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Image courtesy of ESPN Chicago
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Written by Aaron Somers from Blogging From the Bleachers
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Just over seven months ago the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays completed one of the bigger trades of this past offseason. The deal sent starting pitcher Matt Garza along with outfielder Fernando Perez and minor league pitcher Zach Rosscup to the Cubs in exchange for five players – outfielders Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer, catcher Robinson Chirinos, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, and pitcher Chris Archer.
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When the deal was completed on January 8th it was widely viewed as one that could prove to be a win for both sides. Tampa Bay was giving up the most experienced starter on their staff but were receiving a quality collection of players in return. Meanwhile, Chicago received a top shelf starting pitcher for what they felt included none of their top prospects. Most critics and media members alike seemed to agree.
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There was a minority who felt that Cubs had drastically overpaid, however. The thought was the package as a whole was was too much, but specifically the inclusion of both Lee and Archer was too risky for a player of Garza’s caliber. Ryan Maloney of Prose and Ivy, one of the top Cubs blogs out there, summed up the situation pretty well the day after the trade:

The Cubs make one move and I already think next year is going to be the year. It’s pathetic really. When will I ever learn? Probably never. I guess that’s part of the fun though in being a baseball fan, right? Especially in being a Cubs fan. No one utters This is the Year or Wait Until Next Year like a Cubs fan. As if (Carlos) Pena wasn’t enough (and really, he wasn’t … merely replacing (Derrek)Lee’s bat in the lineup wasn’t exactly what I thought was the move necessary to put us over the hump), then the Cubs go and bet the farm on Garza.
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About that. People saying the Cubs bet the farm? I think it’s overblown. We gave up a couple of top prospects and a talented, hard nosed outfielder we have no plans on ever really using again. Otherwise, we kept top pitching in addition to (Josh) Vitters and a number of other young top prospects in the organization, safe and sound. Enough about the Cubs betting the farm on Garza … although if we did, I might be ok with that. I’m just glad we didn’t have to.

Seven calendar months and half a season later, let’s take a look at how the trade has worked out for both sides and whether the early thoughts on the deal still hold true.

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Matt Joyce enters the week tied for second in the American League with a .351 batting average. He has hit .474 (9-19) in six May games after closing out April hitting .467 (7-15) in his final four games. That ten-game stretch raised his average from .286 to his current mark, which brings me to my title question. Is Matt Joyce for real?
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Joyce had stints in the Majors in each of the past three seasons, never playing more than 92 games and never posting more than 242 at bats. In those stints he hit .252, .188, and .241. It’s not unusual for a hitter to take a stride in the season he turns 27, but his past production (or lack thereof) should not be ignored. Especially when you consider that this in not a hitter that tore up the minor leagues.
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Joyce hit a modest .293 for Triple-A Durham last year. He hit .273 in 2009 for the Bulls and .270 in 2008 for Triple-A Toledo. In all, Joyce’s minor league average is .275. He combined for 32 home runs in 709 Triple-A at bats. With just two home runs in 97 at bats this year, he isn’t a likely candidate to suddenly develop into a power hitter.
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Joyce swiped 14 bags in 2009 for Durham, but simply isn’t a stolen base threat. He has three on the year, and Tampa is aggressive with their baserunners, but I don’t see him picking up more than 8-10 SBs on the year.
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He has 15 runs and 12 RBI, which puts him on pace for 71 runs and 57 RBI. Those numbers simply won’t cut it for fantasy teams.
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All you really have is the average. We’ve already questioned the validity of his .351 mark, but here is more fuel for that fire. Joyce has a BABIP of .432 on the year. His 2010 mark was .273, though he’s been around .300 through his professional baseball career. When his BABIP come back to Earth, so does his batting average.
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I have no qualms riding Joyce while he is hot, I do urge you to be cognizant of his shortcomings. If you get a solid offer for him, don’t hesitate to take it. If he starts to slide, don’t be afraid to jump off the train.
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***Update ***
5/19/10
I am taking credit for motivating Matt Joyce to hit for power. Kidding aside. The dude has answered the question with an empathic yes. He is for real slugging five home runs with eleven runs and nine RBI in his past nine games. Regression in his average will come, but he has a shot to hit .300+ with 20 HRs and 80+ RBI.
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Also check out:

• Should You Buy Low on Yovani Gallardo?
• Is It Time to Sell High on Andre Ethier?
• Can You Trust Josh Tomlin’s Fast Start?
• Can Adam Dunn Turn it Around?
• Is It Time to Hit the Panic Button on Albert Pujols?

