Happy Anniversary Mom & Dad!

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning:  Winner Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Loser Beanie15.3, LT 18.3
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson:  Incomplete Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2:  Ocho 8.9, Marshall (actual +2) 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek:  Loser Finley 8.0, Celek18.1
SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles:  Loser Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks:  2-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 37-39-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-12
Overall: 43-51-1

Week 17 Picks

Chicago Bears 2009 Football Headshots Tony Romo
Jay Cutler over Tony Romo

Cutler is coming off a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD to INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots Thomas Jones
Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones

I’m going with the Rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 match-up. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s 2nd ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

Matt Forte Ricky Williams
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams

It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th ranked run defense (125.7 ypg) while Ricky should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs.

Tennessee Titans 2009 Football Headshots Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots
Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco

Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn them deep. Meanwhile Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

Steve Breaston profile Miles Austin profile
Steve Breaston over Miles Austin

Breaston faces Green Bay, who despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, have allowed 28 passing TDs. That ranks them 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

SUPER STRETCH
Jason Snelling profile Beanie Wells profile Tim Hightower profile
Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)

I suspect that Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) with 16 rushing TDs allowed. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s #1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the match-ups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

First off, avoid Colts starters like the plague. I’m sure you gathered that already from last week. San Diego has nothing to play for, so be leery of using their starters.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Romo has seemed to put the December Blues behind him, but with the division up for grabs, you can’t help but remember the egg he laid in Philadelphia to end last season. He’s playing at home this time, which should help, but keep in mind he averages just 237.9 passing yards at home. Plus, he has just one TD pass in each of his past two games.

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins
Houston jumped out on Miami last week, which took Ricky out of the game. Pittsburgh will attempt to do the same this week. They also have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league allowing just 89.3 yards per game and six rushing TDs.

Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs, RBs, New York Giants
The Giants have pretty much mailed it in after their embarrassing loss to Carolina. Jacobs won’t likely play as he’s banged up and the Giants are out of it. Bradshaw will get the bulk of the work, but faces a Vikings team sporting a stingy run defense and still jockeying for playoff positioning.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Ocho becomes Darrelle Revis’ latest victim. If I were him, I wouldn’t waste my time coming up with a TD celebration for this week.

Dwyane Bowe & Chris Chambers, WRs, Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are reeling, but they are still tough against the pass allowing just 201.0 yards per game. Matt Cassel has struggled on the road averaging just 185.3 yards and 1 TD.

Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre:  Winner Hasselbeck 17.1, Favre 11.2
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2:  Winner Charles 23.0, Mendenhall 19.1 (17.1 actual +2)

Arian Foster over Ryan Grant:  Loser Foster 2.0, Grant 9.7

Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson:  Loser Moss 13.0, DeSean 20.9

Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten:  Winner Finley 13.4, Witten 4.4
SS:  Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams:  Winner Ganther 10.0, D-Will 1.6

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 35-37-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-11
Overall: 41-48-1

Week 16 Picks

Alex Smith profile Peyton Manning
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning
I pair these former #1 picks that have had completely different paths to where they are today. Manning is having the second best season of his Hall of Fame career. Alex Smith is coming off a bad game against the Eagles, but has been very productive of late. Smith should absolutely pick apart the Lions this week. Meanwhile, there is debate as to how much Manning will play this week. Plus, the Jets defense is tough against the pass.

Beanie Wells profile Ladainian Tomlinson profile
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson
I pit a young, talented RB just kicking off his career against a Hall of Fame RB winding down his career. Both RBs have picked up steam as the season went on, but I feel it’s Beanie who will be more productive this week as he takes on St. Louis. LT goes up against Tennessee, who despite the recent injuries on defense, should put up more of a fight. That and they struggle defending the pass, which means Philip Rivers and Co. will be very busy.

Ryan Grant Profile Steven Jackson profile
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson
Grant is quietly putting together another solid year. He should go over 1200 yards, possibly this week as he takes on a Seattle team that’s going nowhere. December has been his best month as he has 8 TDs in 11 games, vs. 9 in the remaining 34. Jackson is gutting it out despite being all banged up. Jackson is playing on the road, where he averages 28.1 fewer total yards and has scored just one TD.

Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2
Marshall and Ocho have very similar numbers this year with Marshall having a slight edge. I believe that Ocho will score again this week to honor his fallen teammate. Marshall is playing in Philly so I’ll spot him 20 yards.

Jermichael Finley profile Brent Celek profile
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek
I’m going to ride Finley’s hot hand again as he takes on Seattle’s putrid pass defense. The Broncos are going to give the Eagles a fight, and I’m lowering my expectations on all of their offensive stars.

SUPER STRETCH
Jason Snelling profile Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots
Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles
Snelling should get to run as the lead back as the Falcons take on Buffalo’s league-worst run defense. Not only will he get the bulk of the carries between the 20′s, but will get the rock at the stripe. Charles has been amazing the second half of the season, but runs into a stingy Cincinnati run defense in what should be an emotional home game for the Bengals.

Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Romo is breathing a little easier now that he got the December monkey off his back. Meanwhile, Favre’s got a little heavier with the loss to the Panthers. Despite the Saints’ loss, they are off in the distance for home field advantage. Meanwhile the Eagles are charging hard. Brad Childress is starting to panic a bit, as Favre admits he was almost pulled last week. All of this does not make me comfortable when choosing a starting QB for the fantasy football championship game.

For you numbers hounds (like myself), Favre is averaging 199.8 yards in his last 11 December games with 11 TDs to 17 INTS. When it’s been below 40 degrees he averages 197.6 yards with 5 TDs and 9 INTs. The game is at Chicago this week.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
On the flip side for the Vikings, their run defense allowed their first 100 yard rusher since 2007 when Jonathan Stewart torched them on Sunday Night Football. Their defense responded in a big way after the Cardinals loss, shutting down Cincinnati. The Bears offense is so dysfunctional. I see a long day for Forte, who had just 61 total yards when he faced the Vikings in Week 12.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Charles has looked like Chris Johnson Lite the past six weeks. This week he’ll face a stiffer test when he takes on the emotional Cincinnati Bengals, who did a nice job limiting LT last week. The Bengals rank third in the league with 85.2 rushing yards allowed per game, and have allowed just 8 rushing TDs.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
I was premature calling for the Colts to rest up some of their players. We’re a week closer to the season wrapping up, and the likelihood improves. Even if Wayne plays the whole game, he’ll have to face Darrelle Revis. Peyton is more than comfortable going to Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon if Wayne can’t get any separation.

Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Mason had seven catches for 62 yards and a score the last time he faced Pittsburgh (Week 12). The Steelers managed to escape their slugfest against Green Bay with a victory to keep their playoffs hopes alive. This time they tangle in Pittsburgh. I’m expecting a knock em down, drag em out affair where the weather could play a key role.

Other guys I don’t love this week:
QB: Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco
RB: LT, Marion Barber III, Maurice Morris, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy
WR: DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, T.J. Housmandzadeh, Jerricho Cotchery
TE: Todd Heap, John Carlson, Kevin Boss

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Vince Young over Carson Palmer: Winner VY 15.0, Palmer 9.7
Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady:  Loser Big Ben 11.05, Brady 13.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton:  Loser Fitzpatrick 10.0, Orton 22.95
Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2:  Winner Charles 24.1, Forte 8.8 (6.8 actual +2)
Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant:  Loser Walter 1.7, Bryant 2.2
SS: Joe Flacco over Brett Favre:  Winner Flacco 15.7, Favre 14.4

Regular Picks:  2-3
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 32-35-1
Super Stretch Picks:  5-11
Overall: 37-46-1

Week 15 Picks
Matt Hasselbeck profile Brett Favre profile photo
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre

I’m gonna pick on Favre again this week to make him prove the December thing is over. He’s averaging 197.4 yards, 1.1 TDs, and 1.6 INTs in his last ten December games. He faces a Carolina pass defense that is sixth in the league with 192.4 passing yards allowed and tied for third with 13 passing TDs allowed. Hasselbeck faces Tampa Bay, who ranks 28th with 24 passing TDs allowed.

Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots Rashard Mendenhall profile
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2
Charles has been great for the Chiefs despite all of their inadequacies.Look for him to torch Cleveland’s 28th ranked run defense (148.1 ypg). They’re also 23rd with 14 rushing TDs allowed. I’ll spot Mendenhall 20 yards, but that still should not be enough against the stingy Packers run defense that’s allowed just 85.0 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

Houston Texans 2009 Football Headshots Ryan Grant Profile
Arian Foster over Ryan Grant
Foster is the latest Texan RB to take a crack at duplicating last year’s success. His path starts out smooth against St. Louis, who’s 27th in rushing yards allowed (147.2) and 31st in rushing TDs allowed (19). Grant is quietly putting together a nice season, but draws a tough match-up against Pittsburgh, who’s allowed 84.9 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

D045594050.JPG DeSean Jackson
Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson
Most people wouldn’t touch Moss with a ten-foot pole in this match-up considering what went down last week. I’m from the camp that feels he’s respond to his critics with a big game. If you recall, the last time he faced the Bills he had 12 catches for 141 yards. The Patriots know they need Moss if they are going to challenge for another Super Bowl. Look for Brady to patch things up with his arm. San Francisco played inspired on Monday Night Football, and will try to bring that same energy to Philadelphia. The Niners give up yards in the air, but have only allowed 13 passing TDs, which ties them for third in the league.

Jermichael Finley profile Jason Witten profile
Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten
Finley’s size, speed, and athleticism make him a tough cover. Aaron Rodgers has been looking to him more in recent weeks. Pittsburgh is going to blitz Rodgers early and often so Finley could rack up the check-down looks. Jason Witten has played better of late, but draws a tough match-up against New Orleans.

SUPER STRETCH
Quinton Ganther profile DeAngelo Williams profile
Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams
Ganther takes on the Giants, who are ranked 29th with 17 rushing TDs allowed. He also contributes in the passing game, which makes him a nice sneaky play. D-Will takes on the Vikings, who haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since 2007. They rank fourth in rushing yards per game (86.9) and are tied with New England for the fewest rushing TDs allowed (3). Carolina lost RT Jeff Otah for the year so they’ll have to take on the Vikings’ front four without either starting Tackle.

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick some fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Indianapolis Colts’ Offense (Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark)
The Colts wrapped up home field advantage so they really have nothing to play for. They aren’t concerned with a perfect season, and will do everything in their power to keep them out of harm’s way. I wouldn’t expect many second-half minutes for this crew.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
The Saints, unlike the Colts, have indicated that a perfect season is important to them, which is not good news for a team in a December funk. With each December loss, the pressure mounts on Romo. The Superdome is going to be incredibly loud, which will make it hard for the Boys to get into a rhythm. Oh, and the Saints have a pretty stout defense. They are tied for third with just 13 passing TDs allowed.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
In an even greater free fall than the Cowboys is the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. They are in complete disarray. They are struggling to run the football, which will feed right into Green Bay’s hands. Green Bay is in a virtual tie for first with just 85.0 rushing yards allowed and ranks fourth with 4 rushing TDs allowed.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
LT has been sharing the workload all season long, and will do some this week as well. He faces Cincinnati, who is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Vikings. They will be plenty motivated to put that behind them. Cincy is third in the league with 86.4 rushing yards allowed, and tied for ninth with 8 rushing TDs allowed.

R
oddy White, Atlanta Falcons
Roddy is putting together another fine year, but draws the unfortunate match-up with Darrelle Revis.  Revis has been blanketing #1′s all season long, and Roddy is next in line. The Jets rank first with 160.4 passing yards and 7 passing TDs allowed.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roddy isn’t the only person that will have to deal with a shutdown corner this week. Santonio Holmes will be blanketed by Charles Woodson. Green Bay is also tough against the pass, ranking third with 187.0 passing yards allowed.

Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks. Also check out this week’s Fourth & 1 Debate as we discuss unheralded players who will step in up this week (click here for the article).



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Philip Rivers over Drew Brees:  Loser Rivers 26.65, Brees 28.95
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams:  Winner Forte 15.6 Ricky 8.1
Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant: Winner J-Stew 18.6, Grant 4.1
Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald:  Loser Maclin 8.3, Fitz 20.3
Austin Collie over Chris Chambers:  Winner Collie 7.8, Chambers 1.1
SS:
Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens:  Loser Thomas 2.5, T.O. 3.1

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 30-32-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-11
Overall: 34-43-1

