LestersLegends.com

.
The fantasy playoffs continued as the Chargers destroyed the 49ers last night.
.
Having players go in the Thursday night games gives you a little bit of an advantage. If your players do well, you can perhaps be a little more cautious with your team. If your players failed to put up good numbers, perhaps you will want to take a bigger risk, hoping to make up some ground. You also get a feel for your matchup depending on how your opponents players did. Let’s take a look at how fantasy owners will be feeling about their players.
.
Quarterbacks:  Philip Rivers (273 yards, three touchdowns) didn’t have Antonio Gates or Malcom Floyd in his arsenal, but it did not matter. He just reunited with an old flame in Vincent Jackson to put on a clinic. If you used Alex Smith (165 yards, INT), you’re in some serious trouble.
.
Running Backs: There were four possible running back choices in this one. Mike Tolbert (46 yards, TD) was the top ranked of the quartet and he delivered the best score. Brian Westbrook (30 total yards, TD) did well enough for those of you who took a chance on him. Ryan Mathews (56 yards) was OK, while Anthony Dixon (35 total yards) was a letdown.
.
Wide Receivers:  Vincent Jackson (112 yards, 3 TDs) was a beast. I bumped him into the top 15 when news broke of Floyd and Gates inactive status. I just wish I bumped him higher. Josh Morgan (106 yards) once again was the top wide receiver threat. He has becoming one of those unheralded players that make fantasy football playoffs legends. Michael Crabtree (17 yards) was a dud. Legedu Naanee was a major letdown.
.
Tight Ends: Vernon Davis (4 yards) was nearly invisible. Tough break for his fantasy owners. You’ll have to make up those points. Randy McMichael (55 yards) did an admirable job filling in for Gates.
.
Kickers:  Nate Kaeding kicked two field goals (25, 39) and had four PATs. Solid start. Jeff Reed was held to one lonely PAT.
.
Defenses:  San Diego was a beast holding the Niners to seven points. They racked up six sacks and forced on turnover (INT). The Niners got blitzed allowing 34 points. They had just one sack and did not force a turnover.
.

Also check out:

• Week 15 Get ‘em or Don’t Sweat ‘em Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 15 Fantasy QB Rankings
• Week 15 Fantasy RB Rankings
• Week 15 Fantasy WR Rankings
• Week 15 Fantasy TE Rankings
• Week 15 Fantasy K Rankings
• Week 15 Fantasy DEF Rankings
• Week 15 Fantasy IDP Rankings
• Week 15 Start/Sit Advice

Image courtesy of Icon SMI
.
I was asked to participate in the FantasyPros.com Featured Pros segment this week. Click here to see the full article and the responses from from The Scores Report, Chet Gresham from Razzball.
.
Question 1
Give us 2 or 3 players that might be available off of waivers that you would target to stash away now for the playoffs (weeks 14-16), and tell us why.
.
My Response:
Beanie Wells’ knee concerns me. Even if he’s able to go this week, I’m not convinced he comes away Monday without swelling. If they lose as expected to Kansas City this week, they will be 3-7. With nothing to play for, Arizona’s front office could shut down Beanie Wells, meaning Tim Hightower could get some starts down the stretch. They have a favorable schedule ahead with St. Louis, Denver, Carolina, and Dallas looming in Weeks 13-16.
.
Arrelious Benn has scored in consecutive weeks and is finally showing up on the fantasy radar. He too has a nice stretch of games in Weeks 13-16 as he faces Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, and Seattle. If you aren’t able to get his teammate Mike Williams, Benn may be a sneaky force down the stretch.

.
ESPN is reporting that if Vincent Jackson is traded by the San Diego Chargers,  he will be able to play in Week 5. The settlement agreed to by the NFL and the NFLPA improves the chances that the 6’5″ WR will be dealt. Prior to the agreement he would have to miss the first six games. The most likely suitors are the Minnesota Vikings and the St. Louis Rams. His fantasy stock would clearly be better if he were receiving passes from Hall of Famer Brett Favre rather than rookie Sam Bradford. Stay tuned for further details.
.
Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

With each passing day the likelihood that Vincent Jackson will play a down for the Chargers this season worsens. Even with their new rookie RB Ryan Mathews figuring to provide more balance on offense, this is still Philip Rivers team, meaning they will be throwing the football early and often.

Antonio Gates will likely lead the Chargers in targets, but Floyd will be counted on to use his big frame (6’5″, 225 lbs) similar to the way Vincent Jackson did.

Floyd showed big play potential last year catching 45 passes for 776 yards (17.2 yards per catch). His career ypc is 16.5. He’ll have to improve on his one TD though. However, with Vincent Jackson (6’5″, 230) out of the mix, Floyd will be more likely to get them. Legedu Naanee (6/2″, 220) just doesn’t have the size Floyd does.

Assuming V-Jax doesn’t play for the Chargers Floyd could be a steal in fantasy drafts. His current Mock Draft Central ADP is 69th (25th WR). It’s a little bit of a risk going with a somewhat unknown commodity, but sometimes you need to take risks to win. In all likelihood you can get the number one WR on a pass-first team as a WR3. What’s not to like about that scenario?

What are your thoughts on Malcom Floyd? Would you want him as your WR3?

Ladies and gentlemen, it is time to adjust your wide receiver rankings. The equally talented and troubled WR Vincent Jackson was handed a three-game suspension  by Roger Goodell for violating the league’s personal conduct policy following his second DUI arrest.

