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Fantasy Football Forum

25 November 2008


Fantasy Football Forum

How did Week 12 go for you?  Hopefully better than mine.

I’m in six leagues so I’ll recap each one.

KFFL Analysis League (PPR League) - Housh got me off to a slow start.  Not quite as slow as Willie Parker for my opponent.  Matt Cassel and Maurice Jones-Drew were great.  T.O., Baltimore D, and Calvin Johnson were great for my opponent.  Brady Quinn, Correll Buckhalter and Greg Olsen stunk for him.  Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and Neil Rackers got me in the afternoon games.  Fitz didn’t do much.  Wash D, Cooley and Randle El didn’t do much either.  Donal Driver was my last hope, and he didn’t deliver.
Record:  6-6

Cage Match League (The Legend vs. Awesome) - I fell asleep at the wheel and left Brandon Jacobs in.  T.O., Boldin, and Chicago D kicked my butt.  Jay Cutler, Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, and Dallas Clark took it easy on me.  Peyton Manning, Clinton Portis, and Tampa D were solid for me.  Reggie Wayne and Antonio Gates stunk.  Awesome continued his rally.
Record:  7-5

LEV League - Big Ben got my opponent off to a fast start.  Randy Moss destroyed me.  MJD and Dwayne Bowe were solid.  McGahee didn’t score a point for him.  T.O. was awesome for me.  Gostkowski was good.  Ronnie Brown didn’t do much.  Philip Rivers tried to save the day, but Reggie Wayne didn’t do his part and I lost. 
Record:  6-6

Fantasy Sports Depot League -  Ted Ginn, Jr. and Thomas Jones had great games against me.   I sat Randy Moss…doh.  Calvin Johnson was solid.  Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai took it to me.  Lance Moore tried to get me back in the game, but Aaron Rodgers mistakes kept me from making a great comeback.
Record:  5-7

My Keeper League - Santonio Holmes had a nice start for me.  Housh sucked.  Hines Ward sucked for my opponent.  Marshawn Lynch and Tampa D were great for me.  Owen Daniels sucked.  T.O., Tony Gonzalez, and Baltimore D killed me.  Thankfully David Akers did nothing.  McFadden went off on me.  Of course.  Fitz disappointed.  Peyton Manning needed to step up big time for me to have a shot.  He didn’t.  I needed a miracle from Ryan Grant on Monday.  That didn’t happen.
Record:  4-8

No Kicker League -  Housh sucked.  Dwayne Bowe had a decent game for me.  Calvin Johnson played well for my opponent.  Ronnie Brown and Chris Johnson stunk for my opponent.  He left Brandon Jacobs in.  Kurt Warner was solid for me.  McFadden was great.  Steve Smith went off on me.  Peyton Manning tried to do me in, but I held on.
Record:  10-2

Weekly Record:  1-5 
Season Record:  38-34

That’s how my weekend of fantasy football went. How did you do?

Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger
- 17 of 30 for 243 yards, TD, 3 carries for 13 yards, TD
Sage Rosenfels - 24 of 32 for 275 yards, TD, 2 INTs
David Garrard - 27 of 45 for 317 yards, TD, 2 INTs
Trent Edwards - 24 of 32 for 273 yards, 2 TDs, 6 carries for 38 yards, 2 TDs
Tyler Thigpen - 17 of 31 got 240 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 carries for 29 yards
Matt Cassel - 30 of 43 for 415 yards, 3 TDs, INT, 2 carries for 14 yards, TD
Chad Pennington - 24 of 41 for 341 yards, 3 TDs, INT
Tony Romo - 23 of 39 for 341 yards, 3 TDs
Shaun Hill - 21 of 33 for 303 yards, 2 TDs, INT
Jake Delhomme - 21 of 35 for 295 yards, TD, 2 carries for 18 yards, TD
Matt Ryan - 17 of 27 for 259 yards
Eli Manning - 26 of 33 for 240 yards, 3 TDs
Kurt Warner - 32 of 52 for 351 yard, TD, INT
Peyton Manning - 32 of 44 for 255 yards, 2 TDs, INT
Philip Rivers - 24 of 31 for 288 yards, 2 TDs
Drew Brees - 20 of 26 for 323 yards, 4 TDs
Aaron Rodgers - 23 of 41 for 248 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 8 carries for 36 yards, TD

Running Backs
Matt Forte
- 20 carries for 132 yards, 2 TDs, 2 catches for 14 yards
Thomas Jones - 27 carries for 96 yards, 3 catches for 21 yards, TD
Adrian Peterson - 17 carries for 80 yards, TD
Maurice Jones-Drew - 3 carries for 4 yards, 9 catches for 113 yards
Warrick Dunn - 14 carries for 90 yards, TD, 5 catches for 37 yards
Marshawn Lynch - 20 carries for 79 yards, TD
Jamaal Charles - 2 carries for 22 yards, 3 catches for 45 yards, TD
Kevin Faulk - 8 carries for 53 yards, TD, 6 catches for 52 yards
Marion Barber III - 19 carries for 59 yards, 7 catches for 50 yards
Le’Ron McClain - 18 carries for 88 yards, TD
Justin Fargas - 24 carries for 107 yards
Darren McFadden - 10 carries for 38 yards, 2 TDs, 2 catches for 14 yards
Peyton Hillis - 17 carries for 74 yards, TD
Clinton Portis - 29 carries for 143 yards, 2 catches for 16 yards
DeAngelo Williams - 19 carries for 101 yards, TD, 2 catches for 19 yards
Michael Turner - 24 carries for 117 yards, 4 TDs
Derrick Ward - 20 carries for 69 yards, TD, 4 catches for 30 yards
Tim Hightower - 11 carries for 21 yards, 2 TDs
LT - 21 carries for 84 yards, 3 catches for 30 yards
Joseph Addai - 16 carries for 70 yards, 7 catches for 31 yards
Pierre Thomas - 15 carries for 87 yards, 2 TDs, 3 catches for 34 yards

Wide Receivers
Kevin Walter
- 7 catches for 93 yards, TD
Andre Johnson - 10 catches for 116 yards
Laveranues Coles - 7 catches for 88 yards, TD
Ike Hilliard - 2 catches for 51 yards, TD
Calvin Johnson - 3 catches for 66 yards, TD
Lee Evans - 5 catches for 110 yards
Josh Reed - 5 catches for 50 yards, TD
Dwayne Bowe - 3 catches for 58 yards, TD
Mark Bradley - 2 catches for 52 yards, TD
Randy Moss - 8 catches for 125 yards, 3 TDs
Wes Welker - 8 catches for 120 yards
Greg Camarillo - 6 catches for 75 yards, TD
Terrell Owens - 7 catches for 213 yards, TD
Isaac Bruce - 8 catches for 125 yards, TD
Mark Clayton - 2 catches for 76 yards,TD
Ashley Lelie - 4 catches for 92 yards, TD
Steve Smith - 8 catches for 168 yards
Anquan Boldin - 11 catches for 87 yards, TD
Anthony Gonzalez - 6 catches for 95 yards, TD
Vincent Jackson - 2 catches for 57 yards, TD
Lance Moore - 5 catches for 115 yards, 2 TDs
Greg Jennings - 8 catches for 101 yards, TD
Marques Colston - 1 catch for 70 yards, TD

Tight Ends
Tony Gonzalez
– 10 catches for 113 yards, TD 

 

 

There were some unusual heroes on Sunday.  There always are.  Let’s take a look at them and see if they are worthy of your fantasy rosters.

QB
Joe Flacco
- Flacco put up a decent fantasy number this week with 183 passing yards and 2 TDs without throwing and INT.  He was just 12 of 26 passing though.  I don’t see him as worthy of a roster spot though. 
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

RBs
Ahmad Hall & DeShaun Foster - They each scored on late TD passes.  It’s great for them, but it meant nothing for fantasy teams.  If I had to pick which one has more value, I’d take Foster.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

WRs
Josh Reed
- In his first game since Week 8 Reed had five catches for 50 yards and a score.  Even when they were up big the Bills kept passing.  Their upcoming schedule is favorable and their Offense appears to be clicking.  Reed is worth a spot on your roster, but you would have to be hurting to put him in your lineup. 
Ruling:  Get ‘em.   

Mark Clayton - Clayton had 76 receiving yards an a score.  While his yards per catch looks great with only two receptions, that’s not a number that catches my eye when I’m looking to add a player.  He’s had just four catches twice this year with four games with one or fewer receptions.  He had two games, this one and a 4 for 87 and a score in Week 9.  He can’t be counted on. 
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

Ashley Lelie - Lelie had a nice game with 92 yards and a score on 4 catches.  Despite the Win, I’m not ready to rely on a Raider WR.  The fact that this game was against his former team may have served as motivation.
Ruling:  Don’t Sweat ‘em.

TE
Heath Miller
- Miller has been banged up of late, but his 4 catches for 44 yards and a score after three games off is encouraging.  The fact that he has extra rest because of the Thursday game means he should be ready to go again next week.
Ruling:  Get ‘em.

There you have it.  I hope I provided you some good info while you make your fantasy team waiver wire adjustments.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Tyler Thigpen
(24.25) over Eli Manning (11.35) WHICH I WON.
Marshawn Lynch (23.7) over Brandon Jacobs (19.3) WHICH I WON.
Ricky Williams (5.5) over Willis McGahee (2.5) WHICH I WON.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (20.9) beat Santonio Holmes (6.3)  WHICH I LOST. 
Kevin Walter (7.9) beat Kevin Curtis (6.4) WHICH I LOST. 
Super Stetch:  Jamal Lewis () beat BenJarvus Green-Ellis (0.9) WHICH I LOST (BADLY).

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1  
Overall:  3-3  

Season Record
Regular Picks:  34-21
Super Stretch Picks:  4-6
Overall:  38-27

Quarterback
  
Jeff Garcia over Donovan McNabb 
Garcia once replaced an injured McNabb on the Eagles.  Now I’m suggesting that he replace him in fantasy lineups.  Garcia has a soft matchup against Detroit while McNabb will have his hands full in Baltimore.