Week 14 Picks

Quarterbacks
Vince Young Carson Palmer
Vince Young over Carson Palmer
VY is facing a St. Louis team that ranks 25th in total yards allowed (363.7) and 28th in points allowed per game (26.2). They are actually middle of the road in passing yards allowed per game (217.5), but VY is a unique athlete that can contribute with both his arm and his feet. I just don’t see the Rams containing him. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer takes on the Vikings, who are coming off a bad loss, on the road. Jared Allen failed to record even a tackle last week so you just know he’ll be looking for redemption. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

Ben Roethlisberger Tom Brady headshot
Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady

This is a battle of multiple Super Bowl winners that find their teams in a free fall. I think they’ll both win this week, but I like Big Ben to put up better fantasy numbers. Big Ben plays Cleveland’s 26th ranked pass defense (246.1) The Browns have allowed 18 passing TDs on the year. Brady faces Carolina, who ranks 6th in passing yards allowed (192.4) and 5th in passing TDs allowed (12).

Buffalo Bills 2009 Football Headshots Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots
Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton

Fitzpatrick has looked good at times.He as least has shown the ability to get the ball to T.O. and Lee Evans. He has a favorable match-up this week against Kansas City who ranks 28th with 250.6 passing yards allowed and 24th with passing TDs allowed (21). Orton takes on the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts rank 4th with 11 passing TDs allowed.

Running Back
Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots Matt Forte
Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2

Who would have guessed coming into the year that I’d be spotting Matt Forte 20 yards in a head-to-head match-up with Jamaal Charles? Charles has averaged nearly 100 total yards and a score the last four weeks and has a juicy match-up against Buffalo’s league worst run defense (172.1 ypg). Forte takes on Green Bay’s 4th ranked run defense (97.2). The Pack has allowed just 4 rushing TDs.

Wide Receiver
Kevin Walter profile Antonio Bryant
Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant

Walter has played decent over the last four games averaging five catches for 60 yards. He takes on Seattle who is 25th in passing yards allowed (243.5) and 28th in passing TD allowed (22). Bryant will have to deal with Jets shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Have fun Antonio.

SUPER STRETCH
Baltimore Ravens 2009 Football Headshots Brett Favre profile photo
Joe Flacco over Brett Favre

Flacco hasn’t been nearly the same QB that he was earlier in the season. Things could change this week as he takes on Detroit’s league worst pass defense (274.8 yards, 28 TDs). Favre has struggled the past few seasons in December. He forced a couple of passes last week, which he’s avoided for most of the year. I’m afraid that he’s opened Pandora’s Box and he could do more of the same this week. He faces Cincinnati who ranks 12th in passing yards allowed (211.5), 8th in passing TDs allowed (13), and 6th in INTs (14).

Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Arizona made Brett Favre look human last week. It won’t get easier when he takes on Cincinnati’s 13th ranked pass defense this week. In his nine December since 2007 Favre is averaging 198.0 yards with 10 TDs and 15 INTs. Compare that to the 257.0 yards, 66 TDs and 27 INTs he had in the 35 September/October/November games, and you have an alarming trend.

Marion Barber III, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys take on the red hot San Diego Chargers. They’ll likely have to turn to the air to keep up with the Chargers’ high-scoring offense. Dallas will probably be tight because if they drop a second consecutive December game, the heat will be on. Plus, Barber is splitting carries making him a unattractive start for the opening of the fantasy playoffs.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
I didn’t look far for the other RB I think will struggle this week. LT faces Dallas’ 9th ranked run defense. He’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and 62.7 total yards per game. He’s made up for it with nine rushing TDs. That is the Cowboys’ strength though, as they have allowed just five rushing TDs all year. Plus, he’s no longer used in the passing game. When you stack up all the strikes against LT this week, he looks like a marginal fantasy play this week.

Antonio Bryant, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know Bryant went on a ridiculous run last year around this time. I know he had 91 yards and a score in Week 12 and 116 yards in Week 13. However, I also know that he faces shutdown corner Darelle Revis this week. He’s been murder on #1 WRs this year, and I would hesitate to test him in the fantasy playoffs.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
I know you can’t bench Wayne, but I would expect a decrease in production this week. He has only seven receptions for 67 yards the past two weeks. Meanwhile Dallas Clark has 88 yards, Pierre Garcon has 199, and Austin Collie has 88. Peyton Manning will hit the open man. With Champ Bailey draped on him all day, more often than not it won’t be Wayne.