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Tampa Bay outfielder is off to an unbelievable start. He’s hitting .366 with 11 runs, a home run, eight RBI, and nine stolen bases. The question is whether you should continue to ride his hot bat (and legs) or try to sell high on him?
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My money is on holding. He has a stranglehold on the Rays’ leadoff spot. He’s hitting .369 out of that slot, including .360 leading off. While he hasn’t walked a lot (four times), he’s only struck out six times in 71 at bats. With his speed and ability to put the ball in play he should continue to hit for a good average. I don’t think he’s a .360+ hitter, but he had a solid .285 average in the minor leagues.
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He also plays for one of the most aggressive teams in baseball. The stolen base total is legit, and if he can continue to get on base at a solid clip, he has a good chance of stealing 30+ bases.
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I’d like to see a few more runs scored given his high average, but remember that Evan Longoria is on the shelf. When he returns that should bolster the Rays’ lineup that has struggled at times.
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If you get an amazing offer for Fuld, I wouldn’t hesitate to move him. I’m just not sure he’s the type of player that can net even trade value. Other owners are probably skeptical that his success will come crashing down at any moment. With only 131 big league at bats and a .252 average heading into the season, the concerns are legitimate. There always seems to be players that everybody would like to have on their team, but aren’t willing to take the risk to trade for. I think Sam Fuld is one of those players.

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Tampa Bay star third baseman Evan Longoria is expected to miss nearly a month because of a sore oblique muscle. He left Saturday night’s game because of the injury, that began bothering him during batting practice. Longoria has yet to pick up his first hit of 2011. If you’re looking for a short-term fix at third base, here are some possible options:
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• Willie Bloomquist, ARI: 4 for 10, run, three SBs
• Edwin Encarnacion, TOR:  2 for 8, run, two RBI
• Jack Hannahan, CLE:  4 for 9, three runs, HR, three RBI
• Chase Headley, SD:  3 for 10, three runs, HR, four RBI
• Brandon Inge, DET:  4 for 7, RBI
• Maicer Izturis, LAA:  3 for 10, RBI, SB
• Chipper Jones, ATL:  4 for 9, run, RBI
• Jose Lopez, COL:  3 for 8, two runs, HR, two RBI
• Brent Morel, NYM:  3 for 9, three runs, two RBI, SB
• Placido Polanco:  3 for 8, three runs

Click here to enter the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Team Name Contest
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Manny Ramirez brought his hair and wacky behavior to Tampa Bay. Did he bring his big bat along with him? That is the million dollar question.
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Things did not end well for Manny in Los Angeles. That has become his new M.O. He played well enough when he played, hitting .311 with 32 runs, eight HRs, and 40 RBI in 66 games, but he was either hurt or a distraction most of the time. The Dodgers dealt him to the White Sox, but he did little to help their playoff push.
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Manny hit just .261 with the White Sox. That’s not the worst of it though. He scored just six runs, hit just one home run, and had just two RBI in 24 games (69 ABs). That most definitely was not Manny being Manny. He failed to hit double-digit HRs for the first time since 1993. He has combined for just 28 HRs and 105 RBI the past two years.
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Does that mean Manny is done? I wouldn’t go quite that far. I know he’ll turn 39 in May, but I believe there is still life in his bat. He won’t have to take his circus act to the field with Tampa Bay. He’ll be a full-time hitter. That should decrease the chance of nagging injuries. While I don’t expect him return to the 30 HR plateau, he could give you 20. He’s had success at Tropicana Field with a career average of .299 with 25 HR and 72 RBI in 77 games. Manny is a hitter, and while his bat speed may have dropped, if he can stay healthy, he can still contribute.
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Plus, he’s not a big risk. His ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, is  156. He’s worth a gamble in the 13th round. What’s your take? Is ManRam done or does he have another productive year left in him?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings