Young over Carson Palmer: Winner VY 15.0, Palmer 9.7
Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady:  Loser Big Ben 11.05, Brady 13.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton:  Loser Fitzpatrick 10.0, Orton 22.95
Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2:  Winner Charles 24.1, Forte 8.8 (6.8 actual +2)
Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant:  Loser Walter 1.7, Bryant 2.2
SS: Joe Flacco over Brett Favre:  Winner Flacco 15.7, Favre 14.4

Regular Picks:  2-3
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 32-35-1
Super Stretch Picks:  5-11
Overall: 37-46-1

Week 15 Picks
Matt Hasselbeck profile Brett Favre profile photo
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre

I’m gonna pick on Favre again this week to make him prove the December thing is over. He’s averaging 197.4 yards, 1.1 TDs, and 1.6 INTs in his last ten December games. He faces a Carolina pass defense that is sixth in the league with 192.4 passing yards allowed and tied for third with 13 passing TDs allowed. Hasselbeck faces Tampa Bay, who ranks 28th with 24 passing TDs allowed.

Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots Rashard Mendenhall profile
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2
Charles has been great for the Chiefs despite all of their inadequacies.Look for him to torch Cleveland’s 28th ranked run defense (148.1 ypg). They’re also 23rd with 14 rushing TDs allowed. I’ll spot Mendenhall 20 yards, but that still should not be enough against the stingy Packers run defense that’s allowed just 85.0 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

Houston Texans 2009 Football Headshots Ryan Grant Profile
Arian Foster over Ryan Grant
Foster is the latest Texan RB to take a crack at duplicating last year’s success. His path starts out smooth against St. Louis, who’s 27th in rushing yards allowed (147.2) and 31st in rushing TDs allowed (19). Grant is quietly putting together a nice season, but draws a tough match-up against Pittsburgh, who’s allowed 84.9 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

D045594050.JPG DeSean Jackson
Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson
Most people wouldn’t touch Moss with a ten-foot pole in this match-up considering what went down last week. I’m from the camp that feels he’s respond to his critics with a big game. If you recall, the last time he faced the Bills he had 12 catches for 141 yards. The Patriots know they need Moss if they are going to challenge for another Super Bowl. Look for Brady to patch things up with his arm. San Francisco played inspired on Monday Night Football, and will try to bring that same energy to Philadelphia. The Niners give up yards in the air, but have only allowed 13 passing TDs, which ties them for third in the league.

Jermichael Finley profile Jason Witten profile
Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten
Finley’s size, speed, and athleticism make him a tough cover. Aaron Rodgers has been looking to him more in recent weeks. Pittsburgh is going to blitz Rodgers early and often so Finley could rack up the check-down looks. Jason Witten has played better of late, but draws a tough match-up against New Orleans.

SUPER STRETCH
Quinton Ganther profile DeAngelo Williams profile
Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams
Ganther takes on the Giants, who are ranked 29th with 17 rushing TDs allowed. He also contributes in the passing game, which makes him a nice sneaky play. D-Will takes on the Vikings, who haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since 2007. They rank fourth in rushing yards per game (86.9) and are tied with New England for the fewest rushing TDs allowed (3). Carolina lost RT Jeff Otah for the year so they’ll have to take on the Vikings’ front four without either starting Tackle.

NFL Week 15 Fantasy Fill-ins

16 December 2009

Happy Birthday Nicole!

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.


Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough match-ups.

Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins
Campbell has played relatively well the past three weeks 273.3 yards and 2.3 TDs. He faces a reeling Giants team that ranks 26th with 23 passing TDs allowed. Fred Davis, who has four TDs during that three-game stretch, should be able to exploit the G-Men over the middle.

Brady Quinn, QB, Cleveland Browns
Quinn has alternated stinkers with impressive performances. If the pattern stays true, he’s up for a big one. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that pattern, but will factor in his opponent. He faces Kansas City who is 24th in the league in pass yards and passing TDs allowed.

Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins
Ganther played well last week as the lead back against Oakland. He’ll have a stiffer test this week against the Giants. They don’t give up a lot of rushing yards, but are tied for 29th with 17 rushing TDs allowed. He’s not a bad play if you’re in a bind.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
It appears that it’s Foster’s turn on the Texans RB merry-go-round. He’s got a great week to show his stuff as they face St. Louis, who ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed (147.2) and 31st in rushing TDs allowed.

continue reading »

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Indianapolis Colts’ Offense (Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark)
The Colts wrapped up home field advantage so they really have nothing to play for. They aren’t concerned with a perfect season, and will do everything in their power to keep them out of harm’s way. I wouldn’t expect many second-half minutes for this crew.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
The Saints, unlike the Colts, have indicated that a perfect season is important to them, which is not good news for a team in a December funk. With each December loss, the pressure mounts on Romo. The Superdome is going to be incredibly loud, which will make it hard for the Boys to get into a rhythm. Oh, and the Saints have a pretty stout defense. They are tied for third with just 13 passing TDs allowed.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
In an even greater free fall than the Cowboys is the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. They are in complete disarray. They are struggling to run the football, which will feed right into Green Bay’s hands. Green Bay is in a virtual tie for first with just 85.0 rushing yards allowed and ranks fourth with 4 rushing TDs allowed.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
LT has been sharing the workload all season long, and will do some this week as well. He faces Cincinnati, who is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Vikings. They will be plenty motivated to put that behind them. Cincy is third in the league with 86.4 rushing yards allowed, and tied for ninth with 8 rushing TDs allowed.

