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knowshon-moreno
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Knowshon Moreno finally came to terms with the Denver Broncos.  Thankfully his holdout didn’t extend too far into Training Camp for Moreno to have a major setback.  He obviously won’t start the first couple of preseason games, but he should be able to get plenty of opportunities to compete for the starting Tailback gig.

Moreno was selected with the 12th pick in the NFL Draft, which is significant considering the shape their Defense was in last year.  He has the strength to run between the tackles, the speed to get outside, and the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.  He’ll have to show he can pick up the blitz and he could be a three-down back eventually.  He’ll be pushed by fellow newcomer Correll Buckhalter, but Buck has been an career backup with a history of knee injuries, so I wouldn’t count on him to have too heavy of a workload.

Playing in the AFC West, Denver has some nice matchups.  They face Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland to start the season, so it’s important he win the starting job by then.  He has another nice three game stretch starting in Week 13 when the Broncos face the Chiefs, and going into the fantasy playoffs when they face Indianapolis and Oakland again.  It’s not all a walk in the park though as Denver takes on New England (Week 4), Baltimore (Week 8), Pittsburgh (Week 9), Washington (Week 10), New York Giants (Week 12), and Philadelphia (Week 16).

If you’ve drafted already, perhaps you were able to sneak him a little later, but now that he’s signed he’ll likely go in the third or fourth round of fantasy drafts.  I’m expecting 1200 total yards and 8 TDs with 45 receptions.

Thomas Jones running
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Thomas Jones is coming off an unbelievable year in which he ran for 1312 yards with 13 TDs, and added 36 receptions for 207 yards and 2 TDs.  Though he’s in great shape, he will turn 31 this year, which has typically been the beginning of the end for RBs.  He has carried a pretty heavy workload the past four seasons, which didn’t go unnoticed by the Jets as they drafted Shonn Greene from Iowa.  Also in the mix will be Leon Washington, who was electric (5.9 yards per carry) when he had the football last year.  Washington had 9 TDs (6 rushing, 2 receiving, 1 Kick Return).  I suspect Jones will have one more year to be the lead dog, but will be pushed out next year.  If the Jets struggle they could start planning for the future with more Greene for the Green & White.

The Jets have a pretty tough schedule playing in the AFC East along with tilts with Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Carolina.  Their fantasy playoff schedule consists of games against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Indianapolis, which shouldn’t prove too difficult.  It’s just a matter if he’s getting the bulk of the carries still when those games roll around.  My expectations have lowered of Jones, but he always seems to prove people wrong.  I’ll take my chances and figure him for 900 total yards and 6 TDs.

Beanie Wells
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Hopefully Beanie Wells’ ankle injury isn’t a sign of things to come for this talented back.  Not that I’m comparing him to Adrian Peterson, but they were both talented backs with injury history in college.  While Beanie will never reach the ceiling that All Day is setting, he could be a very solid back, especially with the pressure that their passing game puts on defenses.  The Cardinals were miserable in that department last year with Edgerrin James losing a step and Tim Hightower lacking explosiveness.  The addition of Beanie Wells should change that, should he stay healthy.  Before you start moving him too far up your draft board, remember that Tim Hightower was fairly effective in short yardage situations, and that the Cardinals will likely utilize him in that role to minimize the beating that Beanie takes.

The Cardinals have a fairly difficult regular season schedule with St. Louis (Week 11) looking like the only cream puff.  Where the Cardinals players are most valuable is the fantasy playoffs as they square off with San Franciso, Detroit, and St. Louis.  If Beanie can stay healthy I’m putting him on a 1150 total yard, 7 TD season.

Pierre Thomas running

Pierre Thomas has been a trendy pick in fantasy football leagues this year.  The hype train has finally let Reggie Bush off.  Pierre Thomas is the more complete Running Back and will take the lion’s share of the carries as well as the goal line duties.  He has bulked up to handle the beating that 100+ additional carries will bring.  He gave a glimpse of what he can do with regular touches last year in Weeks 11-16 when he averaged 112.83 yards (79.16 rushing) on 15.5 carries and 3.2 receptions with 9 TDs.  Reggie will still get his touches, but Pierre is clearly the feature back.

Reggie Bush Leaping
That doesn’t mean that Reggie Bush should be an afterthought.  If he can stay healthy, he is still one of the most explosive players in the league.  He will likely have more receiving yards than rushing yards.  He should have 70+ receptions to lead all Running Backs.  He will add a Punt Return for TD if he is given the opportunity, though at this point I would take that duty away for his health’s sake. 

In an offense like the Saints have matchups are almost irrelevant, but I’ll point out his favorable matchups against Detroit (Week 1) and St. Louis (Week 10) and his challenging ones against Philly (Week 2), the Giants (Week 6), Carolina (Week 9), New England (Week 12), and Washington (Week 13).  Their fantasy playoff schedule is Atlanta, Dallas, and Tampa Bay, which is fairly difficult.

Pierre Thomas will likely go in the second or third round in your fantasy draft.  I expect him to be very productive with 1400+ total yards and 10+ TDs.  Meanwhile, Reggie Bush should have around 1100 total yards (400 rushing, 700 receiving) with 8 total TDs.  Bush will be drafted in the third or fourth round, with a significant bump in PPR leagues.

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Marshawn Lynch tackled
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Well, Marshawn Lynch’s three-games suspension was upheld so you’re looking at 12 games of fantasy production from Beast Mode.  The good news is he’ll be there at the end of the season when it counts the most.  The suspension should drop him in drafts to at least the third round so he could end up being a great value.  There are some major concerns with Lynch though, other than the suspension.  The offseason addition of Dominic Rhodes means that the Bills will have three capable RBs, along with Fred Jackson.  While Lynch should remain the lead back, clearly the other two will cut into his production.  As long as he gets the ball at the stripe, he should be fine.  That’s where the other problem lies.  The Bills also added Terrell Owens, who puts up TDs in a hurry.  If Lynch is sharing his yardage with Jackson and Rhodes and TDs with T.O., that diminishes his fantasy value dramatically.

Lynch misses one of the Bills’ best matchups in Week 3 when they face New Orleans.  Playing in the AFC East he has a pretty tough schedule.  They also draw Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.  They open the fantasy playoffs with a favorable matchup against Kansas City, followed by New England and Atlanta.

The odds seem to be stacked against Lynch this year.  He’s missing three games, will share yards and TDs, and if he messes up one more time, he’ll be done for the year.  Plus, if Buffalo is successful without him, they may ease him back to the rotation slowly.  He’s a tough one to put numbers to, but I’m guessing he has 1000 total yards and 6 TDs.


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