LestersLegends.com » Steven Jackson

The Rams selected their QB of the future in Sam Bradford. Unfortunately the pieces aren’t in place for him to turn things around too dramatically this year. At least there is hope.

 

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They take on the Saints on the road in Week 14 followed by home games against Kansas City and San Francisco. It’s not a terribly frightening schedule, but aside from Steven Jackson, who are you counting on from the Rams?

 

Five Star Fantasy Option
Steven Jackson – My hope is that Bradford will at least keep defenses honest. Jackson was such a warrior battling through injuries to amass 1738 total yards (1416 rushing) and 4 TDs. He could have easily quit given the Rams’ ineptitude, but he didn’t. Gotta respect that. If the team is any better, which I expect it to be, Jackson should easily be a top 5-8 fantasy RB.

 

Four Star Fantasy Options
None

 

Three Star Fantasy Options
Donnie Avery – Avery burned fantasy owners last year, so he should come at a value. He will have some consistency issues with a rookie QB under center, but he at least has a competent one this year.

 

Two Star Fantasy Options
Sam Bradford – I’m not the biggest fan of this year’s QB class, or rookie QBs in general, but Bradford has the tools. He could start the year watching A.J. Feeley, but you have to imagine he’ll get his opportunity.

 

One Star Fantasy Options
A.J. Feeley – While he’s probably an upgrade over the QBs the Rams had last year, he does not have a firm grip on the job. Even if he holds off Sam Bradford, he will eventually yield to the future.

 

Kenneth Darby & Chris Ogbonnaya – Unless Steven Jackson goes down, you needn’t worry about this duo.

 

Keenan Burton, Mardy Gilyard, Danny Amendola, Laurent Robinson – None of these options excite me, but Burton and Robinson, assuming they have recovered from injuries, are the ones to watch.

 

Daniel Fells & Michael Hoomanawanui - Neither TE does anything to excite me.

 

Rams Defense/Special Teams – The Rams’ D would have taken a step in the right direction if they took Ndamukong Suh. That said, I see why they wanted a franchise QB instead. There is no reason to think the Rams’ D will be fantasy worthy in 2010.

 

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Steven Jackson running
Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Steven Jackson showed signs last yer that he can still be a fantasy force when healthy.  Staying healthy is the tricky part though as he missed four games last year matching the four he missed in 2007.  Despite missing a quarter of the season S-Jax accumulated 1421 total yards (1042 rushing, 379 receiving) and 8 TDs (7 rushing).  The questions are whether Action Jackson can stay on the field and do they have enough pieces in place to allow Jackson to return to fantasy dominance.  He is likely going in picks 4-8 in most fantasy leagues so he’ll need to produce to justify that early selection.

Jackson will likely take on more of a leadership role with the Rams as Torry Holt and Orlando Pace have moved on.  Marc Bulger doesn’t appear to be the answer at QB.  Rookie Tackle Jason Smith should help, but he’ll having a learning curve.  The Rams will once again lean heavily on S-Jax.  If he can shoulder the load he’ll have a monster season.  If not he’ll break down and dash fantasy hopes once again.

Unfortunately for S-Jax owners, the Rams have a fairly difficult schedule with games against the Vikings, the Colts, and the Titans.  He does have a nice three-game stretch in which he plays Detroit, New Orleans, and Arizona.  For the fantasy playoffs the Rams face Tennessee, Houston, and Arizona.  If he can avoid the injury Jackson should be good for 1600 total yards and 12 TDs.


Written by
Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Maurice Jones Drew

It feels like fantasy owners have been waiting for Maurice Jones-Drew to become an elite fantasy running back for years.  He’s never rushed for over 1,000 yards or carried the ball more than 197 times (which he did last season), thanks to sharing carries with Fred Taylor since being drafted in the second round of 2006 out of UCLA.

Taylor is gone, now calling New England home, and Jones-Drew will finally get an opportunity to be the featured back.  In fact, his potential back-ups rushed the ball for a total of four carries last season and a whopping nine yards.  The only other back that has significant carries is Alvin Pearman, who set his career high with 39 carries back in 2005.  Needless to say, the offense is going to be on Jones-Drew’s shoulders.