Running Backs
   
Ryan Grant over Ronnie Brown
Ryan Grant has been running well of late, and his matchup with New Orleans should keep that trend going.  Last time Ronnie Brown played the Patriots he carved them up with the Wildcat Formation.  I’m guessing Bill will have an answer for him this time.

  
Darren McFadden over Chris Johnson
It’s amazing that Chris Johnson has left Run DMC in the dust as badly as he has.  Of course Johnson was draftd by an excellent organization and McFadden gets paychecks signed by one Al Davis.  This week though I think the original higher profile guy gets his vs. Denver.  Chris Johnson faces a much stiffer test against the Jets.  

Wide Receiver
  

Terrell Owens over Brandon Marshall      
I took advantag of the matchup earlier in the year, and I’ll go back to the well.  Romo made an effort to get T.O. involved in the Offense last week.  Couple that with him facing his former team (San Francisco) and I see a nice week for T.O.  Meanwhile Marshall will have to battle Nnamdi Asomugha.  He just doesn’t get thrown on.

  
Santana Moss over Calvin Johnson
Talk about a size differential.  This is like David vs. Goliath.  I’ll take David (Santana) because he has a nice matchup against the Seahawks (278.6 ypg), who have been killed by the pass this year.  Megatron has a much tougher matchup against Tampa Bay (194.3 ypg).  Tampa has allowed their share of TDs (13 to the Seahawks’ 15), but I’m counting on Ronde Barber to kep Calvin in check.  

SUPER STRETCH  

 

 
Peyton Hillis over Brian Westbrook
I know I’m off my rocker.  I’m doing it any way.  Hillis has a nice matchup against Oakland while Westbrook draws the Ravens.  I’m banking on a short TD for Hillis to have a chance.  One thing is for sure, you can’t argue that this one isn’t a Super Stretch.

NFL Picks – Week 12

19 November 2008

These picks are from 2008. Click here for my 2009 Week 12 Picks.
Click here to check out my fantasy football info.

Last Week:   11-4-1  (NE. ATL, PHI [half], WASH, BUF) let me down
Lock Picks:  0-1-1

Previous Lock to Win Picks:  NE (W), NYG (W),  BUF (W), SD (W), DAL (W), WAS (L), HOU (W), NYJ (W), JAX (L), CAR (W), PHI (Tie)
Previous Lock to Lose Picks:  STL (W), BUF (L), CIN (W), KC (L), MIA (L), DET (W), SEA (W), NO (L), OAK (W), CHI (W), HOU (W)

Overall Lock Picks: 14-7-1 (.659)
Season Total:  103-56-1 (.647)

Week 12 NFL Picks
Lock to Win:  Chicago
Lock to Lose (can’t be same game as above):  San Diego

These picks are from 2008. Click here for my 2009 Week 12 Picks.

Week 12 NFL Picks
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Cleveland over Houston
Dallas over San Francisco
Tampa Bay over Detroit
Tennessee over New York Jets
Kansas City over Buffalo
Chicago over St. Louis (Winner Lock)
New England over Miami
Jacksonville over Minnesota
Baltimore over Philadelphia
Denver over Oakland
Carolina over Atlanta
Arizona over New York Giants
Washington over Seattle
Indianapolis over San Diego (Loser Lock)
Green Bay over New Orleans

I’m going to look at the matchups each week and pick five fantasy starters that could be in for a tough week. Here’s a look at players who could struggle this week.

Quarterback
Donovan McNabb – Donovan does not have his best games when he’s heavily pressured. That goes for most QBs. McNabb will likely see that scenario play out next week as he takes on the Ravens in Baltimore. If you have an attractive alternative, this is the week to use it.
Bonus – I won’t say he’s a pitfall, but Kurt Warner is facing the Giants so I would downgrade your expectations.

Running Backs
Chris Johnson – Johnson will have his hands full finding running lanes against a tough Jet Run D. He’ll have to break one because I don’t see him pounding that D or a ton of yards. You already know anything in close will go to LenDale.

Maurice Jones-Drew – For MJD to be effective this week he’ll have to catch the ball out of the backfield. Otherwise he could have a tough time getting free against a stout Minnesota Viking Run D. Kevin and Pat Williams clog up the middle and Antoine Winfield provides great support from the Cornerback position.

Wide Receiver
Brandon Marshall – It’s not so much about Marshall as it is a about the man who will be draped all over him. Of couse I’m talking about Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha. He has been shutting down lead receivers all year long. Marshall is physical enough to hold his own, but I wouldn’t expect a big effort from him this week.

Calvin Johnson – Johnsn is another one I’m downgrading, in part because of who he’ll likely be covered by (Ronde Barber) and in part because of the lack of quality in whichever QB is delivering the ball to him. He’s still big enough to go up and get a score, but I’m not expecting big yardage from Megatron.


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