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Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre:  Winner Hasselbeck 17.1, Favre 11.2
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2:  Winner Charles 23.0, Mendenhall 19.1 (17.1 actual +2)
Arian Foster over Ryan Grant:  Loser Foster 2.0, Grant 9.7
Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson:  Loser Moss 13.0, DeSean 20.9
Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten:  Winner Finley 13.4, Witten 4.4
SS:  Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams:  Winner Ganther 10.0, D-Will 1.6

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 35-37-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-11
Overall: 41-48-1

Week 16 Picks


Alex Smith over Peyton Manning
I pair these former #1 picks that have had completely different paths to where they are today. Manning is having the second best season of his Hall of Fame career. Alex Smith is coming off a bad game against the Eagles, but has been very productive of late. Smith should absolutely pick apart the Lions this week. Meanwhile, there is debate as to how much Manning will play this week. Plus, the Jets defense is tough against the pass.

Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson
I pit a young, talented RB just kicking off his career against a Hall of Fame RB winding down his career. Both RBs have picked up steam as the season went on, but I feel it’s Beanie who will be more productive this week as he takes on St. Louis. LT goes up against Tennessee, who despite the recent injuries on defense, should put up more of a fight. That and they struggle defending the pass, which means Philip Rivers and Co. will be very busy.

Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson
Grant is quietly putting together another solid year. He should go over 1200 yards, possibly this week as he takes on a Seattle team that’s going nowhere. December has been his best month as he has 8 TDs in 11 games, vs. 9 in the remaining 34. Jackson is gutting it out despite being all banged up. Jackson is playing on the road, where he averages 28.1 fewer total yards and has scored just one TD.

Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2
Marshall and Ocho have very similar numbers this year with Marshall having a slight edge. I believe that Ocho will score again this week to honor his fallen teammate. Marshall is playing in Philly so I’ll spot him 20 yards.

Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek
I’m going to ride Finley’s hot hand again as he takes on Seattle’s putrid pass defense. The Broncos are going to give the Eagles a fight, and I’m lowering my expectations on all of their offensive stars.

SUPER STRETCH

Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles
Snelling should get to run as the lead back as the Falcons take on Buffalo’s league-worst run defense. Not only will he get the bulk of the carries between the 20′s, but will get the rock at the stripe. Charles has been amazing the second half of the season, but runs into a stingy Cincinnati run defense in what should be an emotional home game for the Bengals.

Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

We’ve already looked at the players who could struggle this week (click here for article). Now I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough match-ups.

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Alex Smith has a chance at fantasy immortality as he takes on Detroit’s league-worst pass defense. They have allowed 268.6 yards per game and 23 passing TDs. Smith 10 TDs in his last five games.

Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns
If Harrison’s record-setting performance didn’t ensure him of a heavy workload this week, I will openly question Mangini’s sanity. I don’t see him coming anywhere near what he did last week, but he should be able to produce against the league’s 28th ranked run defense that’s allowing 148.9 yards per game along with a league-worse 20 rushing TDs.

Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons
I don’t want to hear about Michael Turner for the rest of the year. Twice they rushed him back. If they just let his ankle heal, he’d be exploiting the Bills’ league-worst run defense. They have allowed 165.6 yards per game and 18 TDs. Snelling should be a force in the fantasy football championship.

Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Beanie is really beginning to his his stride with 189 yards (226 total) and 2 TDs in his last two games. He faces a terrible Rams run defense that is 27th in the league with 140.4 yards allowed. They have also given up 19 rushing scores.

Terrell Owens, WR, Buffalo Bills
T.O. has struggled for the better part of this season, but Atlanta’s porous secondary brings some relief. They rank 30th with 265.9 yards allowed, and have given up 24 passing TDs.

Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Romo is breathing a little easier now that he got the December monkey off his back. Meanwhile, Favre’s got a little heavier with the loss to the Panthers. Despite the Saints’ loss, they are off in the distance for home field advantage. Meanwhile the Eagles are charging hard. Brad Childress is starting to panic a bit, as Favre admits he was almost pulled last week. All of this does not make me comfortable when choosing a starting QB for the fantasy football championship game.

For you numbers hounds (like myself), Favre is averaging 199.8 yards in his last 11 December games with 11 TDs to 17 INTS. When it’s been below 40 degrees he averages 197.6 yards with 5 TDs and 9 INTs. The game is at Chicago this week.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
On the flip side for the Vikings, their run defense allowed their first 100 yard rusher since 2007 when Jonathan Stewart torched them on Sunday Night Football. Their defense responded in a big way after the Cardinals loss, shutting down Cincinnati. The Bears offense is so dysfunctional. I see a long day for Forte, who had just 61 total yards when he faced the Vikings in Week 12.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Charles has looked like Chris Johnson Lite the past six weeks. This week he’ll face a stiffer test when he takes on the emotional Cincinnati Bengals, who did a nice job limiting LT last week. The Bengals rank third in the league with 85.2 rushing yards allowed per game, and have allowed just 8 rushing TDs.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
I was premature calling for the Colts to rest up some of their players. We’re a week closer to the season wrapping up, and the likelihood improves. Even if Wayne plays the whole game, he’ll have to face Darrelle Revis. Peyton is more than comfortable going to Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon if Wayne can’t get any separation.

Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Mason had seven catches for 62 yards and a score the last time he faced Pittsburgh (Week 12). The Steelers managed to escape their slugfest against Green Bay with a victory to keep their playoffs hopes alive. This time they tangle in Pittsburgh. I’m expecting a knock em down, drag em out affair where the weather could play a key role.

Other guys I don’t love this week:
QB: Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco
RB: LT, Marion Barber III, Maurice Morris, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy
WR: DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, T.J. Housmandzadeh, Jerricho Cotchery
TE: Todd Heap, John Carlson, Kevin Boss

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Brett Favre - Brett hasn’t been great of late, but I do love his matchup this week against Seattle.  I can see the Drama King put together a strong performance in his last matchup against former Coach Mike Holmgren. 
Stat Line:  18 of 31 for 187 yards, 2 INTs

RB
Kevin Smith - I’ll continue to sing the Rookies praises and ride him for another week.  He faces New Orleans this week.  Smith could quietly be putting together one of the best fantasy playoffs runs among RBs.
Stat Line:  24 carries for 111 yards, TD

Jamal Lewis – Lewis is part of Cleveland’s disappointing Offense.  Though the passing game takes the most heat, the running game hasn’t delivered either.  That could change this week as Jamal takes on Cincinnati.
Stat Line:  16 carries for 76 yards

WR
Kevin Walter - After catching just 2 passes for 8 yards against Tennessee, I expect Walter to bounce back in a big way against Oakland.
Stat Line:  2 catches for 17 yards, 1 rush for 13 yards

Isaac Bruce - Bruce has a nice matchup against his former teammates in St. Louis.  He should be a solid #3 WR this week.
Stat Line:  7 catches for 61 yards, TD

TE
Jerramy Stevens - Stevens is the latest TE I am picking to exploit San Diego’s inability to cover the Tight End.
Stat Line:  2 catches for 21 yards

K
Joe Nedney - St. Louis is 31st in the league with 133 Kicker points allowed.  They are 25th with 29 FGs allowed.  I expect multiple FGs for Nedney this week.
Stat Line:  FG, 2 PATs

DEF
Houston - Houston has won four straight games by allowing 21 or fewer in each of those games.  Last week they held the Tennesse ground game in check.  Things get much easier for them this week as they go up against Oakland.
Stat Line:  1 Fumble, 1 Sack

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Ben Roethlisberger (18.4) beat Seneca Wallace (11.6) WHICH I LOST. 
Dominic Rhodes (23.6) beat Willie Parker (5.6) WHICH I WON.
Steven Jackson (18.7) beat Steve Slaton (11.5) WHICH I WON.
Randy Moss (18.7) beat Wes Welker (12.9) WHICH I LOST. 
Calin Johnson (17.0) beat Reggie Wayne (10.4) WHICH I LOST. 
   
Super Stetch:  Deion Branch (7.6) beat Derrick Mason (2.3) WHICH I WON.

Regular Picks:  2-3 
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0   
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks:  46-29 (.613)
Super Stretch Picks:  7-7 (.500)
Overall:  53-36 (.595)

Quarterback
 
Brett Favre over Kurt Warner
Favre has questioned his arm strength this week.  Wouldn’t it be like him to put on a display this week against Seattle.  Warner faces New England on the road in what could be sloppy conditions.  I’ll take the more tenured Hall of Famer in this oldies matchup.
  
Running Backs
 
Pierre Thomas over Michael Turner
Pierre should run all over Detroit.  Even without Pat Williams, Turner should find it difficult to run on Minnesota.

 
Marshawn Lynch over LaDainian Tomlinson
Neither have lived up to their billing this year, but Lynch will be more of a fantasy championship hero than LT.  He has a sweet matchup against Denver.  LT has to face Tampa, who has given up nice games to the Carolina backs and Turner in the past couple weeks, butare still a far better unit than Denver.

Wide Receiver
 
Wes Welker over Andre Johnson 
I’ll try my luck with Welker again.  He should be able to produce vs. Arizona.  If the weather is bad, they may lean heavily on him.  Andre Johnson is coming off a huge effort, but has to face Nnamdi Asomugha.
 
  
Anthony Gonzalez over Terrell Owens
With Marvin Harrison out, Gonzalez should play a bigger role as Indy takes on Jacksonville.  The Whiner goes up against Baltimore.

SUPER STRETCH 
    
Shaun Hill over Tony Romo
Shaun Hill has a nice matchup this week against St. Louis.  He should put up solid numbers.  Romo has to face an angry Baltimore squad.  I don’t envy him this week.