At 5′7″ and just over 200 lbs., there is concern that he may not be able to handle the beating a full-time back takes, and those are fair.  He is shorter then Tiki Barber (5′10″), but we all know what Barber proved capable of doing.  Jones-Drew has shown over the past three seasons that he could make an impact, despite not carrying the ball all that often.  You cannot forget to factor in the times he received a pass.

Last season he set a career high with 62 receptions, after amassing 86 over his first two seasons.  Even if he were not to improve on that number with full-time snaps, very few backs supplement tremendous rushing ability with his type of receiving threat out of the backfield.  Only Matt Forte (63) caught more passes, with six other running backs amassing 50+ catches.  Needless to say, it’s a huge advantage.

Jones-Drew will also benefit from one of the strongest offensive lines in the game.  As well as getting back three starters back who missed at least part of last season, the team added Tra Thomas, a Pro Bowl left tackle, as a free agent signing and used their first round pick (#8 overall) on Eugene Monroe.  Adding those two pieces to an already strong line should give Jones-Drew plenty of holes to run through.

Let’s get one thing straight; Jones-Drew is a definite risk (outside of PPR leagues), especially if he’s being selected among the top two players on draft day.  He’s never had the opportunity to be the main back in the NFL so there is no telling how he is going to react.  With a career yards/carry of 4.8 to go along with a great receiving threat out of the backfield and a great line leading the way, this should be his chance to really shine, but you never know.

If asked to project out his season statistics, I would say:

Rushing – 1,275 yards, 13 TD
Receiving – 550 yards, 3 TD

That certainly equals a monster back, doesn’t it?  Still, for me, the risk doesn’t equate to the reward.  I’d much rather take an Adrian Peterson or Michael Turner with those first two picks.

What do you think?  Where would you peg his numbers for 2009?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Steven Jackson

It feels like every season Steven Jackson enters with a lot of expectations surrounding him.  Unfortunately, injuries have helped to derail his last two years, limiting him to just 12 games in each.  That still didn’t stop him from exceeding 1,000 yards, now having done so in each of the past four years.

It’s that 2006 season that everyone hopes he can duplicate.  That year he not only rushed for 1,528 yards and 13 TD, but added 90 catches for 806 yards and 3 TD.  Those are enormous numbers, ones that are unlikely to be duplicated under any circumstance, even with him basically consisting of the entire Rams offense.

Ronald Curry (newly acquired), Keenan Burton and Donnie Avery leading the way at the wide receiver position?  New tight end Randy McMichael may be the best receiver on the team, despite having just 11 receptions in four games last season.

Keep that in mind when looking at Jackson who has proven he can be a weapon out of the backfield.  Mark Bulger is going to need to get the ball to someone and with 38+ catches each of the past two seasons there is no reason to think that Jackson is not going to be a frequent target.  Is he going to reach 90 catches again?  Unlikely, but he certainly could get to 50+ if he stays on the field, a definite boost to his value.

That’s just an added bonus, however.  What owners really need to look at is his potential performance on the ground.  This is a team that is going to need to focus on defense and ball control and with new head coach Steve Spagnuolo (the former Giants defensive coordinator) at the helm that is exactly what they are likely to do.

The team added Mike Karney as the fullback, who played the last five seasons with the New Orleans Saints.  He started 46 games while in New Orleans, helping lead the way for Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush and company and surely will help clear the way for Jackson to break off some big runs.

They also made a major change along the offensive line, having drafted Jason Smith with the #2 pick overall in the 2008 draft.  He replaces Orlando Pace, a perennial Pro Bowler, who leaves big shoes to fill.  While it’s going to be tough, Pace was 33-years old, so getting younger and more athletic could potentially help open some holes for Jackson.

The health is really the major concern.  If he can stay on the field he’s a lock to be a 1,000 yard back, no questions asked, especially when you consider that he’s never had a yards/carry of less than 4.1 (he’s at 4.3 for his career).  Throw in the fact that the rest of the offense is so weak, he could really be leaned upon and shine in the passing game, as well as given ample opportunity to find the end zone.

