Is Todd Frazier Ready to Blow Up?

Apr 10, 2013

Todd Frazier
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Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier is hitting .375 with six runs, three home runs, 10 RBI and a stolen base through eight games. While he won’t continue on anything near his pace for a .375-122-61-203-20 line, has he done enough to convince fantasy baseball owners that he’s ready to blow up in 2013?
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Frazier .273 last year with 55 runs, 19 home runs, 67 RBI, and three stolen bases in 128 games, showing that the power is somewhat believable. At the Triple-A level he hit 75 home runs in 542 games, which extrapolates to 22.4 in a 162-game schedule. At the big league level, his home run total extrapolates to 25.6 in a 162-game schedule based on his 28 bombs in 177 games.
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Frazier is off to a great start against right-handed pitching. Last year he hit .262 with a .817 OPS, compared to .298 and .857 against left-handed pitching. He is feasting against southpaws (.333, 1.000) in the early part of the season, but he’s been even better against righties. Frazier is hitting .400 with a 1.250 OPS against them.
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Frazier has done all of his damage at home as he has gone hitless in seven at-bats away from the Great American Ball Park. Last year he was actually better on the road. At home Frazier hit .258 with a .786 OPS. He hit 10 home runs in 209 at bats. On the road Frazier hit .286 with a .871 OPS, including nine home runs in 213 at bats.
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It’s not like Frazier is facing mediocre pitching. He went one for two against both Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Stephen Strasburg. He also went one for three against C.J. Wilson. Three of his RBI have come against that quartet.
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While I don’t expect Frazier to be this year’s Edwin Encarnación or José Bautista, I do think he will continue to put up solid numbers. His home/road and left/right splits are favorable. Not to mention hitting behind Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce in the lineup should lead to plenty of RBI opportunities.
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