R
oddy White, Atlanta Falcons
Roddy is putting together another fine year, but draws the unfortunate match-up with Darrelle Revis.  Revis has been blanketing #1′s all season long, and Roddy is next in line. The Jets rank first with 160.4 passing yards and 7 passing TDs allowed.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roddy isn’t the only person that will have to deal with a shutdown corner this week. Santonio Holmes will be blanketed by Charles Woodson. Green Bay is also tough against the pass, ranking third with 187.0 passing yards allowed.

NFL Week 15 Fantasy Fill-ins

12 December 2008


Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Tyler Thigpen
- The last time Thigpen faced San Diego he fired three TDs.  He faces them at home so another solid game should be in order.
Stat Line:  19 of 28 for 171 yards, TD, INT, 10 carries for 40 yards, TD

RB
Kevin Smith
- He had a nice game against Minnesota despite the presence of the Williams Wall.  He should have more room to run against Indianapolis this week, who rank 25th with 129.8 rushing ypg. They have allowed 15 rushing TDs. 
Stat Line:  20 carries for 88 yards, TD, 6 catches for 31 yards

Jonathan Stewart - Kudos to you if you had the foresight to play J-Stew vs. Tampa last week.  Another big game could be in store for the part-time back this week as the Panthers face Denver’s soft run D.  They’re yielding 139.5 ypg.
Stat Line:  16 carries for 52 yards, TD

WR
DeSean Jackson - After failing to catch a pass last week, DeSean should see a considerable bounceback with a juicy matchup against Cleveland.
Stat Line:  5 catches for 77 yards, INT

Deion Branch - After scoring a pair of TDs against his former teammates, Branch gets to face St. Louis, who is 24th against the pass with 224.8 ypg allowed.  They’ve given up 17 TD strikes.
Stat Line:  5 catches for 76 yards

TE
Visanthe Shiancoe - Shiancoe showed a lot last week.  Enough of the locker room scene talk.  He did catch a pass.  With T-Jack at the helm, the big TE should be counted on more this week.
Stat Line:  1 catch for 8 yards.

K
Olindo Mare
- St. Louis is tied for 29th with 122 Kicker points allowed.  A couple of FGs could be in order for the former Syracuse Orangemen.
Stat Line:  3 FGs, 2 PATs

DEF
New England
- Things are getting so bad for the Patriots that they contemplated signing Andre Tippett.  Kidding.  The Pats face Oakland this week so multiple Sacks and Turnovers should be in the cards, especially if weather is a factor.
Stat Line:  INT, 2 Sacks, Kick Return TDs (if you’re in a DST league)

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Matt Ryan
(27.05) beat Philip Rivers (24.6) WHICH I WON.
DeAngelo Williams (31.2) destroyed Larry Johnson (3.6) WHICH I LOST. 
Kevin Smith (9.0) over Clinton Portis (4.6) WHICH I WON.
Terrell Owens (9.4) beat Donald Driver (7.5) WHICH I LOST. 
Marvin Harrison (13.8) over Santana Moss (4.8) WHICH I WON. 
   
Super Stetch:  Matt Cassel (18.8) beat Tony Romo ( 15.1) WHICH I WON.

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0   
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks:  44-26 (.629
Super Stretch Picks:  6-7 (.462)
Overall:  50-33 (.602)

Quarterback
  
Seneca Wallace/Matt Hasselbeck
over Ben Roethlisberger
I’m going to take the combination of Seattle slingers over Big Ben. The Seahawks have a much better matchup against St. Louis.  Pittsburgh will likely have more success passing the ball vs. running it against Baltimore, but I don’t expect big production for either source.  

Running Backs
 
Dominic Rhodes
over Willie Parker
LenDale White and Chester Taylor were both effective backups against the Lions in recent weeks.  I’m guessing this game will get out of hand and Rhodes will pile up the stats running out the clock.  Fast Willie could find it hard to get free against the Ravens.

    
Steven Jackson over Steve Slaton
Assuming S-Jax can actually make it through another game intact, he should fare well against Seattle.  Slaton has been a beast of late, but has a tough test against Tennessee.

Wide Receiver
 
Wes Welker over Randy Moss
I figured now would be a fun time to go with a teammate battle.  Welker should find space against Oakland while Moss will have to contend with Nnamdi Asomugha.

   
Reggie Wayne over Calvin Johnson
Why not do a head-to-head battle as well.  Wayne has been ice cold the past few weeks, but Detroit is the perfect remedy.  Indy is strong against the pass.  Stopping the run is their problem.  Calvin could struggle.

SUPER STRETCH 
 
Deion Branch over Derrick Mason
Branch has looked good the past couple of weeks.  I look for him to continue his strong play against St. Louis.  Mason has a tough matchup against the Steelers.      
   

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger
- If you count on Big Ben for your fantasy team, hopefully you have a good alternative for an important fantasy playoff matchup as Pittsburgh faces Baltimore this week.  To make matters worse, it’s a road game for Big Ben.

Running Backs
Steve Slaton
- The last time he faced Tennessee Slaton had 116 yards and a score.  I’m certain that Tennessee will be reminded of that performance a time or two in practice and in film sessions.  #20 will be a marked man this week.

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch has improved greatly in recent weeks, but a matchup against the Jets will provide a stiffer test.  Plus, it’s on the road where Lynch hasn’t been as good.  He’s averaged just 57.7 rushing yards in six road games.

Wide Receiver
Randy Moss
- Moss is the latest WR to go up against Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha.  Moss is good enough to produce against anybody, but against Asomugha you have to lowere you expectations a bit.  The saving grace for Pats fans and Moss fantasy owners is Randy could get up for this game since it’s a chance to stick it to Al Davis and the Raiders. 

Derrick Mason - Mason is quietly having another fantastic season for the Ravens.  He lit up Pittsburgh back in Week 4 to the tune of eight catches for 137 yards.  I am certain Pittsburgh has included him in their gameplan.


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