LestersLegends.com

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Vernon Wells was finally healthy last year and smacked 30+ home runs for the first time since 2006. He finished with a solid .273-79-31-88-6 line. I certainly wouldn’t say at 32 that it would be hard to match those power numbers, but he does have some things working against him.
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For starters, he went from a team that lived and died by the long ball. Jose Bautista hit .260 with 54 HRs. Aaron Hill hit .205 with 26 HRs. Adam Lind hit .237 with 23 HRs. Edwin Encarnacion hit .244 with 20 HRs. Lyle Overbay hit .243 with 20 HRs. The Angels don’t rely on the long ball like Toronto does so Wells won’t be swinging for the fences as often.
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The Angels scored 74 fewer runs and smacked 102 fewer home runs. Part of it is simply the ball park factor. The Rogers Centre ranked fourth with a 1.358 HR ball park factor while Angel Stadium of Anaheim ranked 23rd with a .825 factor.
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Does that mean Vernon Wells will see a dip in his home run total? My guess is yes, but not significantly, and while he declines in HRs, he’ll likely gain in stolen bases.
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Wells had just six stolen bases in 2010, but had 17 in 2009 and has been in double-digits in three of the past five seasons. The Angels are much more inclined to turn their baserunners loose having stolen 46 more bases last year.
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Wells started off the year on a tear hitting 19 home runs in the first three months. He cooled off in the summer, combining for four HRs in July and August. Concerns might have crept in, but he responded with eight in September.
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The injuries are a concern but, aside from 2008, he’s been able to play through them for the most part. He’s not too big of a risk in fantasy drafts as he’s going as the 28th outfielder and 101st overall according to Mock Draft Central.
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I do understand that given his injury history and the move to Anaheim are causes for concern for Vernon Wells, I think he’s a solid outfielder option that is capable of a .280-85-25-90-15 line.
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

Here’s a look at Outfielders who should bounce back from subpar 2008 seasons.

Carl Crawford – Despite Tampa Bay’s success last year, Crawford didn’t perform at his typical level.  Crawford was limited to 109 games, which can explain the 69 Runs, 121 Hits, 12 Doubles, 8 HRs, 57 RBI, and 25 SBs.  His .273 average was off his .293 career mark, but that can be expected from someone dealing with injuries.  I fully expect him to return to form and hit in the low .300s with 90+ Runs, 180+ Hits, 28+ Doubles, 15+ HRs, 75+ RBI, and 40+ SBs.  One interesting note is despite his struggles, he did still hit 10 Triples last year.  I expect that number to jump to 15+ in ’09.

Vernon Wells – Wells had a solid season batting .300 with 20 HRs and 78 RBI.  He was actually better in 108 games in 2008 than he was in 149 games in 2007.  He worked with a trainer to get in better shape.  Unfortunately he hurt his hamstring.  As long as it doesn’t bother him all year, he should be solid.  I’m putting him on a .280, 85 R, 160 H, 32 2Bs, 25HRs, 90 RBI, and 12 SBs season.

Hideki Matsui - Matsui will mostly fill the DH role for the Yankees because of his knees.  He was limited to 93 games last year and had just 43 Runs, 9 HRs, and 45 RBI.  He’s alternating between injury-riddled years and solid years, and fortunately it’s an odd year if the trend continues.  I see him getting around 450-500 at bats and hitting .295 with 75 R, 140 H, 20 HRs, and 80 RBI.

Gary Sheffield – While he doesn’t play much OF anymore, he’s still eligible in most formats.  Sheff, like most Tigers, had a down year.  He hit .225 with 52 Runs, 94 Hits, 16 Doubles, 19 HRs, and 57 RBI.  Those aren’t Gary Sheffield numbers.  He could struggle out of the gate as he pursues HR #500.  Once that’s out of the way look for him to settle in around .260, 70-75 Runs, 130 Hits, 25 Doubles, 22 HRs, and 70 RBI.

Jeff Francoeur - Francoeur hit .239 with 70 Runs, 143 Hits, 11 HRs, and 71 RBI.  In his previous two years he averaged .276 with 83.5 Runs, 178.5 Hits, 24 HRs, and 104 RBI.  After his struggles last year, I’m going to be conservative in my expectations of him in ’09.  I’m guessing he’ll hit .260 with 75 Runs, 160 Hits, 20 HRs, and 85 RBI. 

