LestersLegends.com

I’m interested to see whether or not T.O.’s departure will hinder Jason Witten’s production.  Love him or loathe him, T.O. did make life easier for Witten when he wasn’t making his buddy Tony Romo nuts.  Despite turning in a solid season with 81 catches for 952 yards 4 TDs, Witten’s numbers were way off his outstanding 96-1145-7 2007 performance.  Of course Tony Romo missed Weeks 7-9 where Witten had just 7 catches for 52 yards.  The Cowboys at least brought in Jon Kitna to be Romo’s backup, which is a major upgrade over Brad Johnson.  With a healthy and happy Romo, who not only got rid of the T.O. headache, but the Jessica one as well, and a good insurance policy, I see Jason Witten as the top Tight End again in 2009.  He’ll likely go in the 4th round of fantasy drafts, and should be the first one off the board.  As Romo’s most reliable weapon I expect Witten to catch 100 passes for 1150 yards and 8 TDs. 

Considering the season Philip Rivers had, it’s amazing that Antonio Gates had “just” 60 catches for 704 yards and 8 TDs.  While they are impressive numbers for a TE, they are far below the 79-993-10 he averaged the previous four years.  He battled through foot and ankle injuries that took away his leaping ability, which is one of Gates’ best assets.  Gates committed to working harder on his conditioning in the offseason and is in great shape.  With his explosiveness back, Gates can make a run at reclaiming his title of best fantasy TE.  Gates will be anywhere from the 2nd to 4th TE selected in fantasy drafts, most likely in the late fourth/early fifth round.  He should be good for 80 catches for 1000 yards and 10 TDs.

Tony Gonzalez made the move from Kansas City to Atlanta.  While he goes to an offense with more weapons (Roddy White, Michael Turner, Michael Jenkins, Jerious Norwood), he also goes to a team with a much better QB.  Matt Ryan had a solid Rookie season, and with the addition of Gonzo, he should take the next step towards fantasy greatness.  Atlanta will run more than KC did so I look for his numbers to drop a little.  I know he played for KC when they ran a lot an still produced, but he was younger and that was a better offense.  I still expect Gonzo to be a top three TE so it’s not like I don’t value him.  He’s going in the 5th Round of fantasy drafts.  I’m putting him on a 70 catch, 900 yard, 7 TD season.

Dallas Clark is the low end of the elite TE, but there is a drop off after he goes off the board (likely in the late 5th/early 6th round).  Clark put together another solid season with 77 catches for 848 yards and 6 TDs, showing the 58-616-11 he put up in 2007 wasn’t a fluke.  With Marvin Harrison gone, Clark should consider to be one of Peyton Manning’s primary targets.  I actually expect him to take a little step back this year simply because he was so productive last year.  I’m looking for him to have 65 catches for 850 yards, and 7 TDs.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Roddy White is fresh off a fat, new contract.  I just hope his desire to prove he’s worth that big contract is equal to the drive he showed while auditioning for that contract.  White followed up his breakout third season of 83 receptions for 1202 yards and 6 TDs with an impressive 88 reception, 1382 yard, 7 TD performance.  This while playing with a Rookie QB in Matt Ryan, and a heavy rushing attack led by Michael Turner. 

It would be natural to expect another increase in production had the Falcons not acquired Hall of Fame Tight End Tony Gonzalez.  While Gonzo’s presence will help take some pressure off of Roddy, Gonzo’s going to get his share of receptions, which will cut into Roddy’s numbers.  Having Gonzo in the mix is great the Falcons, it diminishes everyone outside of Matt Ryan’s fantasy value.  Michael Turner’s TD total is bound to drop as Gonzo is great in the red zone.  Roddy and Michael Jenkins’ touches are going to decrease.  Even Gonzo will be targeted less with more weapons to share with.

So where does that leave Roddy in fantasy terms?  I would still take him as a #1 WR, but not until the third round when I have two RBs (or one RB and Brees, Peyton, or Brady).  I’m expecting 75 receptions for 1200 yards and 7 TDs.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

To say that Matt Ryan exceeded expectations last year is a vast understatement.  He started off slow averaging 167.3 yards per game in the first four games with 2 TDs (0.5/gm).  He tore it up in October and November averaging 244.5 ypg with 11 TDs (1.375/gm).  He fizzled a bit down the stretch averaging 203.8 ypg with 3 TDs (0.75/gm).  You would expect some growth from him in his second year, especially with the addition of Tight End Tony Gonzalez, who will team with Roddy White to give the Falcons an excellent 1-2 punch.  Michael Jenkins made strides last year and should benefit from Gonzo’s arrival as well.  Throw in an excellent running game with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood and the Offense should be firing on all cylinders.

His fantasy schedule isn’t too frightening.  He plays at home against New Orleans, at NY Jets, and at home against the Bills.  His regular season is pretty tough being in a good division, facing the AFC East and the NFC East.  With his  weapons he still should be able to move the chains and put points on the board.  I’m expecting him to throw for around 3600 yards and 22 TDs.  He won’t dominate the fantasy scene, but he should be a pretty good value in the 8th round or so.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Whenever you leave a situation where you have been the centerpiece of the Offense for so many years, there has to be some concerns that you won’t be able to match your production in your new digs. 

When Tony Gonzalez, the best offensive Tight End in NFL history, was traded from Kansas City to Atlanta, that very scenario presented itself.  Sure, he was going to an Offense with a much better QB in Matt Ryan than he has played with since pre-concussion Trent Green.  You knew that he would have to share with the likes of Roddy White and Michael Jenkins in the passing attack, as well as Michael Turner and the run game.  He was produced while RBs have had historic seasons though (Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson).  This situation is a bit different though.

If you read into what Mike Mularkey told J. Michael Moore of AtlantaFalcons.com there could be some cause for concern over Gonzo’s fantasy value next season.  Mularkey said “One thing he’s going to do is that he’s a productive blocker and that’s important in our offense.  As successful as he’s been as a receiver, he’s a good blocker too and he really doesn’t get the credit that he should.”  I’m not saying that I think Gonzo is going to be a blocking Tight End all of the sudden, but he could see that responsibility a little more often with the Falcons.  He’s still a top tier Tight End, but maybe it would be wise to bump him down a notch or two.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Jay Glazer got his mojo back.  After being trumped by ESPN most of the preseason, the Fox Sports NFL Writer broke one of the biggest stories of the offseason.  The Chiefs have parted ways with future Hall of Fame Tight End Tony Gonzalez.  They sent him to Atlanta for a Second Round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Gonzo wasn’t really a fit in Todd Haley’s Offense.  He joins a star-studded cast in Atlanta that features Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White.  While he will experience more team success in Atlanta, his fantasy value took a hit.  He will no longer be the top option on Offense.  Actually, aside from Matt Ryan, all of the Falcon skill position players take a little hit. Gonzo is great in the red zone so Turner could yield some TDs to him.  Roddy and Michael Jenkins have the NFL’s most productive Tight End in the mix to vie for Matt Ryan’s attention.  The move virtually ensures that Atlanta will focus on Defense with the 24th overall pick.

In Kansas City they just lost the face of their franchise.  Dwayne Bowe should play an even bigger role in 2009, which should allow him to build upon the 86 reception, 1022 yard, 7 TD season he turned in for the Chiefs last year.  Bobby Engram and Mark Bradley should pick up the slack of Gonzo’s departure.