I would project him out at:

Rushing – 1,300 yards, 12 TD
Receiving – 425 yards, 2 TD

Those are solid numbers, right around a Top 5 or 6 option in all formats.  His talent has never been a question, just his ability to keep himself healthy.  That’s an inherent risk with almost any running back, however.  Knowing that he’s capable of posting numbers like he did in 2006 (however unlikely) certainly makes him worth the gamble in the middle of the first round.

This is my preseason top ten.

Click here for my Midseason revised rankings.

Click here for my Second Half rankings.

adrian-peterson
1.  Adrian Peterson – All Day led the league in rushing and scored double-digit TDs again.  Sure, the loss of Matt Birk will hurt, but Peterson shouldn’t miss a beat.  He’s looking to add some muscle mass this offseason without losing any speed.  A bigger AP with the same speed and quickness.  Scary.

2.  Michael Turner – Burner Turner did not disappoint in his first shot as the feature back.  He struggled early against good defenses, but scored in seven of his last eight games.  As Matt Ryan progresses at QB, it will become more difficult to key in on Turner.

3.  Matt Forte - I love Forte’s versatility.  As a rookie he had the third most receiving yards for a Running Back.  Second if you discount Kevin Faulk, who isn’t a feature back.  He had 1715 total yards and 12 combined TDs.  Even if he has a 10% Sophomore slump dip in production, he’d still be good for over 1500 total yards and 10-11 TDs.

4.  Maurice Jones-Drew – With Fred Taylor heading to New England, MJD should be huge in 2009.  He’s always good for 400+ receiving yards and double-digit TDs.  Give him 300-320 carries and you could be looking at nearly 2000 total yards and 15+ TDs.

5.  Ronnie Brown - Last year Ronnie had 214 carries to Ricky Williams’ 160.  I think the split will be even more in Ronnie’s favor next year.  With Ronnie another year removed from his knee injury, he should be closer to the 2007 back that had 991 total yards and five combined TDs in seven games.

lt
6.  LaDainian Tomlinson - LT battled through a variety of ailments last year and still managed to produce 1536 total yards and 12 combined TDs.  Not only do I think he’ll be healthy in ’09, I think he will be motivated.  I don’t see pre-2008 LT, but a better version that last year’s model.

7.  Clinton Portis – CP was severely overworked last year, but he still remains on the right side of 30. I see him producing similar numbers next year, only spaced out a whole lot better.  Jim Zorn will do a better job managing Portis’ carries so he doesn’t wear down at the end of the year.

8.  Brandon Jacobs - You would think Derrick Ward’s departure to Tampa Bay would have a significant impact on Jacobs’ value.  I don’t think so.  Ahmad Bradshaw will likely pick up most of the slack. As long as Jacobs can stay healthy, there isn’t any reason he couldn’t run for 1200+ yards and scored 18+ TDs.

9.  DeAngelo Williams – You must think I’m crazy putting D-Will this low after leading all RBs in scoring last year.  I’m sorry, but I don’t see another 1700 total yards from him.  Furthermore, there is little to no chance he approaches 20 TDs again.  Jonathan Stewart played a major role last year, and I think the split will be a little closer to 50/50 this year.

10.  Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson’s strong finish (637 total yards and 4 combined TDs in his last five games) is sticking in my mind more than the most forgettable 19 games he had in 2007 and the first part of 2008.  If he can stay healthy he has a chance to leapfrog several of the guys above him.  I haven’t completely forgotten though, which is why he’s in the ten spot.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

The Rams need a lot of work.  That’s to be expected when you go 2-14, losing your last ten to close the season.  Marc Bulger isn’t the answer at QB, but he’ll be with the team in ’09 because he’d be too costly on their cap to cut.  I don’t see them going QB with the second pick though because they would have over $100 earmarked to that position.  A more likely scenario is they attempt the monumental task of replacing Orlando Pace with either Michael Oher or Andre Smith.  Steven Jackson looked great down the stretch running for 517 yards and 4 TDs (3 rushing, 1 receiving) in the last five weeks.  He needs to prove he can stay healthy though as he missed four games.  Kenneth Darby and Antonio Pittman are his backups, but that’s a spot that could use and upgrade.  New Coach Steve Spagnuolo saw first hand what a solid stable or RBs can do for a team.  He didn’t quite pass the torch yet, but this could be the year Torry Holt relinquishes his throne on the #1 spot.  There is talk that he could even be cut or traded.  Donnie Avery will likely be the new number, unless they surprise everyone and select Michael Crabtree.  Keenan Burton dealt with a lot of injuries in his rookie season, but should see an expanded role next year.  This is another spot attention.  The Randy McMichael experiment did not work out.  Joe Klopfenstein doesn’t appear to be the answer so Tight End needs to be addressed as well.  So if you’re keeping score at home the Rams need to upgrade on O-Line, WR, TE, and backup RB on Offense. 

Last year’s #1 pick Chris Long should improve in his second year.  Leonard Little is in the last year of his contract and will be playing for a new deal.  They both should be able to produce in Spags’ scheme.  The Rams will likely bring Restricted Free Agent Victor Adeyanju back and lose La’Roi Glover as a cap casualty or to retirement.  Their LBs are fairly set with Pisa Tinoisamoa, Will Witherspoon, and Quinton Culberson.   The Rams have some key free agents in their secondary.  CB Ron Bartell and S Oshiomogho Atogwe will likely be back.  Fahkir Brown and Corey Chavous (already cut) will not return.  With so many needs, Rams fans need to be patient.  Rough waters are ahead.

KFFL Free Agent Tracker:

Pos Player Name FA Status Previous Team Current Team
QB Brock Berlin RFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
RB Samkon Gado UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
RB Travis Minor UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
FB Richard Owens UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
WR Matt Caddell Signed St. Louis Rams St. Louis Rams
WR Joel Filani Re-signed St. Louis Rams San Francisco 49ers
WR Dante’ Hall UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
WR Dane Looker UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
TE Dominique Byrd RFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
OG Mark Setterstrom RFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
OT Adam Goldberg UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
OT Brandon Gorin UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
OT Clint Oldenburg Signed St. Louis Rams Denver Broncos
C Nick Leckey UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
DL Victor Adeyanju RFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
DL La’Roi Glover UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
DL Eric M. Moore UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
DL Willie X. Williams Re-signed St. Louis Rams St. Louis Rams
LB Gary Stills UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
CB Ron Bartell UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
CB Fakhir Brown UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
CB Jason Craft UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
CB Ricky Manning Jr. UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent
SS Corey Chavous UFA (Cut) St. Louis Rams Free Agent
FS Oshiomogho Atogwe UFA St. Louis Rams Free Agent

The Panic Button

11 September 2008


Written by Lisa Danhof

Is it time to panic yet??  This is the question I ask myself every Sunday night – and probably again Tuesday morning when re-evaluating my team.  This week I found myself thinking about some of the biggest stars of the fantasy football world—those players on whom you spent half your auction money or your first round draft pick.  I’ve listed them here on a panic level scale of 1-4.   A level one player merely bears watching.  A level four player is crying out for immediate action, and possibly a fist full of Xanax with a whiskey chaser.

Level 1 – Braylon Edwards
So he only had two catches. You expected 10? Well, the good news is your expectations are about right, and his two catches are the exception to your 10-catch norm. Derek Anderson threw to him a ton, but the preseason games he missed were painfully apparent in an offense that relies heavily on timing. I hope they have those issues worked out because next week proves an even tougher test against a surprisingly strong Steelers defense – one that held the Texans to only three points through the first three quarters. However, if his stats are still unimproved after next week, be on the lookout for a stat-panicky owner that will trade him for less than fair-market value. Braylon’s going to have a solid fantasy season. No worries here.
Honorable Mention – LaDanian Tomlinson

Level 2 – Joseph Addai
I originally had him listed as a three (probably because he’s my main back), but backed him down. Indy’s offensive line is much more suspect than originally thought, specifically the run-blocking. The loss of Jeff Saturday and the addition of three new starters on the offensive line has changed more than the offensive chemistry; the aura of invincibility is now gone. This situation has great potential to get better as the offensive line has more time to jell, but for now Addai will struggle–it’s hard for an elusive style back to hit non-existent holes.
Honorable Mention – Randy Moss

Level 3 – Steven Jackson
The Rams defense is awful. They gave up 21 points. By halftime. Need further proof? They gave up over 500 total yards. Granted, the Eagles are a quality offense, even missing their top two receivers. However, no matter how you look at it – that is a lot of yardage. Unfortunately for Jackson that means they’re going to be playing catch-up in far more games than I’d be comfortable with. He’s a great back and will always have a good first quarter – before his defense gets them down by double digits. Unfortunately after that Bulger will be forced to go to the air.
Honorable Mention – Maurice Jones-Drew

Level 4 – Marques Colston
Take a deep breath. Now exhale. Ok, now we can talk about this situation before you do anything rash. Is there real reason to panic? Absolutely. But at least you’re not at the Tom Brady level of panic. So let’s go pros and cons.

Pros: He’s not out all year. It’s a thumb injury, which is something that’s not prone to recurrence like say a hamstring injury is. You should have more depth at wide receiver than you have at quarterback. David Patten and Devery Henderson, the Saints second and third receivers, are most likely available on your waiver wire and didn’t look too terrible on Sunday.

Cons: You will be getting zero points from your number one receiver for over half your season. I think that’s really all the reason I need to put him at panic level 4. If you have the bench space to hang on to him, go for it. Despite the injury, he is still far too valuable to straight out drop at this point.
Honorable Mention – Tom Brady

St. Louis Rams Preview

4 September 2008

Few teams had to deal with the kind of injuries the Rams did last year. Although they are getting older (Torry Holt and Orlando Pace especially), they still have the skill players to get it done. They welcomed in Al Saunders to inject life into their Offense. They have a talented QB in Marc Bulger. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to return to form. They brought in Trent Green to hold the clipboard. He’s good for a game or two in a pinch if need be. Steven Jackson held out for and eventually got the big bucks. He’s deserving, but I don’t get what took so long. He would have been better served to get into camp and get the rust off. He should be fresh from missing the preseason, but could come out of the gates a little slow. The Rams will need to be cautious with him to avoid an hamstring or groin injury, which tend to happen when you try to do too much too fast on a football field. Torry Holt is still the leader of the WR corps, but they’ll have to make due without Isaac Bruce, who moved onto San Fran. Drew Bennett is penciled in as the other starter, but he’ll have to prove he can stay healthy. Dane Looker and Dante Hall should factor in the receiving game as well. At Tight End they are hoping to get more production out of Randy McMichael, who was underwhelming in his first season with the Rams.

On Defense the Rams drafted Chris Long to help their Defensive Front. He joins Leonard Little, La’Roi Glover (6 Sacks), and second-year first rounder Adam Carriker. This should be a pretty strong unit if they can stay healthy. Will Witherspoon (110 Tackles, 7 Sacks) is an outstanding Middle Linebacker. Cornerback Fahkir Brown picked off 5 passes last year. Safeties Oshiomogho Atogwe (75 Tackles, 8 INTs) and Corey Chavous (75 Tackles, 3.5 Sacks) give them a pair of solid Safeties.

If they can stay healthy they will challenge for the NFC West. This division is pretty wide open. I still think the Seahawks will find a way to win it. The Rams will win around 8 games.

Fantasy-wise Steven Jackson is worthy of a top four selection. He is a dynamic runner that is capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. Al Saunders has a pretty good history with RBs. Torry Holt is still worthy of being a #1 WR, but he’s no longer a Top 5 WR. Marc Bulger is taking a shot on as a fantasy starter, but you should have a capable backup. Randy McMichael is worth a look at Tight End. He’ll probably start off as a reserve, but could prove worthy of a starter.


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