Eric Byrnes - I don’t expect a major bounceback for him as he’s likely going to be fighting for at bats as the fourth Outfielder, but he’s going to improve on his .209 average and 28 Runs, 43 Hits, 23 RBI, and 4 SBs.  If nothing else, he should be a decent source of SBs.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

Happy Birthday Dukes!

 
Wednesday, August 13th
Raul Ibanez went 4 for 5 with 3 Runs, 2 Doubles, 2 RBI, and a Walk.  Mark Teixeira went 3 for 6 with 2 Runs, 2 HRs, and 3 RBI.  Jim Edmonds (Game 1) had 3 Runs and 3 RBI.  Geovany Soto (Game 1) went 3 for 5 with a Run, a Double, a HR, and 4 RBI.  Troy Glaus went 4 for 4.  Jeff Kent also had 4 Hits.  Vernon Wells hit a Grand Slam.  Daniel Murphy (3 RBI), Omar Infante, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis (3 Runs), Corey Hart (3 RBI), Nick Markakis, Melvin Mora, David Eckstein, Skip Schumaker, Brad Hawpe, Maicer Izturis, Yuniesky Betancourt, Russell Martin, and Eric Hinske each had 3 Hits.  Delmon Young, Wladimir Balentien and Milton Bradley each had 3 RBI.

Mark Buehrle threw 7 scoreless Innings allowing 5 Hits with 5 Ks to improve to 10-10 with a 3.77 ERA.  C.C. Sabathia gave up 1 Run in 7 Innings with 8 Ks to improve to 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA with the Brewers (13-8, 3.05 overall).  Kevin Slowey gave up 1 Run on 3 Hits in 6 Innings to improve to 9-8 with a 3.94 ERA.  Paul Maholm gave up 2 Runs in 8 Innings to improve to 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA.  David Purcey threw 6 scoreless Innings to improve to 2-3.  Jeremy Guthrie gave up 1 Run on 4 Hits in 7 Innings to improve to 10-8 with a 3.18 ERA.  Andy Sonnastine gave up 2 Runs in 6 Innings with 6 Ks to improve to 12-6.  Braden Looper gave up 1 Earned Run on 5 Hits in 7 Innings to improve to 11-9.  Randy Wolf gave up 2 Runs in 7 Innings to improve to 8-10.  John Maine gave up 1 Hit in 5 scoreless Innings with 6 Ks to improve to 10-7 with a 3.97 ERA.  Brian Stokes threw 4 Innings of scoreless relief.  Rich Harden gave up 2 Hits in 5 scoreless Innings with 5 Ks to improve to 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA with the Cubs (7-2, 2.09 overall).  Ricky Nolasco gave up 2 Runs in 6 Innings with 5 Ks, but got a no-decision.

Sunday, June 8th
Hanley Ramirez went 3 for 5 with a pair of HRs and 4 RBI.  Ray Durham had 4 Hits.  Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds each hit a pair of HRs and drove in 3 Runs.  Mark Ellis hit a game-winning Grand Slam.  Nick Swisher had 4 RBI.  Bobby Abreu, Lance Berkman, Tony Clark, and Dan Uggla each had 3 RBI.  Brian Roberts, Vernon Wells (first game off the DL) Shane Victorino (3 Runs), Ryan Howard (4RBI), Mark Teixeira, Fred Lewis, Adam LaRoche, Alexei Ramirez (3 RBI), Eric Chavez, Carlos Delgado, Jody Gerut, Mark DeRosa, and Brian Giles each had 3 Hits.

Gavin Floyd allowed 2 Runs in 7 Innings with 9 Ks to improve to 7-3 with a 3.10 ERA.  Justin Masterson gave up 1 Run on 3 Hits in 6 Innings to improve to 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA.  Rich Harden gave up 3 Runs in 6 Innings with 9 Ks.  Ervin Santana gave up 2 Runs in 6-1/3 Innings with 9 Ks.  Jason Marquis gave up 1 unearned Run on 3 Hits in 6-1/3 Inning to improve to 4-3.