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NFL Week 2 Fantasy Fill-ins

18 September 2009


Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills – He didn’t take any shots deep against New England, but look for that to change against Tampa Bay.  With T.O. and Lee Evans he should be able to stretch the defense.  He has great a safety valve in Fred Jackson when he can’t hit his wides.

Leon Washington, RB, New York Jets - Fred Jackson was able to do some damage in the passing game last week.  Look for Washington to do the same as the Jets try to keep it simple for Mark Sanchez.  Bill Belichick is known for trying to confuse young QBs. 

Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs - The Raiders D looked great, but playing on the road should be a little tougher.  Sproles may have looked better overall than LT, but LT still ran the ball better.  Johnson should have some success.

Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants - I have a feeling that this game is going to be a shootout.  It’s hard to predict who will score the Giants’ passing TDs, but Smith should get plenty of targets and have a respectable amount of receiving yards.

Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle Seahawks - Housh and Carlson will garner the attention, allowing Burleson to have another nice game.  San Fran allowed Arizona’s #2 WR Jerheme Urban to go for 74 yards last week.

Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore Ravens - Tight Ends pretty much had their way with San Diego last year.  The trend continued this year as Zach Miller had a great game.  Of course, Oakland has limited weapons, but Heap is still a solid play this week.  He’s coming off a big game of his own.

Shaun Suisham, K, Washington Redskins - Shaun gets to take on St. Louis at home.  St. Louis got smoked last week, but allowed just 4 PATs.  I’m guessing Washington sputters a time or two in field goal range, which should lead to a multiple FG game for Suisham.

Washington Redskins D/ST – St. Louis made Seattle’s D look like the ’86 Bears last week.  Washington looks like as good of choice as any to produce fantasy points.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:
Brett Favre vs. Eli Manning – I lost, Eli crushed Favre 16.5 to 9.5
Darren Sproles vs. Derrick Ward  I lost as Ward outscored Sproles 14.3 to 12.6
Chester Taylor vs. LenDale White – I lost LenDale squeaked by 3.3 to 3.0.
Chad Ochocinco vs. Dwayne Bowe – I lost by a hair.  Bowe’s 10.0 t0 Chad’s 9.7.
Marques Colston vs. Andre Johnson – Finally won.  Colston 9.0, A.J. 3.5
SS:  Peyton Hillis vs. Clinton Portis – I lost.  Portis 7.2, Hillis 0.8

Regular Picks: 1-4
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  1-5

Season Record
Regular Picks: 1-4
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 1-5

Week 2 Picks:

QB

Ben Roethlisberger profile Tony Romo profile
Ben Roethlisberger over Tony Romo

Both QBs threw for over 350 yards last week, but I feel Big Ben will have to answer the call again because of Pittsburgh’s lacks a running game.  Big Ben has the easier matchup against Chicago (Romo faces the Giants), but Ben is on the road while Romo is at home.  The Giants are going to put a lot of pressure on Romo, which could force him into some turnovers.  They’ll also use a mix of Marion Barber III and Felix Jones in what should be an intense game.  Chicago just lost Brian Urlacher for the  year, which should make things a little easier for Big Ben.

RBs

Adrian Peterson profile Matt Forte profileKevin Smith profile
Adrian Peterson over Matt Forte and Kevin Smith combined

I’m doing the first 2-for-1 special of the year.  I’ll take last year’s leading rusher against two second-year backs.  I’m counting on AP to do his damage early because he could be watching the game on the sidelines in the 4th quarter as Minnesota draws Detroit.  Forte (Pittsburgh) and Smith (Minnesota) both face tough run defenses.  Although both are capable of picking up yardage in the passing game, I’m guessing neither back scores this week.

Ryan Grant profile Michael Turner profile
Ryan Grant over Michael Turner

Ryan Grant got off to a decent start against the Bears last week, and he should follow that up with a strong effort against Cincinnati at home.  Michael Turner had a somewhat disappointing start against Miami last week, and although he’s also at home, I would temper my expectations.  He’s playing a Carolina team that got dominated by Philadelphia.  They are going to come out firing to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke.  Plus, the last time Turner played Carolina he scored 4 TDs, which I’m sure the Panthers were reminded of several times this week.

WRs

Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots Houston Texans 2009 Football Headshots
Brandon Marshall over Andre Johnson

I’m going to pick on AJ once again.  I think he has a tough matchup going on the road to Tennessee.  Schaub is going to be under heavy pressure, and Johnson is going to draw plenty of attention.  After dealing with Darrelle Revis last week, he’ll have to deal with Cortland Finnegan this week.  Meanwhile, Marshall faces Cleveland.  He has another week to get acclimated to the offense, and Orton’s getting healthier.

Minnesota Vikings 2009 Football Headshots   Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots
Percy Harvin over Chad Ochocinco
Brett Favre threw his first TD as a Viking to Percy, and I think the Rookie will find a way to get into the end zone again against the Lions.  He is so explosive and when the Lions try to stop AP, Harvin will get loose.  Ocho has to face Green Bay’s tough Defense.  They forced Cutler into 4 INTs.  While I don’t see Palmer making that many mistakes, the Bengals offense isn’t in sync right now.  It’s not going to happen in Lambeau this weekend.

Super Stretch

Philadelphia Eagles 2009 Football Headshots   Steven Jackson profile
LeSean McCoy +2 over Steven Jackson

With McNabb out, the Eagles are going to have to run the ball more to move the chains and keep Drew Brees and company off the field.  While Westbrook should be in line for a big game, the Eagles will have to use a heavy dose of McCoy as well to make sure Westy doesn’t get banged up.  I’m taking on a top six fantasy pick in S-Jax so I’ll spot McCoy 2 points. Jackson faces Washington, who kept Brandon Jacobs in check, on the road.  Look for them to do the same to Action Jackson.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week.  Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – Matt had his way against the Rams last week, but I think that’s going to be a familiar tune in St. Louis.  He faces the 49ers next week, and while they aren’t going to confuse anyone for Pittsburgh, Mike Singletary has his team believing and they are going to get after it on Defense.  Kurt Warner didn’t look particularly well against the Niners last week, and even without two of his top three wides, he still has more weapons than Hasselbeck.  Bonus:  Don’t count on Julius Jones to repeat.

Steve Slaton, Houston Texans – Albert Haynesworth may not be in Tennessee anymore, but that Titan Defense is still very tough.  A trendy pick to earn a Wildcard spot, Houston is in danger of falling to 0-2.  Tennessee is also in danger of falling to 0-2.  They are going to do their best to shut down the rushing attack and put pressure on Matt Schaub.  Bonus:  Don’t rely on Schaub this week.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - Forte faced a tough Packer defense to open the season and things get worse.  He takes on Pittsburgh at home.  He was limited to 55 yards on 25 carries (2.2 ypc) in the opener, and, perhaps even more concerning, he did not catch a pass after leading all RBs in that category last week.  One bright spot is not having to face Troy Polamalu, but the forecast is still not sunny for Forte.  Bonus:  Avoid Jay Cutler as well.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys - Roy started the season off on the right foot with 3 catches for 86 yards and a score last week against Tampa Bay, but the Giants are going a much more difficult challenge for the Boys.  The G-Men are going to get after Romo, and I see him relying more on Witten and his Backs this week.

Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals - Ocho had a nice game with 5 catches for 89 yards against Denver.  They are going to find out the Packers’ defense is much stiffer than the Broncos’.  To me this could be one of those ugly games where they muster only 150-180 passing yards or so, which would make Ocho a risky play.  Bonus:  Avoid all Bengals this week.


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