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Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars - I have to mention him since he’s facing the sorry Tennessee Titans, but I must warn you, I have a bad feeling about this one.  This could be a trap play for your fantasy team.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos - He doesn’t make mistakes and Brandon Marshall is playing great football.  Plus, Baltimore has struggled against the pass this year.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears - I believe “Good” Jay will show up this week and torch the Browns.  They will have a hard time containing Greg Olsen and Devin Hester is coming into his own.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers - LT always kills the Raiders (131 total yards/game & 23 TDs in 17 games).  They can’t stop the run, and he’s getting his feet under him.

Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets - Greene makes a nice flex-play against the Dolphins despite the tough matchup.  The Jets are fully committed to the run and they should be able to do so at home against the Fins.

Mike Bell, RB, Atlanta Falcons - Bell also makes a good flex play as he’s getting the ball around the stripe.  The Saints’ offense is humming.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars - #1 WRs have dominated their banged up secondary all year, including Sims-Walker for 91 yards and 2 TDs in Week 4.  He won’t reach those lofty numbers, but he should be solid.

Devin Hester, WR, Chicago Bears - See Jay Cutler above.

Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills - He’s actually played well with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will be under Center again as the Bills face Houston.

James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers - The Vikes have struggled a bit against teams with good 3rd WRs (72 yards and a TD to Mike Wallace, 48 yards to Kelley Washington, and 47 yards and a TD to Jordy Nelson).  Now that Jones is in that role for the Pack, he’s a good bet to do well.  The Packers are going to be fired up as they welcome Brett back.

Tony Scheffler, TE, Denver Broncos - Scheffler has been a nice target for Orton the past couple of weeks.

Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders - The Chargerss have struggled containing Tight Ends the past couple of seasons, including Miller in Week 1 of this year.

Robbie Gould, K, Chicago Bears - It goes without saying that bad teams allow a lot of points.  Gould faces Cleveland, who’s 26th in the leauge with 11 FGs allowed.

Matt Prater, K, Denver Broncos - The Ravens have struggled defending the pass, but their D can buckle down when they need to.  They are 30th in the league with 13 FGs allowed.  I can see the Broncos moving the chains only to have their drive stalled out in FG range.

Arizona Cardinals Defense/Special Teams - Arizona is getting after it on D, and they face Carolina who is trying to find their identity.  Better yet, it’s a home game.

San Diego Chargers Defense/Special Teams - LT isn’t the only thing slipping in San Diego, but the Raiders should be just what the Doctor ordered.

Chicago Defense/Special Teams - The Browns are a mess.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week:
Donovan McNabb over Tony Romo:  Loser – McNabb 11.9, Romo 30.65
Thomas Jones over Cedric Benson:  Loser – TJ 18.4, Benson 24.9
LaDainian Tomlinson over Pierre Thomas:  Winner – LT 7.3, PT 4.4
Austin Collie over Miles Austin:  Loser – Collie9.6, Austin 29.1
Santonio Holmes over Steve Smith +4:  Loser – Holmes 6, SS 13.9 (9.9 actual +4)
SS: Joseph Addai over Adrian Peterson:  Loser – Addai 12.7, AP 18.9

Regular Picks:  1-4
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  1-5

Season Record
Regular Picks: 16-18
Super Stretch Picks:  1-6
Overall: 17-24

Week 8 Picks

Quarterback

Kyle Orton over Eli Manning
Baltimore’s pass defense isn’t what it used to be and Orton has developed a nice connection with Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Eli is going to be blitzed heavily by the Eagles, which could lead to some early mistakes.

Running Backs

Steven Jackson over Michael Turner
Steven Jackson has yet to score this season, but something tells me he scores multiple TDs against the lowly Lions. Turner faces the Saints, who gave up three scores to Ricky last week, but for the most part has been solid against the run this year.

Kevin Smith over Ray Rice
S-Jax isn’t the only RB that should excel in the Rams-Lions game. Kevin Smith should put up solid numbers as well. Rice will be challenged by Denver’s #3 run D.

Wide Receivers

Mike Sims-Walker over Greg Jennings
Sims-Walker killed Tennesse last time out with 2 TDs, just like all #1 WRs have done this year to the Titans. Jennings hasn’t performed like a #1 WR of late.  The Vikings did a good job with Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes last week, plus Green Bay’s line will have their hands full with Jared Allen and the boys.  I don’t like Jennings this week.

Brandon Marshall over Larry Fitzgerald
Like I said, Baltimore has been vulnerable against the pass and Marshall is motivated by a contract extension that appears close. Fitz has been good, not great, this year and faces the league’s #1 pass defense.