He is also threatening to sit out the season in a contract dispute.  The longer he stays away from the Chargers, the harder it’s going to be to get on track. There has been some speculation that some NFL teams (Seattle, Washington, and Chicago) are interested in trading for V-Jax, but the suspension doesn’t help matters. When you consider one more slip up could lead to a much lengthier suspension, it’s hard to imagine teams would be willing to give the Chargers what they are asking for.

Thankfully we don’t draft in early July, but if you have to turn your keeper list anytime soon, I would strongly consider making alternative plans.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

The biggest concern the Chargers are facing is the possible holdouts of Vincent Jackson and Tackle Marcus McNeill and not LaDainian Tomlinson’s departure. It appears unlikely that they will have the services of these two key players any time soon.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
The Chargers should start the fantasy playoffs with a bang in a Week 14 match-up with Kansas City at home. Next they face the Niners at home before playing the Bengals in Cincinnati in the fantasy championship.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Philip Rivers – Losing Vincent Jackson would hurt, but Rivers would make do. He would still have Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee have potential. Plus, Darren Sproles is effective catching the ball out of the backfield.

Antonio Gates – Despite his decline, LT still scored12 TDs. It’s hard to imagine rookie Ryan Matthews will punch in that many. Gates should get plenty of looks in the red zone and a return to double-digit TDs is highly likely. If V-Jax does holdout, Gates will get more looks. He could easily be the top scoring TE in 2010.

Four Star Fantasy Options
Ryan Matthews – I know he’s only a rookie, but he is in a good situation. If McNeill does hold out, bump him down to a three star. Matthews should get plenty of carries between the 20s. He could yield some red zone carries to Darren Sproles because of Sproles’ versatility, but the one-yard plunges should belong to Matthews.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Darren Sproles – Sproles did not have the season many expected him to, but still finished with 840 total yards and 7 TDs. He should be able to at least match those numbers, and even top them if Matthews struggles to adjust to the speed of the NFL.

Vincent Jackson – If he doesn’t hold out, you can easily move him up to the five star level. He’s that talented. He’s big, he’s fast, and is a good bet for 1000+ yards and 10+ TD if, and it’s a big if, he can come to terms with the front office.

Malcom Floyd – If Jackson holds out, you can move Floyd up to at least a 3.5 star rating. He’s a big play threat averaging 17.2 yards per catch the past two seasons. He could produce a 1000 yards season if given enough looks.

Chargers Defense/Special Teams – They aren’t the force they once were, but the do play the Chiefs twice (Weeks 1, 14), Raiders twice (5, 13), Seahawks (3), and Rams (6).

Two Star Fantasy Options
Legedu Naanee – Naanee could add a star if V-Jax sits out. He has good size (6’2″, 220), but has yet been given the opportunity to show what he can do. There is a bit of risk in drafting Naanee, but do remember who his QB is.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

The Chargers are a team who are perpetually in pursuit of a top-level wide receiver.  Since Keenan McCardell in 2005, no receiver has caught more than 59 balls in a season and that came last year when Vincent Jackson showed signs of emerging as that potentially headlining threat.

Since being drafted in the second round of the 2005 draft, he has made slow, but steady progress.  His rookie season was shortened by injuries as he missed the first five games of the year, certainly stunting his growth.  He ultimately played in just eight games, picking up just three catches.

In 2006 he started to become a bigger part of the offense, appearing in all 16 games (and even starting 7).  While he had 27 catches for 453 yards, he did score 6 TD giving us a glimpse of his abilities.

When the team released Keenan McCardell prior to the 2007 and saw Eric Parker go down with an injury, Jackson was thrust into the starting role but was unable to fully emerge as a go to guy.  He did catch 41 balls for 623 yards, but had just 3 TD, falling short of expectations.

Last season, his second full year as a starter, things changed.  While he only had 59 catches, he showed his ability as a big play guy, amassing 1,098 yards and 7 TD.  His 18.6 yards per reception was third behind Bernard Berrian (20.1) and Justin Gage (19.1), for receivers with over 600 yards receiving.

Despite missing some time this preseason with a sprained finger, the growth he has shown the past few seasons shows that he could be on the precipice of fully breaking out.  He has a solid quarterback in Philip Rivers throwing him the ball.  He has little competition atop the depth chart. 

He has a running game, headed by LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles that should force teams to focus on that instead of on him.  I know people want to say that Tomlinson has lost a step and is in for some problems this season but I’m not buying it.  As I’ve been saying for a while (which you can see by reading my comparison of Tomlinson and Matt Forte by clicking here), when a down season consists of over 1,100 yards and 11 TD, I’m not really worried. 

Let’s also not forget about Antonio Gates, one of the most prolific tight ends in history, who forces his own attention in the passing game.  Teams need to account for him, treating him like a wide receiver, meaning double teaming Jackson will be nearly impossible.

The biggest obstacle for Jackson could be finding his way into the end zone.  Gates is going to be the target in the red zone, scoring at least 8 TD for the fifth consecutive season in 2008.  You also have Tomlinson, who had 1 TD through the air, on top of his ground attack.  It was the first season since 2002 that he didn’t score at least 17 TD, and I would expect a rebound in his future.

There are only so many TDs to go around, so he may struggle to even match his total from last season.  I think it’s possible that he does, but I wouldn’t expect him to exceed it, which certainly does limit his value slightly.

While I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly emerge as a 100-reception receiver, further progression would make sense.  As for what I’m projecting him for:

Receiving – 74 receptions, 1,190 yards, 7 TD

Jackson is the perfect high upside guy to take as a #2 WR.  His current ADP is 50.71, so he’s going early in the fifth round.  That seems like a perfect fit and if he is on the board when I’m picking there, I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

What do you think of Jackson?  Will he take the next step or will he regress in 2009?