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Rodgers 29.9
Brees Loser 39.45 (38.45 actual)
Brady
Winner 13.05 (12.05 actual)
Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson: Loser Ricky 17.5, CJ 24.6
Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai: Loser Snelling 3.3, Addai 8.2
Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker: Tie Nate 4.6, Sims-Walker 4.6
Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR): Winner Crab 5.4, Smith 0.5
SS: Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell: Loser Boller20.7, Campbell 25.75

Regular Picks: 2-3-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 2-4-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 27-30-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-10
Overall: 31-40-1

Week 13 Picks

Quarterback
Philip Rivers Drew Brees profile
Philip Rivers over Drew Brees
Brees is coming off a monster win against the Patriots in which he lit them up like a Christmas tree. He’s due for a bit of a letdown as he takes on Washington on the road. The Skins have actually been solid against the pass, although they did play some of the worst QBs earlier in the year. Rivers should have an absolute field day against the Brownies.

Running Backs
Matt Forte Ricky Williams
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
Forte should be able to put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air against the lowly Saints. Meanwhile Ricky has to face New England following an embarrassing loss. They focus on shutting Ricky down as Henne can’t beat them.

Ryan Grant Profile
Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant
The Panthers best bet for winning is to pound to ball repeatedly with both J-Stew and D-Will. They should be able to do that with ease against Tampa Bay at home. Meanwhile, Ryan Grant faces Baltimore’s tough run defense.

Wide Receivers
Philadelphia Eagles 2009 Football Headshots
Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald
This match-up has concussion written all over it. Maclin should slide into the #1 role for the Eagles with DeSean Jackson likely to miss the game with a concussion. He should torch Atlanta. Meanwhile Fitz will likely have to deal with Matt Leinart again as Kurt Warner recovers from his concussion.

Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots Chris Chambers profile
Austin Collie over Chris Chambers

The last time the Colts played Tennessee scored a pair of TDs. It’s really pick-your-poison will all the weapons at Peyton Manning’s disposal. The Titans will key in on Wayne, Clark, and Addai, which should allow Collie to make some plays. Chambers has been great since coming over to Kansas City from San Diego. This week he faces Champ Bailey and their tough pass defense.

SUPER STRETCH
Jacksonville Jaguars 2009 Football Headshots Buffalo Bills 2009 Football Headshots
Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens
David Garrard is so much better playing at home. With this week’s game in Jacksonville Thomas has a chance to put up real solid numbers. Meanwhile T.O. will have to lock horns with Darrelle Revis and the Jets. He’s been in the business of shutting down #1 WRs, and this week should be no different.

Matt Forte

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Warner makes the list again this week, but it’s more a reflection on who he’s facing than anything. I’m confident he’ll be able to play this week, but he could have a hard time finishing the game against Minnesota’s front four. The Vikings lead the league with 40 Sacks, and it’s hard to have faith in a QB coming off a concussion against a defense that brings so much pressure.

I’m also iffy on Ben Roethlisberger coming off his concussion and facing the Raiders, who are tied for fourth with just ten passing TDs allowed.

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers
This is not a good week to use Ryan Grant. He faces Baltimore’s 6th ranked rushing defense (97.6 yards/gm). They are also tenth with just seven rushing TDs allowed. Grant plays at home, where he has actually been less productive.

Home:  87.5 total yards per game (72.5 rushing, 15.0 receiving)
Away:  111.0 total yards per games (91.0 rushing, 20.0 receiving)

Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants
Jacobs faces Dallas’ 9th ranked rushing defense (102.7 yards/gm). They allowed just five rushing TDs on the season. In his last four games against Dallas he has scored just one TD with an average of 84 total yards.  Not exactly numbers you can bank on in this crucial juncture of the season.

Terrell Owens, WR, Buffalo Bills
T.O. is on fire, but squares up against Darrelle Revis. The Jets are #2 against the pass with 175.7 yards allowed per game, and tops with just seven passing TDs allowed.  When the Bills faced the Jets in Week 6, T.O. was held to 13 yards on three catches.

Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Chambers has been a godsend for the Chiefs, especially with Dwayne Bowe serving his four-game suspension. This week though, he faces Champ Bailey and Denver’s 5th ranked passing defense (185 yards/gm). They are also tied for fourth with ten passing TDs allowed.


Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties