LestersLegends.com

Written by Eric Stashin of www.rotoprofessor.com

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

The Washington Redskins have three established, veteran running backs on their roster, not too mention youngsters Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams.  Let’s take a look at the battle for playing time and try to determine who may have fantasy value for the upcoming season:

Clinton Portis
The odds on favorite to emerge as the Redskins starter, when healthy he has proven to be among the best running backs in the league.  In the six seasons where he has played at least 13 games, his worst season is 1,262 yards and only once has he had less then nine rushing TDs.

He’s also a receiving threat out of the backfield, routinely topping 30 receptions.  The addition of Donovan McNabb, who knows how to integrate the RB into the passing game from his time with Brian Westbrook, certainly makes this seem like a perfect marriage.

He’ll turn 29-years old on September 1, so there certainly is a chance that he’ll start slowing down, but he’s not over-the-hill by any stretch.  He’s also coming off a year where he played just eight games due to concussion problems, the more worrisome proposition.

Of course, let’s not forget that Portis thrived under Mike Shanahan’s system when both were in Denver.  He’s the running back I’d draft, if I were going to go with the muddled Redskins backfield, as long as I get him as my RB3.  There’s too much of a risk to draft him as more then that.

The Redskins made a big splash by adding Donovan McNabb in the offseason. After a couple years of actually having some weapons in the passing game, McNabb takes a major step back with Washington’s offering. He always seems to find a way to make it work, so expect the Skins’ offense to improve.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They open up the fantasy playoffs against Tampa Bay at home in Week 14. They then go on the road to face Dallas and Jacksonville.

Five Star Fantasy Options
None

Four Star Fantasy Options
Donovan McNabb – Normally I would give him a five star rating, but he does have an injury history, and he has the aforementioned drop-off in talent at WR. Perhaps his best options are TEs Chris Cooley and Fred Davis.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Clinton Portis – The Redskins brought in competition in the form of Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. McNabb’s presence should open things up for the ground game. If he can stay healthy, Portis brings the most to the table.

Santana Moss – Moss isn’t the player he once was, but he hasn’t had a QB the caliber of McNabb, perhaps ever. He is notoriously inconsistent, but he should have some big games still left in him. Brian Orakpo should pile up the sacks.

Chris Cooley – The Skins have a good problem having two talented TEs. Mike Shanahan is gifted enough to figure out a way to get both Cooley and Davis involved in the passing game.

Redskins Defense/Special Teams – The Redskins will need Albert Haynesworth to make nice with the team to remain a decent fantasy defense. Highlights include the Rams (Week 3), Lions (Week 8), and the Bucs (Week 14).

Two Star Fantasy Options
Larry Johnson – If Portis were to go down or finally hits the wall from the extensive use in his career, LJ would be the one to step in and carry the load. I think he still has some football left in him. It’s just a matter of how many  opportunities he’ll get.

Devin Thomas – He hasn’t lived up to his expectations yet, but McNabb should help. He is not afraid to rely on young receivers. Thomas has good size (6’2″, 215) and speed. He just has to put it all together.

Fred Davis – Davis stepped in when Cooley went down and ran with his opportunity. He had 41 catches for 464 yards and 6 TDs in the Skins last ten games. The Skins can’t ignore that kind of production, especially with a sub par receiving corps.

One Star Fantasy Options
Willie Parker – If he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce in spots for the Skins. That won’t help your fantasy team go. Unless he can earn the #2 RB gig, he’s not a viable fantasy option.

Malcom Kelly – Kelly is a 6’4″ receiver that has failed to score a TD in 21 games. That should change with McNabb, but don’t expect him to transform into a stud.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Now that we went through the majority of the #1 & #2 Running Backs, it’s time to look at RB3s.  These Backs are ones you would use in a flex position (if you have one in your league format), as bye week replacements, or spot starters based on matchups.  If you load up elsewhere early, they could serve as RB2.

Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay -  Ward ran for 1025 yards and 2 TDs on 182 carries for an amazing 5.6 yards per carry.  He added 41 receptions for 384 yards.  Not bad for a RB that didn’t even start for his team.  He left the incredible Offensive Line that the Giants provide him, but he should get more touches.  Don’t expect him to get too many carries though as Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams will likely be in the mix as well.  I can see Graham handing the red zone chances.  Ward’s best matchups appear to be against New Orleans in Weeks 11 & 16.  The rest of his schedule is pretty tough.  I expect Ward to produce 1200 total yards and 5 TDs.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice had decent production last year despite a limited role.  He had 454 yards on 107 carries (4.2 ypc) and added 273 yards on 33 receptions.  With Le’Ron McClain sliding over to Fullback, and McGahee moving to the backup role, Rice should get a much heavier workload in 2009.  Though McClain will get the ball at the strip and McGahee will get his touches, Rice should be a solid RB3, and even a nice RB2 in PPR leagues.  The Ravens have a some great matchups against Kansas City in Week 1, Cleveland in Weeks 3 & 10, Cincinnati in Weeks 5 & 9, Denver in Week 8.  Unfortunately they play the Raiders in Week 17.  Their fantasy playoff schedule starts off sweet with a game against Detroit.  Then they face the Bears and the Steelers.  If McGahee stays healthy, he’ll cut into Rice’s production, but I think he should be good for 1100 total yards, 4 TDs, and 55 receptions.

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs – Larry Johnson reported to training camp lighter, hoping improved conditioning will lead to a more successful 2009 season.  Even more than his weight, though, has been his attitude.  He has stayed out of the headlines.  He’s not going to return to his old form, but he should be able to build upon the 847 yards on an impressive 4.5 ypc last year.  He only scored 5 TDs, but with Tony Gonzalez gone, that number could easily doubt next year.  Jamaal Charles will push him for time, especially on third downs, but that could help to keep LJ fresh.  LJ is a back who could put up first round numbers, which is sweet considering you can get him in the third or fourth round.  He loses a cushy matchup with Denver in Week 17, but still faces Oakland in Weeks 2 & 10 and Denver in Week 13.  He does have some tough matchups early against Baltimore in Week 1, Philly in Week 3, NYG in Week 4, Washington in Week 6, and Pittsburgh in Week 11.  He’s a good Buy Low candidate if he gets off to a slow start because his fantasy playoff matchups against Buffalo, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are sweet.  There is a huge variance in the numbers LJ could produce.  I think he has 1100 total yards and 8 TDs.

LenDale White – Tennessee Titans – LenDale retired the LenWhale moniker (at least temporarily) by putting down the tequila.  Even though he’s in better shape, I don’t see LenDale having anything close to the year he had last year.  Let’s face it, 15 TD seasons don’t come along very often.  With Albert Haynesworth residing in Washington, will Tennessee’s Defense be good enough to suffocate teams and allow LenDale to slowly wear them down in the fourth quarter?  That could be a big reason why LenDale gets much fewer than the 2000 carries he had last year.  The Titans don’t really have any cakewalks on their schedule until Week 14 against the Rams.  It’s hard to use a guy in the fantasy playoffs when you’re not sure how many touches he’s going to get in the game.  LenDale is nice to own, but he’ll be tough to use unless Chris Johnson goes down.  I’m guessing LenDale has about 600 total yards with 10 TDs.

Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders -  Run DMC had a pretty forgettable Rookie season thanks to a toe injury.  He had one monster week (164 yards. 1 TD vs. KC in Week 2) and one great week (10 carries for 38 yards, 2 TDs vs. Denver in Week 12).  He actually had more 50+ yard receiving games (3) than rushing (1).  Still, I believe he has too much talent to not have a much better Sophomore season.  He’ll be even more of an asset in PPR leagues, and I could see him throwing a couple passes this year to keep Defenses on their toes.  He has some good matchups this year against Kansas City in Weeks 2 & 10, Denver in Week 3 & 15, and Cincinnati in Week 11.  If you can get by the opening round of the fantasy playoffs against Washington, you’ll get the benefit of facing Denver and Cleveland in Weeks 15 & 16.  I’m predicting 1200 total yards and 8 TDs for McFadden.

Willie Parker – Pittsburgh Steelers – Willie Parker will be pushed by Rashard Mendenhall this year, but I think he’ll hold him off for the most part, assuming he stays healthy.  I just wouldn’t count on him for anything more than a bye week alternative or spot matchup Back.  Those matchups are Weeks 3 & 10 against Cincinnati, Weeks 6 & 14 vs. Cleveland, Week 5 against Detroit, Week 9 against Denver, Week 11 against KC, and Week 13 against Oakland.  I’m guessing Fast Willie has 1000 total yards and 6 TDs.

Jamal Lewis – Cleveland  Browns – Jamal Lewis turns 30 this month and though he managed another 1000 yard season, he appears to be on the decline.  He is going to be challenged for carries by Jerome Harrison and possibly Rookie James Davis.  They both can provide a burst that Jamal just can’t muster.  Mangini will try to limit the workload early as Jamal recovers from ankle surgery, which would be unfortunate because they have three games against soft run D’s in the first four weeks.  Minnesota (assuming Pat & Kevin Williams are suspended) in Week 1, Denver in Week 2, and Cincinnati in Week 4.  Later they face Detroit and Cincy in Weeks 11 & 12.  The Bengals actually have a pretty sweet fantasy playoff schedule with tilts against KC and Oakland in Weeks 15 & 16, though the Browns could be playing for the future by then.  I expect 700 yards and 6 TDs from Jamal in 2009.

Cedric Benson – Cincinnati Bengals – Cedric Benson was a fantasy hero last year with two 150+ total yard games in Weeks 15 & 16.  He managed just 3.5 ypc for the year though and his plodding style may not work as well considering they face Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice.  They do have some pretty nice matchups though against Denver in Week 1, Cleveland in Weeks 4 & 12, Oakland in Week 11, and Detroit in Week 13.  His fantasy playoffs heroics will be hard to repeat against Minnesota and San Diego, but he could have a big finish in Week 16 against KC.  I’m predicting 900 total yards and 6 TDs for Benson.

The Champs are in good shape.  They are fine with Big Ben at QB, but Byron Leftwich will likely test the free agent waters in search of a place to start.  Detroit may be a good fit as a stopgap before Matthew Stafford is ready to take over.  Charlie Batch is also a free agent, but he’ll likely return as the backup as the Steelers groom Dennis Dixon to take over that role.  The Steelers should have a glut of RBs next year with Willie Parker, a healthy Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, and Gary Russell.  Hines Ward and Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes will be back to lead the wideouts.  Nate Washington is a free agent and will likely move on for a chance to start.  Limas Sweed will be given the opportunity the opportunity to win that 3rd receiver slot.  Heath Miller was very impressive at TE down the stretch.  He and Matt Spaeth form a solid TE team.  The team needs to improve in the trenches.  Tackles Marvel Smith, Max Starks, and Willie Colon  and Guards Chris Kemoeatu and Trai Essex all are free agents.  They won’t be able to lock them all up so expect changes on that line.  That may not be a bad thing as they allowed 49 last year, which was good for 29th in the league.
 
On Defense they are working to lock up Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison.  CB Bryant McFadden is the only key free agent so the Steelers will make it a priority to get a deal done with him.  No major changes necessary for this team.  They can simply make a few tweaks and will still have a championship caliber club.

KFFL Free Agent Tracker:

I continue the Super Bowl comparisons with a look at the Running Backs.  Neither team features an elite back, but they both get contributions from multiple players.

Willie Parker, in my opinion, is the back most capable of delivering a big game in Super Bowl XLIII.  He didn’t have a banner year (210 carries for 791 yards & 5 TDs), but turned in a 146 yard, 2 TD performance against San Diego in the Divisional Round.  He was limited to 47 yards on 24 carries in the AFC Championship, but he faced Baltimore.  Arizona has been playing great D in the playoffs, but they are no Baltimore.  Parker had 93 yards on 10 carries (including a 75 yard TD) in his first Super Bowl appearance.

Mewelde Moore is one of the most versatile Running Backs in the league and one of Pittsburgh’s unsung heroes.  In the mold of New England’s Kevin Faulk, Moore had 588 rushing yards with 5 TDs and 40 catches for 320 yards and a TD.  He hasn’t been used much in the postseason, but I sense he might have a bigger role against Arizona.

Finally, Gary Russell (5’11, 215 lbs) can be used for the tough yardage.  He didn’t do much in the regular season (28 carries for 77 yards), but he did punch it in three times.  He added a TD against San Diego.  I don’t see him being a big factor.

For Arizona, Edgerrin James has re-emerged as a feature back during the playoffs.  It actually started in Week 17 when he ran for 100 yars on 14 carries.  He had 207 yards and a TD in wins over Atlanta, Carolina, and Philadelphia.  This after managing just 514 yards and 3 TDs in the regular season.  There is no player I am rooting for more in the Super Bowl than Edge.  I think he got a bum deal in Indy (although it was a move they had to make based on economics).  He has always been a complete back.  Despite his awesome quote “”I didn’t come here to block. I’m not an offensive lineman”, he has always been good at picking up the blitz.  As much as I like Edge, I think this could be his last hurrah in Arizona and likely as a feature back.  He’s on the wrong side of thiry and doesn’t seem willing to accept a backup role gracefully.  Hard to blame him, because that’s all he really knows.  I’d like to think he can continue his playoff success against Pittsburgh, but I’d just be kidding myself.  Pittsburgh’s D is just too tough.  Arizona is going to have to use it’s bread and butter…the passing game.  You can hardly expect a TD out of him because that’s Hightower’s territory.

Tim Hightower is a beast.  He reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from Leroy Hoard.  “If you need one yard, I’ll get you three.  If you need four yards, I’ll get you three”.  Talk about a guy who knew his limitations.  He averaged just 2.8 yards per carry in the regular season. He did score 10 TDs though.  Edge has got a lot of credit for stepping up his game in the regular season, but Hightower has as well.  After rushing for 399 yards in 16 games he has 132 in three and a more respectable 3.9 yards per carry.  He also has scored (1 rushing, 2 receiving) in each game.  To me he’s the back most likely to reach paydirt.

J.J. Arrington is a guy who quietly played a nice role for Arizona this year.  He averaged 6.0 yards per carry for 187 yards and a score.  He also caught 29 passes out of the backfield for 255 yards and a score.  He’s  been a pretty effective Kick Returner averaging 25.6 yards per carry with a score.  Like Mewelde Moore he hasn’t played a prominent role this offseason, but is the type of player who could be a sneaky hero on Super Bowl Sunday. 

Advantage:  Even