SUPER STRETCH

Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton over DeAngelo Williams
In order to make up for my poor Super Stretch start, I’m rolling the dice by picking three Sophomore RBs to topple the superior D-Will (Chris Johnson may have more points, but most came in that one game). Forte (#31 ranked Cleveland), CJ (#13 Jax), and Slaton (#32 Buffalo) draw better opponents than DeAngelo (#1 Arizona).

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

With the bye weeks upon us, you can’t necessarily sit the guys on this list unless you have great depth, but expect a drop in production.

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants - Eli has averaged 206.5 passing yards, 3.7 rushing yards, with 12 passing TDs, 10 INTs, and 1 rushing TD in ten career games against the Eagles, which works out to be roughly 13.5 fantasy points per game.  They are also playing in Philly.  Here’s a look at his past two games at The Linc:

2008:  17 of 31, 191 yards, TD, 2 INTs
2007:  17 of 31, 219 yards, INT

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos - Knowshon has an impressive start to his NFL career, but I recommend using another option if possible as he takes on the Ravens in Baltimore.  Though his only rushing TD came on the road, he is averaging just 51 yards per game on the ground away from Invesco Field at Mile High.  He also has just one catch on the road for -1 yard.

Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore Ravens - Mason gets to face a heavy dose of Champ Bailey and Denver’s strong passing defense.  The Broncos have allowed just three passing TDs this year.  Mason is playing at home, where he is actually less productive.
Home – 3 games, 9 catches, 165 yards (55/gm), 1 TD
Away – 3 games, 17 catches, 216 yards (72/gm), 2 TDs

Since 2007:
Home – 19 games, 84 catches, 985 yards (51.8/gm), 4 TDs
Away – 19 games, 125 catches, 1520 yards (80/game), 9 TDs

Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers - The Colts have been tough against the pass all year long, and have been especially tough on opposing Tight Ends.  They held Marcedes Lewis, Anthony Fasano, Anthony Becht, Stephen Spacht, John Carlson, Bo Scaife, and Randy McMichael  to a combined 18 catches for 137 yards this year.

New York Giants Defense/Special Teams - The Giants have had one of the best defenses this season, but they draw a tough matchup this week against the Eagles.  If they can’t put pressure on Donovan McNabb, it could be a long day in Philly for the G-Men.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

Bye weeks are here.  I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with byes, an injury, or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Trent Edwards – Trent faces a Miami team that has allowed 235.3 ypg (27th in the league) and 9 TDs (tied for 16th).  He held his own last week against San Diego (25 of 30 for 261 yards, TD), which had to be a confidence booster for a guy coming back from a concussion.
Stat Line:  21 of 35 for 277 yards, INT, 4 carries for 17 yards.  Sorry. 

RB
Thomas Jones - This is the third week in a row I’ve endorsed TJ.  First he scored three TDs vs. Cincy.  Then he ripped Oakland for 159 yards.  This week he faces Kansas City’s Run D that has allowed a league-worst 207.2 ypg and 12 TDs.
Stat Line:  14 carries for 54 yards, TD, 1 catch for 6 yards.

Cedric Benson - As long as he doesn’t get arrested on Saturday, not out of the realm of possibilities for Benson or a Bengal, he should have a decent game against Houston.  They are 22nd in the league with 122 ypg and have allowed 11 rushing TDs, which trails only Kansas City’s 12. 
Stat Line:  13 carries for 49 yards, 2 catches for 20 yards

WR
Lance Moore - With Reggie Bush out Lance Moore should be more involved in the short passing game for New Orleans.  If weather plays a factor in London like last year, Brees may be more likely to call his number on quick slants.
Stat Line:  6 catches for 90 yards, TD

Kevin Curtis - I always seem to take a flier on a guy who may or may not play.  This week that guy is Kevin Curtis.  He should make his season debut against Atlanta this week.  He appears to be fully recovered from a sports hernia injury and could resume his role as McNabb’s favorite target.
Stat Line: 3 catches for 45 yards.  Hey, it was more than T.O. had.

TE
Billy Miller - It appears that Jeremey Shockey may miss or be limited in this week’s game vs. San Diego.  I’ve been endorsing TEs that play San Diego for a few weeks now.  They have a bad track record this year covering Tight Ends. 
Stat Line:   7 catches for 82 yards.

K
Matt Bryant - Dallas has allowed 17 FGs and 67 Kicker points this year, which trails only San Francisco.  Seattle plays SF and I can’t endorse anybody from the Seahawks at this point.  Tampa is moving the ball well though and Bryant, who is 14 for 16 on FGs and 17 for 17 on PATs, should deliver the goods.
Stat Line:  3 FGs

DEF
New York Jets - Sorry that I’m picking them again this week, but have you watched the Chief this year?  They are awful.  The have had a revolving door at QB, Larry Johnson is making Mike Tyson look like a Saint, and their Run Defense looks like the computer’s on Tecmo Football.  I think Chris Johnson actually used the “Zig-Zag” method last week.  I expect multiple Sacks and INTs for the home team.
Stat Line:  4 Sacks.  Sorry.

Check back after the games to see an updated stat line.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Jake Delhomme (17.75) beat Aaron Rodgers (14.1) WHICH I WON
Earnest Graham (12.5) over Ronnie Brown (2.8) WHICH I WON
Chris Johnson (23.2) beat Marshawn Lynch (15.2) WHICH I WON
Andre Johnson (14.1) over Brandon Marshall +1 (9.4  [8.4 Actual plus spotted point]) WHICH I WON
Chad Ocho Cinco (11.2) beat Devin Hester (2.2) WHICH I LOST
Super Stetch:  Jeff Garcia (22.3) over Eli Manning (11.65) WHICH I WON

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0   
Overall:  5-1  
Breakdown: QB: 2-0, RB: 2-0, WR:  1-1

Quarterback
 
Matt Cassel over Eli Manning         
Cassel has 5 TDs and 1 INT at home and 1 TD and 3 INTs on the road.  He’s at home this week vs. St. Louis, who has allowed 231.2 ypg (25th) and 9 TDs (tied for 16th).  He’s also coming off a three TD performance on MNF, which had to be good for the confidence.  Eli heads out on the road to Pittsburgh, who has allowed 158.7 ypg (1st) and 5 TDs (tied for 3rd).

Running Backs
 
Thomas Jones over Michael Turner
I predicted a nice three-game string for TJ prior to his 3 TD game vs. Cincy.  Last week he lit up Oakland for 159 yards.  I expect him to continue the run against Kansas City, who is just awful.  They gave up 332 rushing yards and 4 TDs to Tennessee.  Meanwhile, Michael Turner’s trend is to destroy bad teams and be mediocre against good ones.  220 & 2 TDs vs Detroit (29th Run D), 104 & 3 TDs vs. KC (32nd), and 121 & 1 TD vs. GB (28th).  On the flip side he had 42 vs. Tampa (12th), 56 vs. Carolina (20th), and 54 vs. Chicago (10th).  This week they face Philly on the road.  Philly is 7th with 91.5 ypg and tied for 4th with 3 TDs allowed.

 
Willis McGahee over Brandon Jacobs
Willis showed some life last week with 105 yards and a TD on 19 carries vs. Miami.  He should be productive again this week facing Oakland, who is giving up 136.2 ypg (24th) and 9 TDs (tied for 25th).  Jacobs is killing it with 6 TDs in his past four games.  Even in his first two games, which he didn’t score, he ran for 116 & 93.  This week though he faces Pittsburgh’s tough D.  They are second with just 69.7 ypg and tied for 4th with 3 TDs.  Jacobs is big enough to score on anyone, but I’m not banking on it this week.

Wide Receiver
 
Santana Moss over Reggie Wayne
I’ll pit these former Hurricanes against each other this week.  Santana has the cushy matchup against Detroit, who has allowed 251.2 ypg (31st) and 11 TDs (tied for 28th).  It’s always tough going up against Wayne, but Detroit is that bad.  Meanwhile Wayne draws Tennessee, who has allowed 179 ypg (5th) and just 1 TD.

 
Isaac Bruce over Torry Holt
Let’s have some fun and pit these two former teammates against each other.  Bruce is facing Seattle, who’s swift fall is mimicking that of Shaun Alexander (only a couple years later).  They have allowed 242.2 ypg (29th) and 10 TDs (tied for 24th).  Holt is matched up against New England, who has allowed 196.0 ypg (14th) and 10 TDs (tied for 24th).
         

SUPER STRETCH
 
Malcom Floyd over Terrell Owens
Floyd has 140 yard and 2 TDs in his last two games.  He provides a big target for Philip Rivers at 6’5″, 225 pounds.  He faces New Orleans Pass D, which has allowed 222.4 ypg (21st) and 9 TDs (tied for 16th).  I do caution you though about the weather in London.  Last year the Giants-Dolphins game was a mess.  I’ll take my chances in the Super Stretch though.  T.O. has had just 2 catches in three of his last five games.  The Cowboys will be without Romo again this week.  Tampa Bay has allowed 201.1 ypg (15th) and and 9 TDs (tied for 16th).